FinanceResolved
RBA raises rates by 25 bps at Sept 2026 meeting?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
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Resolved questions
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will WTI active-month hit $100 or $95 one-minute extremes in week of Sep 14, 2026?
The intraday price break below $95 is now fully substantiated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains absent; the previous judgment is maintained.
Hit or broke below $100
FinanceResolved
Fed raises rates at Sept 2026 FOMC meeting?
The 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is a settled fact, with market attention shifting to the subsequent rate path for the rest of the year.
Rate hike by October meeting
FinanceResolved
Fed rates unchanged after Sep 2026?
Expectations for no rate change have hit absolute zero. The information vacuum and baseline likelihood bottoming out together confirm this scenario has been completely priced out.
No
WorldResolved
Oman and Iran announce Hormuz shipping agreement by Sept 14, 2026?
The deadline has passed with no agreement announced; the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to freedom of navigation, but this does not alter the fact that the agreement failed to materialize.
No
FinanceResolved
US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.0% before 2027?
Triggered and maintained: All 11 reports in this period continue to confirm the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breached 5.0% during September 15 trading, with the baseline likelihood rising to 100%.
Yes
TechnologyResolved
OpenAI's Astra debuts on Arena with score ≥1490?
GPT-6 Astra's Arena Leaderboard debut has still not occurred, with the market reference price dropping to zero and no new developments.
No
TechnologyResolved
OpenAI's Astra model released by Sept 30, 2026?
Astra has been officially released, and the current likelihood has risen to certainty.
Yes
WorldResolved
Iran charges Hormuz fees by Aug 31?
Current likelihood drops to zero, the deadline has passed with no fee-charging event, and the factual basis for the question has completely evaporated.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by Aug 31, 2026?
Current likelihood drops to zero as the deadline passes without a US announcement to end the Iranian blockade, rendering the event impossible.
No
FinanceResolved
Bitcoin reaches $82,500 in August?
The August window has closed with Bitcoin failing to reach $82,500; the event is definitively resolved as not occurring.
No
Question trackingResolved
Djokovic wins 2026 Men's US Open?
The current likelihood has dropped to zero, with Djokovic's prospects of playing in and winning the tournament now completely closed off.
No
FinanceResolved
Ethereum dips to $2,400 in August?
August has ended with Ethereum not dipping to $2,400, confirming a 'No' outcome, and the current likelihood remains at 100%.
Yes
WorldResolved
US ceasefire against Iran continues through Aug 31?
Current likelihood has fallen to zero, with the ceasefire judged to have completely collapsed.
No
FinanceResolved
Bitcoin reaches $80,000 in August?
Current likelihood hit 100%, yet the news vacuum remains absolute and only about 7 days remain.
Yes
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by Aug 22, 2026?
The deadline has passed, current likelihood drops to zero, with no US announcement to end the Iranian blockade.
No
WorldResolved
US-Iran 60-day talks extended?
Current likelihood falls to zero with no new events, the judgment that the negotiation window is completely shut remains unchanged.
No
FinanceResolved
Bitcoin reaches $72,500 in August?
Current likelihood remains at 100%, with the target being reached treated as a certainty.
Yes
FinanceResolved
WTI hits $85 in August?
Current likelihood hit 100%, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.
Yes
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 15?
Current likelihood remains at 0%, with no new events in this period and the political preconditions for ending the blockade still absent.
No
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 9?
Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal.
No
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 7?
Current likelihood dropped to zero, with no relevant events occurring in the window.
No
Question trackingResolved
Spider-Man beats Endgame opening?
There is currently no meaningful information to assess the likelihood of the film breaking the record.
Yes
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Jul 31?
The event window closed on July 31, 2026, with current likelihood at zero and no US announcement ending the Iranian blockade.
No