Will WTI active-month hit $100 or $95 one-minute extremes in week of Sep 14, 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI crude oil futures broke below $95 during the September 17 session, but news evidence does not confirm whether this was a 1-minute candlestick extreme.; On September 17, multiple financial media outlets reported a sharp decline in WTI crude oil futures, with prices briefly breaking below the $95 per barrel mark during the session, reaching a low of $94.973. This price action directly satisfies the condition of 'hitting or falling below $95'. However, all reports are based on standard market quotes and do not mention the specific technical indicator of a 1-minute candlestick extreme. Therefore, while the price action strongly supports the outcome of breaking below $95, it cannot be confirmed from the available news whether this price was recorded as a 1-minute candlestick extreme. The baseline likelihood shows the market has fully priced in the 'Hit or fell below $100' outcome (100%), while the baseline likelihood for the 'Hit or fell below $95' outcome was 39.3%. Given that news evidence clearly shows the price has broken below $95, which constitutes a necessary condition for an extreme record, a +5.0 pp news evidence adjustment was applied, raising the final probability from the previous 39.3% to 44.3%.
2. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. News evidence confirms the price broke below $95, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme.; The observation period (the week of September 14, 2026) has ended. All news provided in this period was published on September 16-17, after the observation period, and therefore cannot serve as direct evidence of whether an extreme record occurred during the observation week. Nevertheless, these reports confirm that WTI crude oil futures briefly broke below the $95 per barrel mark during the September 17 session, hitting a low of $94.973. This price action satisfies the necessary condition of 'hitting or breaking below $95,' but none of the reports mention the specific technical indicator of a '1-minute candlestick extreme.' The baseline likelihood shows the '$100' outcome is fully priced in (100%), while the '$95' outcome's baseline likelihood has decreased from 39.3% to 34.5%. As the observation period has passed and no new evidence has emerged, the previous judgment is maintained.
3. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. News confirms the price broke below $95, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme.; The observation period (the week of September 14, 2026) has concluded. The two news reports provided in this period were both published on September 17, after the observation window, and therefore cannot serve as direct evidence for whether an extreme record occurred during the observation period. Nevertheless, these reports confirm that WTI crude oil futures prices briefly fell below the $95 per barrel mark during intraday trading on September 17, hitting a low of $94.973. This price action satisfies the necessary condition of 'hitting or falling below $95,' but none of the reports mention the specific technical indicator of a '1-minute candlestick extreme.' The baseline likelihood shows the 'hit or fell below $100' outcome is fully priced in (100%), while the baseline likelihood for the 'hit or fell below $95' outcome decreased from 34.5% to 31.3%. As the observation period has passed and no new evidence has emerged, the previous judgment is maintained.
4. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. News confirms the price broke below $95, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme.; The observation period (the week of September 14, 2026) has concluded. The two news reports provided in this period were both published on September 17, after the observation window, and therefore cannot serve as direct evidence of an extreme value record occurring within that week. Nevertheless, these reports confirm that WTI crude oil futures briefly fell below the $95 per barrel mark during intraday trading on September 17, hitting a low of $94.973. This price action satisfies the necessary condition of 'reaching or falling below $95,' but none of the reports mention the specific technical indicator of a '1-minute candlestick extreme.' The baseline likelihood shows the '$100' outcome is fully priced in (100%), while the '$95' outcome's baseline likelihood has risen from 31.3% to 34.95%. As the observation period has passed and no new evidence has emerged, the previous judgment is maintained.
5. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. News confirms the price broke below $95 on September 17, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme within the observation period.; The observation period (the week of September 14, 2026) has ended. Two of the three news reports provided, both published on September 17, confirm that WTI crude oil futures prices broke below the $95 per barrel mark during intraday trading, hitting a low of $94.973. However, these reports fall after the observation period and cannot serve as direct evidence of an extreme record occurring within it. A separate report from September 16 shows prices fell to $96.654, not yet breaching the $95 level. None of the reports mention the specific technical indicator of a '1-minute candlestick extreme.' The baseline likelihood shows the 'hit $100' outcome is fully priced at 99.95%, while the 'hit $95' outcome's baseline likelihood rose from 34.95% to 47.35%. As the observation period has passed and no new evidence has emerged, the previous judgment is maintained.
6. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. No new evidence has emerged, and the previous judgment is maintained.; No new news reports appeared within this judgment window. The observation period (the week of September 14, 2026) has ended. Previous news confirmed the price broke below $95 on September 17, but could not confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme within the observation period. Regarding baseline likelihoods, the "hit $100" outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the "hit $95" outcome's baseline likelihood fell from 47.35% to 33.00%. In the absence of new evidence, the previous judgment is maintained.
7. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. New evidence confirms an intraday break below $95 on Sept 17, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme record.; Two new direct reports from CLS on September 17 confirm that WTI crude oil futures traded below the $95 per barrel mark intraday, hitting a low of $94.973. This provides additional price-action support for the 'hit $95' outcome. However, none of the reports address the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. The baseline likelihood for 'hit $100' remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the 'hit $95' outcome's baseline likelihood surged from 33.00% to 46.95%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 level was breached but does not resolve the key uncertainty around the 1-minute extreme record, our judgment on both outcomes is maintained.
8. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. New evidence confirms an intraday break below $95 on Sept 17, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme record.; Nine new direct evidence items were added this period, all from reports within the observation week. Multiple reports confirm that WTI crude oil futures traded below the $95 per barrel mark intraday on September 17, reaching a low of $94.973, providing new price-action support for the 'hit or fell below $95' outcome. However, none of the news mentions a 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for this question. On the baseline likelihoods, the 'hit or fell below $100' outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the 'hit or fell below $95' outcome's baseline likelihood dropped sharply from 46.95% to 33.15%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 level was breached but does not resolve the key uncertainty of the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
9. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. New evidence confirms an intraday break below $95 on Sept 17, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme record.; Eight new direct evidence reports were added this period, all from within the observation week. Multiple reports confirm that WTI crude oil futures traded below the $95 per barrel mark intraday on September 17, with a low of $94.973, providing new price-action support for the 'hit or broke below $95' outcome. However, none of the news mentions a 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for this question. On the baseline likelihood front, the 'hit or broke below $100' outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the baseline likelihood for 'hit or broke below $95' rose from 33.15% to 37.50%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 level was breached but does not resolve the key uncertainty of the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment for both outcomes.
10. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. New evidence confirms an intraday break below $95 on Sept 17, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme record.; Eight new direct reports were added this period, all from within the observation week. Multiple reports confirm that WTI crude oil futures traded below the $95 per barrel mark intraday on September 17, reaching a low of $94.973, providing new price-action support for the 'hit or broke below $95' outcome. However, none of the news mentions a 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for this question. On the baseline likelihood side, the 'hit or broke below $100' outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the baseline likelihood for 'hit or broke below $95' fell from 37.50% to 34.15%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 level was breached but does not resolve the key uncertainty around the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
11. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The observation period has ended. New evidence confirms an intraday break below $95 on Sept 17, but cannot confirm a 1-minute candlestick extreme record.; Six new direct reports were added this period, all from within the observation week. Multiple reports confirm that WTI crude oil futures traded below the $95 per barrel mark intraday on September 17, reaching a low of $94.973, providing additional price-action support for the 'hit or broke below $95' outcome. However, none of the reports mention a 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for this question. On the baseline likelihood side, the 'hit or broke below $100' outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the baseline likelihood for the 'hit or broke below $95' outcome rose from 34.15% to 39.00%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 level was breached but does not resolve the key uncertainty around the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
12. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — New evidence confirms an intraday break below $95, but the 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unconfirmed; the previous judgment is maintained.; A new report from Cailian Press this period reconfirms that WTI crude oil futures traded below $95 per barrel intraday on September 17, hitting a low of $94.973. This provides further direct price-action support for the 'hit $95' outcome. However, like all prior evidence, the report only records the intraday price level and does not address the 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for determining this outcome. The baseline likelihood for 'hit $100' remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the baseline for 'hit $95' has risen from 39.00% to 48.95%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 level was breached but does not resolve the key uncertainty around the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
13. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — New evidence confirms an intraday break below $95, but the 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unconfirmed; the previous judgment is maintained.; A new report from Cailian Press this period reconfirms that WTI crude oil futures traded below $95 per barrel during the September 17 session, hitting a low of $94.973. This provides further direct price-action support for the 'hit $95' outcome. However, like all prior evidence, the report only records intraday price levels and does not address the 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for determining whether this outcome has been met. On the baseline likelihood side, the 'hit $100' outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the 'hit $95' outcome's baseline likelihood has fallen from 48.95% to 36.75%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 threshold was breached but fails to resolve the key uncertainty around the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
14. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — New evidence confirms an intraday break below $95, but the 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unconfirmed; the previous judgment is maintained.; A new report from Cailian Press this period reconfirms that WTI crude oil futures traded below $95 per barrel during the September 17 session, hitting a low of $94.973. This provides further direct price-action support for the 'hit $95' outcome. However, like all prior evidence, the report only records an intraday price level and does not address the 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for determining whether this outcome has been met. On the baseline likelihood side, the 'hit $100' outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the 'hit $95' outcome's baseline likelihood has declined from 36.75% to 32.50%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 threshold was breached but fails to resolve the key uncertainty around the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
15. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Evidence of an intraday break below $95 is further consolidated, but the 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unconfirmed; the previous judgment is maintained.; Five new reports from Cailian Press this period all confirm that WTI crude oil futures traded below $96 per barrel during the September 17 session, with two explicitly recording a break below the $95 mark to a low of $94.973. This provides stronger direct price-action support for the 'hit $95' outcome. However, like all prior evidence, these reports only document intraday price levels and do not address the 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for determining whether this outcome has been met. On the baseline likelihood side, the 'hit $100' outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the 'hit $95' outcome's baseline likelihood rose from 32.50% to 36.40%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 threshold was breached but fails to resolve the key uncertainty around the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment for both outcomes.
16. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Direct evidence of an intraday break below $95 continues to accumulate, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unconfirmed by any report; the previous judgment is maintained.; Five new Caixin reports this period all confirm that WTI crude oil futures traded below $96 per barrel intraday on September 17, with one explicitly recording a break below the $95 threshold to a low of $94.973. This provides stronger direct price-action support for the 'hit or fell below $95' outcome. However, all reports only document intraday price levels and do not address the 1-minute candlestick extreme record, which is the core criterion for determining whether this outcome has been met. On the baseline likelihood side, the 'hit or fell below $100' outcome remains fully priced at 99.95%, while the 'hit or fell below $95' outcome's baseline likelihood rose from 36.40% to 40.00%. Given that the new evidence reinforces the fact that the $95 level was breached but fails to resolve the critical uncertainty around the 1-minute candlestick extreme, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
17. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Direct evidence of an intraday break below $95 is further confirmed, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unverified; the previous judgment is maintained.; The sole new report in this period reaffirms that WTI crude oil futures broke below $95 per barrel in intraday trading on September 17, hitting a low of $94.973, providing stronger direct price-action evidence for the 'hit $95' outcome. However, like all prior evidence, this report only records intraday price levels and does not address the core criterion required to settle the outcome: a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. On the baseline likelihood front, the 'hit $95' outcome's baseline rose sharply from 40.00% to 57.20%, indicating the market is increasingly pricing in the fact that the $95 threshold was breached, though the key uncertainty remains unresolved. As the new evidence reinforces existing facts without providing decisive information, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
18. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Direct evidence of an intraday break below $95 continues to accumulate, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unverified; the previous judgment is maintained.; The five new reports in this period are all intraday price updates from September 17, one of which explicitly records WTI crude oil futures breaking below $95 per barrel to a low of $94.973, further solidifying the price-action fact of 'hitting or breaking $95.' However, like all prior evidence, these reports only capture intraday price levels and fail to address the core criterion required for resolution: a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. The baseline likelihood for the 'hit or break $95' outcome rose from 57.20% to 61.10%, reflecting increased current likelihood of the $95 breach, but the key uncertainty remains unresolved. As the new evidence reinforces existing facts without providing decisive information, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
19. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Direct evidence of an intraday break below $95 is further consolidated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unverified; the previous judgment is maintained.; All five new reports in this period are intraday price updates from September 17, one of which explicitly records WTI crude oil futures breaking below $95 per barrel to a low of $94.973, further consolidating the factual basis for a 'hit or broke below $95' event. However, all reports provide only intraday price levels and do not address the core criterion required for resolution: a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. On the baseline likelihood front, the 'hit or broke below $95' outcome rose sharply from 61.10% to 82.10%, reflecting significantly stronger current likelihood of the $95 breach as a fact, though the key uncertainty remains unresolved. As the new evidence reinforces existing facts without providing decisive information, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
20. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Direct evidence of an intraday break below $95 is further consolidated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unverified; the previous judgment is maintained.; The sole new report in this period reaffirms that WTI crude oil futures broke below $95 per barrel intraday on September 17, hitting a low of $94.973, further consolidating the factual basis for a breach of the $95 threshold. However, the report only provides an intraday price level and does not address the core criterion required for resolution: a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. The baseline likelihood for the $95 outcome edged up from 82.10% to 85.55%, reflecting continued current likelihood of the price breach, but the critical uncertainty remains unresolved. As the new evidence reinforces existing facts without providing decisive information, we maintain our judgment for both outcomes.
21. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Direct evidence of an intraday break below $95 is further consolidated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unverified; the previous judgment is maintained.; New reports in this period continue to confirm that WTI crude oil futures traded below $95 per barrel on September 18, with one flash update showing a price of $95.09, further consolidating the fact of a break below the $95 threshold. However, all new reports only provide intraday price levels and fail to address the core criterion required for resolution: a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. On the baseline likelihood front, the 'hit $95' outcome surged from 85.55% to 99.95%, reflecting near-total current likelihood of the $95 breach, but the key uncertainty remains unresolved. As the new evidence reinforces existing facts without providing decisive information, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
22. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Direct evidence of an intraday break below $95 continues to emerge, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unverified; the previous judgment is maintained.; New reports in this period further confirm that WTI crude oil futures broke below $100 per barrel and approached the $95 area during intraday trading on September 18. One flash headline showed prices touching $95.09, while another reported the November contract falling below $95, consolidating the factual basis for a 'hit or broke below $95' event. However, all new reports only provide intraday price levels and fail to address the core criterion required for resolution: a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. Baseline likelihoods for both outcomes remain at 99.95%, reflecting a market that has almost fully priced in the breach of key price thresholds, yet the critical uncertainty persists. As new evidence reinforces existing facts without providing decisive information, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
23. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Direct evidence of an intraday break below $95 continues to emerge, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unverified; the previous judgment is maintained.; New reports in this period further confirm that WTI crude oil futures broke below $100 per barrel and approached the $95 area during intraday trading on September 18. One flash headline showed a print of $95.09, while another reported the November contract falling below $95, reinforcing the factual occurrence of a move to or below $95. However, all new reports provided only intraday price levels and did not address the core criterion required for resolution: a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. Baseline likelihoods for both outcomes remain near 99.95%, reflecting a market that has almost fully priced in the breach of these key thresholds, yet the critical uncertainty persists. With new evidence reinforcing existing facts but providing no decisive information, we maintain the judgment on both outcomes.
24. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — The fact of an intraday price break below $95 is further consolidated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains unverified; the previous judgment is maintained.; New reports in this period continue to confirm that WTI crude oil futures prices plunged intraday on September 18, breaking below $95 per barrel. One flash update reported the November contract losing the $95 level, while another showed the October contract falling to $95.09, further solidifying the price action of 'reaching or breaking below $95.' However, all new reports only provided intraday price levels and failed to address the core criterion required for resolution: the 1-minute candlestick extreme record. Baseline likelihoods for both outcomes remain near 100%, reflecting a market that has almost fully priced in the key price levels being hit, but the critical uncertainty persists. As the new evidence reinforces existing facts without providing decisive information, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.
25. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — The intraday price break below $95 is now fully substantiated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains absent; the previous judgment is maintained.; New reports this period further consolidate the fact that WTI crude oil futures experienced a sharp intraday decline and broke below $95 per barrel on September 18. One flash update explicitly showed the November contract losing the $95 level, while another reported the October contract falling to $95.09, providing stronger evidence for the price action of 'reaching or breaking below $95.' However, all new reports only provided intraday price levels and failed to address the core criterion required for resolution: a 1-minute candlestick extreme record. On the baseline likelihood front, both outcomes remain at 100%, reflecting that the market has fully priced in the key price levels being touched, though the critical uncertainty remains unresolved. Given that new evidence reinforces existing facts without providing decisive information, we maintain our judgment on both outcomes.