Question tracking
We track how the world’s answer to a big open question shifts over time — the current consensus likelihood, and the reasoning behind each move.
Question trackingTracking
Current likelihood rises from 6.5% to 7.5%, as U.S.-Iran military conflict persists without directly threatening the regime's core, leading to a slight upward revision in the collapse risk assessment.
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Current likelihood holds steady at 15.5%. The U.S. and Iran are already engaged in an air war, but there is no sign of escalation toward a full-scale ground invasion.
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Current likelihood holds at 7.5% with only a football transfer story this period, irrelevant to the accord's prospects, extending the low-level stagnation.
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No new key developments this period; the current likelihood edged up to 77.5%, leaving the overall assessment unchanged.
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Democratic win likelihood edges up to 81.5%, with no new events this period and the race remaining quiet.
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Current likelihood at 24%, a marginal 0.5pp uptick from the prior period; the SCO summit's China-India-Russia dynamics did not alter the underlying conflict logic, but signals of a strengthened China-Russia axis introduced a slight upward tilt.
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Current likelihood around 35.5%, no new events, reading edged up slightly
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Current likelihood plunged to 44.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting losing all advantage and shifting to a clear disadvantage amid a continued information vacuum.
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Current likelihood drops to zero, the deadline has passed with no fee-charging event, and the factual basis for the question has completely evaporated.
No
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Current likelihood drops to zero as the deadline passes without a US announcement to end the Iranian blockade, rendering the event impossible.
No
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The August window has closed with Bitcoin failing to reach $82,500; the event is definitively resolved as not occurring.
No
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The current likelihood has dropped to zero, with Djokovic's prospects of playing in and winning the tournament now completely closed off.
No
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August has ended with Ethereum not dipping to $2,400, confirming a 'No' outcome, and the current likelihood remains at 100%.
Yes
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Current likelihood has fallen to zero, with the ceasefire judged to have completely collapsed.
No
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Current likelihood hit 100%, yet the news vacuum remains absolute and only about 7 days remain.
Yes
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The deadline has passed, current likelihood drops to zero, with no US announcement to end the Iranian blockade.
No
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Current likelihood falls to zero with no new events, the judgment that the negotiation window is completely shut remains unchanged.
No
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Current likelihood remains at 100%, with the target being reached treated as a certainty.
Yes
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Current likelihood hit 100%, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.
Yes
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Current likelihood remains at 0%, with no new events in this period and the political preconditions for ending the blockade still absent.
No
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Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal.
No
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Current likelihood dropped to zero, with no relevant events occurring in the window.
No
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There is currently no meaningful information to assess the likelihood of the film breaking the record.
Yes
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The event window closed on July 31, 2026, with current likelihood at zero and no US announcement ending the Iranian blockade.
No
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current likelihood hits 100% as the judgment window closes, confirming NVIDIA as the world's largest company by likelihood cap.
Yes
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current likelihood has risen to 100% that the US will announce a halt to offensive operations, unaffected by recent military escalations.
Yes
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current likelihood has fully priced in the Fed holding rates steady at the July meeting, with the probability hitting 100%, and no new events this period challenged that certainty.
Yes
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current likelihood fell a further 0.1 pp to 0.0%, with the probability of a rate hike now completely zero.
No
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current likelihood hit 100%, meeting has occurred; confirmed by events this period.
Yes
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current likelihood for "Yes" dropped from 0.05% to 0%, with the possibility now completely zero.
No
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current likelihood has risen to 100%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July now seen as a complete certainty.
Yes
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current likelihood shows Spain (100%) has won the championship, with Argentina (0%) defeated, settling the title race.
Spain