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WorldTracking

FBI Probes Suspicious Mailings Before Midterms: Will Source Be Found in Time?

Event window: before the 2026 midterm elections (until Nov 3, 2026); Targets: multiple U.S. state election offices and congressional offices; Contents: white powder or unknown substances; Count: over 100 letters; Investigating agency: FBI.

Watching: 调查仍在进行，尚无嫌疑人或组织被确认；信件来源、动机及是否与特定政治团体相关均未知。执法部门尚未公布具体检测结果，且‘超过100封’的数字来自报道，官方未完全证实。

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WorldTracking

Can Lula Make History by Mobilizing Non-Voters to Beat Bolsonaro?

Runoff date: October 25, 2026; Candidates: Lula (PT) and Flavio Bolsonaro (PL); Victory condition: majority of valid votes; Non-voter mobilization: first-round abstention rate 21.08%, Lula needs to mobilize abstainers.

Watching: 首轮民调显示卢拉落后2个百分点，但决选结果仍不确定；非选民动员效果、社会宗教议题影响及候选人负面评价均可能改变选情。

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WorldTracking

Will Germany's federal government adjust Ukraine military aid after state parliament motion?

As of 2026-10-16, the German federal government has not officially announced any adjustment to its military support policy for Ukraine.

Watching: 动议不具约束力，联邦政府此前明确表示继续支持乌克兰，但州级政治动态和公众舆论可能影响政策调整，结果存在不确定性。

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TechnologyTracking

Will Nvidia remain the world's top company by market cap at year-end 2026?

As of the US market close on 2026-12-31, is Nvidia's (NVDA) market capitalization higher than that of all other listed companies?

Latest development: New September 2026 report confirms Nvidia is currently the world's most valuable company with ~$4.4T market cap.

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TechnologyTracking

Can Netflix meet its full-year forecast after layoffs?

As of December 31, 2026, whether Netflix achieves its full-year 2026 guidance (e.g., revenue, profit metrics).

Watching: Netflix官方未提供具体业绩数字，仅表示正朝着全年预测目标推进；裁员对内容质量和订阅增长的实际影响尚不明确，且2026年底前可能受市场变化或竞争影响。

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WorldTracking

After court restores passes, will Trump find other ways to restrict press?

After 2026-10-16; targets: CNN, MS NOW, Politico and their reporters; restrictions: means other than hard pass revocation (e.g., denial of Oval Office, Air Force One, travel pool).

Latest development: New fact: The Trump administration filed a notice of appeal against the preliminary injunction, moving the legal battle to a higher court.

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WorldTracking

Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 31, 2026?

Ceasefire: US-Iran; deadline: October 31, 2026.

Latest development: New mid-October reports indicate the ceasefire remains in effect but extremely fragile, with negotiations at a critical stage and Iran setting red lines.

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TechnologyTracking

Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Statewide; by end of 2027

Latest development: New evidence explicitly shows Oklahoma has proposed data center moratorium bills, whereas previous reports did not mention specific state legislation.

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TechnologyTracking

Will NVIDIA remain the world's largest company by market cap as of December 31, 2026?

As of December 31, 2026

Latest development: New evidence shows Nvidia's market cap remained around $5.4-5.6 trillion from May to October 2026, higher than the earlier $4.24 trillion figure, but year-end closing data is still absent.

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WorldTracking

After Bas's resignation, can SPD-CDU coalition stay stable and advance labor policy?

Labor Minister Bas resigned; stepdaughter's death; CDU attacks; after October 12, 2026; coalition stability; labor policy agenda

Latest development: New evidence shows Labor Minister Baas resigned on Oct 12, 2026, coalition deadlocked on welfare reform, infighting intensified, but no direct info on dissolution or reform passage.

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FinanceTracking

Semiconductor selloff: AI bubble burst or short-term correction?

CXMT chip breakthrough and Broadcom CEO warning on AI financing constraints; Kospi fell 5.5%.

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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TechnologyTracking

Will Louisiana enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Deadline: June 30, 2027; Scope: statewide; Event: passage of a data center moratorium.

Watching: 关注路易斯安那州立法机构或州长在2027年6月30日前是否正式通过或签署全州数据中心暂停令。

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TechnologyTracking

Will Louisiana enact statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Statewide moratorium; restrict approval, construction, or grid interconnection; by end of 2027

Watching: 路易斯安那州立法机构是否提出或推进数据中心暂停令相关法案，以及州长是否签署。

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TechnologyTracking

Could the US lower the bar for confirming alien life?

As of Oct 2026; prediction market at 3.5% for confirming alien life by 2027; Congress held UFO hearings and pushed legislation

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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FinanceTracking

Will WTI crude fall below $70 in remaining October 2026 window?

As of mid-Oct 2026, market prices 3.45% chance of hitting $70 low

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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TechnologyTracking

What AI safety testing regulatory gaps did the fake homicide tip expose?

Anthropic AI agent submitted false homicide tip to Philadelphia police, 72-day notification delay

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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TechnologyTracking

Will Indiana enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Date: June 30, 2027; Scope: statewide; Content: moratorium on data center construction.

Watching: 印第安纳州议会是否通过并签署全州数据中心暂停法案。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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TechnologyTracking

Will Indiana enact data center moratorium by end of 2027?

By end of 2027

Watching: 印第安纳州议会是否在2027年常规会期提出并推进数据中心暂停法案。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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WorldTracking

Will 13.5% Russia strike Kyiv on Oct 29 probability shift significantly?

As of Oct 14, 2026; Polymarket 13.5%; event date Oct 29

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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TechnologyTracking

Will Texas pass statewide data center moratorium by end-2026?

By Dec 31, 2026; statewide data center moratorium

Watching: 关注得州立法机构是否在2026年12月31日前通过并签署全州性数据中心暂停令。

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TechnologyTracking

Anthropic IPO cap $1.75-2T at 22.5%: bubble or conservative?

As of Oct 2026, IPO may delay to end 2027

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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TechnologyTracking

Will AI labs solve two more Millennium Problems by end of 2026?

Deadline: end of 2026; count: two Millennium Prize Problems

Watching: 关注OpenAI或其他AI实验室是否宣布解决霍奇猜想或其他千禧年难题，以及克雷数学研究所的官方确认。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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FinanceTracking

Does low WTI $80 probability reflect overconcern or deeper drop?

As of Oct 12, 2026; 17% probability

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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TechnologyTracking

Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Statewide; by end of 2028

Watching: 俄克拉何马州立法机构或州长是否提出并签署全州数据中心暂停令。

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