Question trackingTracking
霍尔木兹海峡什么时候彻底开放？
- 2027年12月31日前未彻底开放
- 2026年10月8日至2026年12月31日期间彻底开放
- 2027年1月1日至2027年3月31日期间彻底开放
- 2027年4月1日至2027年6月30日期间彻底开放
Initial model estimate; not resolved.
Question tracking
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Questions in motion
WorldTracking
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
28.5%
Putin and Lavrov reiterated denials of military intent toward Europe, but battlefield clashes and diplomatic deadlock persist, leaving conflict risk unchanged.
FinanceTracking
Will the Clarity Act become U.S. law in 2026?
5.9%
The bill's 'dead' status is maintained as regulators press ahead with 'Plan B'; there is no sign of the legislative path reopening this year.
FinanceTracking
During the observation periods defined by the rules, will the Fed lower the upper bound of its federal funds target range by the October 2026 meeting and by the December 2026 meeting?
- Rate ceiling cut by Dec. meeting
- Rate ceiling cut by Oct. meeting
News evidence continues to point toward rate hikes or unchanged rates; the likelihood of a rate ceiling cut remains zero.
FinanceTracking
How many 25-basis-point rate cuts will the Fed make in 2026, including emergency cuts and the December meeting?
- Zero rate cuts
- Two rate cuts
- Three rate cuts
- Five rate cuts
Expectation of zero rate cuts remains extremely solid, with the hiking cycle narrative continuing and no signals of rate cuts emerging.
FinanceTracking
Which will complete its IPO first before December 31, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. ET: Anthropic or OpenAI?
Anthropic's IPO timeline remains in the November window, but the possibility of a delay until after the midterm elections is cited by more sources, increasing uncertainty.
FinanceTracking
Will WTI crude oil break above $105 or fall below $95 in September?
- Touch $90
- Hit $130
- Break above $105Closed
- Fall below $95Closed
Oil prices are seesawing around the $90 mark, with no new price flashes altering the settled 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes.
TechnologyTracking
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
0.4%
OpenAI's strongest model training is suspended due to a security incident, directly weakening its ability to compete for the best model, while competitors are rapidly rising in specific domains.
FinanceTracking
Will Anthropic complete its IPO before December 31, 2026?
77.5%
IPO preparations advance, November window holds firm, but no definitive date breakthrough
FinanceTracking
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
74%
Strong demand signals from Nvidia's clients persist, but without a direct market-cap comparison against Apple, the baseline likelihood remains unchanged at 74%.
FinanceTracking
Will Anthropic complete its IPO and begin public trading in 2026, and when will it do so?
- IPO by Dec 31, 2026
- IPO by Oct 31, 2026
- IPO by Sep 30, 2026
The November IPO window is further solidified, making an October debut highly unlikely and ruling out September entirely.
WorldTracking
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5%
Diplomatic engagement and military standoff proceed in parallel, with no direct impact on the Iranian regime's internal stability; baseline likelihood unchanged.
WorldTracking
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Diplomatic maneuvering and military pressure continue in parallel, with no sign of a ground invasion; the previous judgment stands.
WorldTracking
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
83.5%
Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with new event unrelated to the race.
TechnologyTracking
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
98.8%
Anthropic co-founder to attend White House AI event, but no model capability news; the 'Yes' judgment is maintained.
FinanceTracking
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 meeting?
94.6%
New evidence is unrelated to monetary policy; rate hike expectation unchanged
WorldTracking
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
7.5%
Regional security cooperation intensifies, but diplomatic normalization remains without direct progress.
TechnologyTracking
Which company will rank first on the Chatbot Arena text model leaderboard at the end of 2026?
71.5%
Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 remains on top, but its lead is razor-thin and internal competition is intense.
TechnologyTracking
Which model will rank first on the arena.ai text arena Overall leaderboard at the specified checkpoint of September 21, 2026 at noon ET?
- claude-fable-5.1-max takes first
- claude-opus-5-max takes first
- Other model takes first
- claude-opus-5-high takes first
Claude Fable 5 remains firmly in first place, while claude-fable-5.1-max sits in fifth with a significant gap, making a comeback highly unlikely.
TechnologyTracking
Will the iPhone 18 officially go on sale in 2026?
99.8%
Apple has officially announced the iPhone 18 series, confirming a 2026 release. Judgment maintained.
Resolved questions
FinanceResolved
During the observation period defined by the rules for the week of September 14, 2026, will the active-month WTI crude oil futures contract record one-minute candlestick extremes at or below $100 and $95?
The intraday price break below $95 is now fully substantiated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains absent; the previous judgment is maintained.
Hit or broke below $100
FinanceResolved
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its September 2026 FOMC meeting?
The 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is a settled fact, with market attention shifting to the subsequent rate path for the rest of the year.
Rate hike by October meeting
FinanceResolved
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Expectations for no rate change have hit absolute zero. The information vacuum and baseline likelihood bottoming out together confirm this scenario has been completely priced out.
No
WorldResolved
Will Oman and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement on managing shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as defined by the rules, before September 14, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET?
The deadline has passed with no agreement announced; the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to freedom of navigation, but this does not alter the fact that the agreement failed to materialize.
No
FinanceResolved
Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reach or exceed 5.0% before 2027?
Triggered and maintained: All 11 reports in this period continue to confirm the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breached 5.0% during September 15 trading, with the baseline likelihood rising to 100%.
Yes
TechnologyResolved
Will OpenAI's Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?
GPT-6 Astra's Arena Leaderboard debut has still not occurred, with the market reference price dropping to zero and no new developments.
No
TechnologyResolved
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?
Astra has been officially released, and the current likelihood has risen to certainty.
Yes
WorldResolved
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Current likelihood drops to zero, the deadline has passed with no fee-charging event, and the factual basis for the question has completely evaporated.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Current likelihood drops to zero as the deadline passes without a US announcement to end the Iranian blockade, rendering the event impossible.
No
FinanceResolved
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
The August window has closed with Bitcoin failing to reach $82,500; the event is definitively resolved as not occurring.
No
Question trackingResolved
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?
The current likelihood has dropped to zero, with Djokovic's prospects of playing in and winning the tournament now completely closed off.
No
FinanceResolved
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?
August has ended with Ethereum not dipping to $2,400, confirming a 'No' outcome, and the current likelihood remains at 100%.
Yes
WorldResolved
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
Current likelihood has fallen to zero, with the ceasefire judged to have completely collapsed.
No
FinanceResolved
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?
Current likelihood hit 100%, yet the news vacuum remains absolute and only about 7 days remain.
Yes
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
The deadline has passed, current likelihood drops to zero, with no US announcement to end the Iranian blockade.
No
WorldResolved
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Current likelihood falls to zero with no new events, the judgment that the negotiation window is completely shut remains unchanged.
No
FinanceResolved
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?
Current likelihood remains at 100%, with the target being reached treated as a certainty.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Current likelihood hit 100%, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.
Yes
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Current likelihood remains at 0%, with no new events in this period and the political preconditions for ending the blockade still absent.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?
Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
Current likelihood dropped to zero, with no relevant events occurring in the window.
No
Question trackingResolved
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
There is currently no meaningful information to assess the likelihood of the film breaking the record.
Yes
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
The event window closed on July 31, 2026, with current likelihood at zero and no US announcement ending the Iranian blockade.
No
FinanceResolved
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
current likelihood hits 100% as the judgment window closes, confirming NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap.
Yes
WorldResolved
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
current likelihood has risen to 100% that the US will announce a halt to offensive operations, unaffected by recent military escalations.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its July 2026 meeting?
current likelihood has fully priced in the Fed holding rates steady at the July meeting, with the probability hitting 100%, and no new events this period challenged that certainty.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
current likelihood fell a further 0.1 pp to 0.0%, with the probability of a rate hike now completely zero.
No
WorldResolved
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
current likelihood hit 100%, meeting has occurred; confirmed by events this period.
Yes
Question trackingResolved
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
current likelihood for "Yes" dropped from 0.05% to 0%, with the possibility now completely zero.
No
FinanceResolved
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
current likelihood has risen to 100%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July now seen as a complete certainty.
Yes