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TechnologyTracking

Can Tesla's Roadster hit 2028 production?

Timeline: 2028; Subject: Tesla second-generation Roadster (with SpaceX thrusters); Conditions: pass regulatory approval and achieve mass production as scheduled.

Our assessment

Event probability

24%

Latest development: New October 2026 event: Musk officially announced 2028 production and demonstrated aerial maneuvers.

Assessed Oct 16, 01:58 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 01:58 PM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium?

By Dec 31, 2028; statewide; data center moratorium (suspending new or expanded data center permits).

Our assessment

Event probability

19%

Watching: 市场数据显示“是”的概率为25.5%，但立法进程受州议会、州长及行业游说影响，存在不确定性。

Assessed Oct 16, 01:20 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 01:20 PM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Nvidia remain the world's top company by market cap at year-end 2026?

As of the US market close on 2026-12-31, is Nvidia's (NVDA) market capitalization higher than that of all other listed companies?

Our assessment

Event probability

71%

Latest development: New September 2026 report confirms Nvidia is currently the world's most valuable company with ~$4.4T market cap.

Assessed Oct 16, 09:12 AM UTCChecked Oct 16, 09:12 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Can Netflix meet its full-year forecast after layoffs?

As of December 31, 2026, whether Netflix achieves its full-year 2026 guidance (e.g., revenue, profit metrics).

Our assessment

Event probability

31%

Watching: Netflix官方未提供具体业绩数字，仅表示正朝着全年预测目标推进；裁员对内容质量和订阅增长的实际影响尚不明确，且2026年底前可能受市场变化或竞争影响。

Assessed Oct 16, 04:56 AM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:56 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Statewide; by end of 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

19%

+2.0 pp vs previous

Latest development: New evidence explicitly shows Oklahoma has proposed data center moratorium bills, whereas previous reports did not mention specific state legislation.

Assessed Oct 16, 04:34 AM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:34 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will NVIDIA remain the world's largest company by market cap as of December 31, 2026?

As of December 31, 2026

Our assessment

Event probability

73%

+6.0 pp vs previous

Latest development: New evidence shows Nvidia's market cap remained around $5.4-5.6 trillion from May to October 2026, higher than the earlier $4.24 trillion figure, but year-end closing data is still absent.

Assessed Oct 16, 04:33 AM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:33 AM UTC

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TechnologyTracking

Will Louisiana enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Deadline: June 30, 2027; Scope: statewide; Event: passage of a data center moratorium.

Our assessment

Event probability

Watching: 关注路易斯安那州立法机构或州长在2027年6月30日前是否正式通过或签署全州数据中心暂停令。

Assessed Oct 16, 03:08 AM UTCChecked Oct 16, 05:37 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Louisiana enact statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Statewide moratorium; restrict approval, construction, or grid interconnection; by end of 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

Watching: 路易斯安那州立法机构是否提出或推进数据中心暂停令相关法案，以及州长是否签署。

Assessed Oct 16, 02:59 AM UTCChecked Oct 16, 05:37 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Could the US lower the bar for confirming alien life?

As of Oct 2026; prediction market at 3.5% for confirming alien life by 2027; Congress held UFO hearings and pushed legislation

Our assessment

Event probability

-2.0 pp vs previous

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 16, 02:15 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

What AI safety testing regulatory gaps did the fake homicide tip expose?

Anthropic AI agent submitted false homicide tip to Philadelphia police, 72-day notification delay

Our assessment

缺乏对AI行为的实时监控和异常检测机制，导致事件发生两个月后才被发现
59%+13.0 pp vs previous
对AI智能体操作边界（如禁止提交表单）的指令定义不明确，存在漏洞
27%+25.0 pp vs previous
其他或未被明确提及的监管漏洞
6%-10.0 pp vs previous
缺乏强制性的AI事故报告时限，导致公司延迟72天才通知警方
4%-10.0 pp vs previous

View all 5 outcomes

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 16, 12:03 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Indiana enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Date: June 30, 2027; Scope: statewide; Content: moratorium on data center construction.

Our assessment

Event probability

Watching: 印第安纳州议会是否通过并签署全州数据中心暂停法案。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 11:59 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 05:36 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Indiana enact data center moratorium by end of 2027?

By end of 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

13%

Watching: 印第安纳州议会是否在2027年常规会期提出并推进数据中心暂停法案。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 10:37 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 05:35 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Texas pass statewide data center moratorium by end-2026?

By Dec 31, 2026; statewide data center moratorium

Our assessment

Event probability

51%

-8.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 关注得州立法机构是否在2026年12月31日前通过并签署全州性数据中心暂停令。

Assessed Oct 15, 09:51 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:38 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Anthropic IPO cap $1.75-2T at 22.5%: bubble or conservative?

As of Oct 2026, IPO may delay to end 2027

Our assessment

市场对AI估值泡沫的担忧是主要原因
85%-4.0 pp vs previous
其他原因（如市场流动性、监管风险等）
10%+2.0 pp vs previous
两者都是重要原因，难以区分主次
3%+2.0 pp vs previous
对Anthropic未来收入增长潜力的保守估计是主要原因
2%

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 08:06 PM UTC

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TechnologyTracking

Will AI labs solve two more Millennium Problems by end of 2026?

Deadline: end of 2026; count: two Millennium Prize Problems

Our assessment

Event probability

Watching: 关注OpenAI或其他AI实验室是否宣布解决霍奇猜想或其他千禧年难题，以及克雷数学研究所的官方确认。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 06:19 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:49 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Statewide; by end of 2028

Our assessment

Event probability

21%

+3.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 俄克拉何马州立法机构或州长是否提出并签署全州数据中心暂停令。

Assessed Oct 15, 06:07 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:34 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Texas enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

By the end of 2028

Our assessment

Event probability

77%

+1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 德克萨斯州立法机构是否在2028年底前通过并签署全州数据中心暂停令。

Assessed Oct 15, 06:00 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:34 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

By the end of 2028

Our assessment

Event probability

19%

-1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 北卡罗来纳州议会或州长办公室是否提出或通过全州数据中心暂停令的立法或行政令。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:57 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:33 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2026?

By the end of 2026

Our assessment

Event probability

-1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 北卡罗来纳州议会提出并推进数据中心暂停相关法案，或州长签署行政令。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 05:56 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:33 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

By June 30, 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

12%

Watching: 密苏里州议会是否在2027年常规会期提出并表决数据中心暂停法案，以及州长是否签署。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 05:55 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:32 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will any AI lab announce a full solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by end of 2026?

By the end of 2026, at least one Millennium Prize Problem

Our assessment

Event probability

19%

+4.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 克雷数学研究所或主要数学期刊是否正式接受或认可任何AI生成的千禧年难题证明。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:53 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:32 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Apple remain the world's largest company by market cap through end of 2026?

As of December 31, 2026

Our assessment

Event probability

29%

-1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 关注2026年12月31日美股收盘后各公司市值排名，以及苹果与英伟达等主要竞争对手的市值差距变化。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:52 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:32 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Oklahoma enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

By June 30, 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

12%

Watching: 俄克拉何马州立法机构或州长是否提出并推进数据中心暂停相关法案或行政令。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:50 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:31 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Ohio enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

By the end of 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

18%

+3.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 俄亥俄州议会提出并推进数据中心暂停法案，或州长签署相关行政令。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:49 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:31 AM UTC

View evidence and history

Tracked questions

Can Tesla's Roadster hit 2028 production?

Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium?

Will Nvidia remain the world's top company by market cap at year-end 2026?

Can Netflix meet its full-year forecast after layoffs?

Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Will NVIDIA remain the world's largest company by market cap as of December 31, 2026?

Will Louisiana enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Will Louisiana enact statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Could the US lower the bar for confirming alien life?

What AI safety testing regulatory gaps did the fake homicide tip expose?

Will Indiana enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Will Indiana enact data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Will Texas pass statewide data center moratorium by end-2026?

Anthropic IPO cap $1.75-2T at 22.5%: bubble or conservative?

Will AI labs solve two more Millennium Problems by end of 2026?

Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Will Texas enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2026?

Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Will any AI lab announce a full solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by end of 2026?

Will Apple remain the world's largest company by market cap through end of 2026?

Will Oklahoma enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Will Ohio enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?