Question tracking
Get a current estimate, save it, and see how it changes with new information.
TechnologyTracking
OpenAI's strongest model training is suspended due to a security incident, directly weakening its ability to compete for the best model, while competitors are rapidly rising in specific domains.
TechnologyTracking
Anthropic co-founder to attend White House AI event, but no model capability news; the 'Yes' judgment is maintained.
TechnologyTracking
Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 remains on top, but its lead is razor-thin and internal competition is intense.
TechnologyTracking
Claude Fable 5 remains firmly in first place, while claude-fable-5.1-max sits in fifth with a significant gap, making a comeback highly unlikely.
TechnologyTracking
Apple has officially announced the iPhone 18 series, confirming a 2026 release. Judgment maintained.
TechnologyResolved
GPT-6 Astra's Arena Leaderboard debut has still not occurred, with the market reference price dropping to zero and no new developments.
No
TechnologyResolved
Astra has been officially released, and the current likelihood has risen to certainty.
Yes