Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of North Carolina enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflect
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 84%.; The available evidence focuses on Maine and South Carolina, with no direct mention of North Carolina's legislative progress. Maine's legislature passed a moratorium pending the governor's signature, and a South Carolina lawmaker proposed a one-year pause, but neither constitutes action by North Carolina. Thus, these reports cannot establish that North Carolina will enact a statewide data center moratorium by the end of 2027, nor can they rule it out. The key uncertainty is whether North Carolina will pursue such legislation.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 83%.; The supplied evidence does not directly mention a data center moratorium in North Carolina. Maine's legislature passed a large data center construction ban, pausing new projects until November 2027, but that bill awaits the governor's signature and Maine is not North Carolina. South Carolina Republican Representative Nancy Mace proposed a one-year moratorium on new data centers in her state, but South Carolina is also not North Carolina. Additionally, one report notes 11 states are considering similar restrictions, but it does not specify whether North Carolina is among them. Thus, these reports cannot establish whether North Carolina will enact a statewide data center moratorium by the end of 2027.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 84%.; The available evidence concerns only Maine's passage of a data center moratorium and does not mention any legislative action in North Carolina. While Maine's action indicates that other states may consider similar measures, no specific information about North Carolina is provided. Therefore, these reports cannot establish whether North Carolina will enact a statewide data center moratorium by the end of 2027.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 86%.; The available evidence concerns Maine's passage of a data center moratorium and legislative efforts in other states such as Vermont and New York, but provides no specific information about North Carolina enacting a statewide moratorium. Therefore, these reports cannot confirm that North Carolina will pass such a law by the end of 2027, nor can they rule it out. The key uncertainty is whether North Carolina's legislature will act before the deadline, and the current evidence offers no signal on this.