Will any AI lab announce a full solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by end of 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announc
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 78%.; As of September 2026, OpenAI has officially announced that its AI system solved the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, releasing a 166-page paper and Lean formalization, but the proof is still pending independent review or recognition by the Clay Mathematics Institute. The reports do not mention peer review or official recognition status, nor do they confirm the Hodge conjecture rumor. Thus, current evidence shows an announced solution to one Millennium Prize problem, but it does not yet meet the resolution criterion of 'peer-reviewed or recognized by CMI.' The key uncertainty is whether the proof will receive formal recognition by the end of 2026.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 78%.; As of October 13, 2026, multiple reports state that OpenAI announced on September 9, 2026 that about 10,000 AI agents solved the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, one of the Millennium Prize Problems, in 88 hours. Other reports mention OpenAI releasing a model that solved 372 math problems, with some progress related to Millennium Prize problems, and academic controversy over how AI labs publish results. However, none of these reports specify whether the solution has passed peer review or received recognition from the Clay Mathematics Institute, which is a key condition for resolution. Thus, the evidence shows significant progress but does not confirm the problem has been formally 'solved'.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 85%.; As of October 14, 2026, evidence shows OpenAI announced on September 9, 2026 that its model solved the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem in 88 hours, but the Clay Mathematics Institute still lists it as unsolved, and its prize rules require publication in a qualified venue for at least two years with general acceptance. Later reports (October 8, 2026) mention OpenAI releasing an unnamed model solving 372 math problems, some related to Millennium Prize progress, but without explicit formal recognition. Thus, the evidence indicates a candidate solution exists but has not yet met peer review or CMI recognition, leaving uncertainty about formal resolution by end-2026.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 81%.; As of October 15, 2026, multiple reports state that OpenAI announced in September 2026 that its AI system solved the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, involving about 10,000 concurrent agents, 88 hours of computation, and a GitHub repository with reasoning summaries. However, none of these reports indicate that the solution has passed peer review or received formal recognition from the Clay Mathematics Institute; one report explicitly notes that the claim awaits further review and is disputed. Thus, the evidence establishes an 'announced solution' but not the 'formal recognition' required by the resolution criteria.