Will Oklahoma enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Oklahoma enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 89%.; The supplied evidence concerns only Maine's data center moratorium bill and provides no information about Oklahoma legislative or executive actions. Maine's passage shows that a statewide moratorium is politically feasible, but it does not directly indicate that Oklahoma will follow suit. As of the report dates, there is no evidence that Oklahoma has introduced or passed such a moratorium, nor do the reports clarify Oklahoma's specific grid pressure or environmental disputes. Therefore, these reports cannot establish that Oklahoma will enact a statewide moratorium by June 30, 2027; the key uncertainty is whether relevant legislative developments will emerge in Oklahoma.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 88%.; As of October 2026, Oklahoma has enacted a law (HB 2992) protecting residential customers from electricity cost impacts of large data centers, but this is not a moratorium. Maine passed a bill to pause large data center approvals, but it was vetoed by the governor and did not become law. The supplied reports do not show that Oklahoma has enacted or is considering a statewide data center moratorium, nor do they mention grid stress or environmental concerns as reasons for such a measure. Therefore, these reports cannot establish that Oklahoma will pass such a moratorium by June 30, 2027.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 88%.; The evidence shows Oklahoma enacted a law (HB 2992) protecting residential customers from electricity costs of large data centers, but this is not a moratorium. Maine passed a similar moratorium bill but it was vetoed, indicating state-level moratoriums are possible but not yet realized in Oklahoma. As of the report dates, there is no evidence that Oklahoma has enacted a statewide data center moratorium, nor any mention of grid stress or environmental concerns as reasons. Thus, these reports do not establish that such a moratorium will pass by June 30, 2027.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 88%.; The supplied evidence shows that Oklahoma enacted the Data Center Consumer Electricity Protection Act (HB 2992), signed by the governor on May 11, 2026, which aims to shield residential customers from electricity cost impacts of large data centers, but it does not mention a statewide moratorium on new data centers. Maine's legislature passed a moratorium bill that was vetoed by the governor, indicating a precedent for state-level moratoriums but not directly relevant to Oklahoma. As of the report dates, no evidence indicates that Oklahoma has passed or is considering a statewide moratorium explicitly citing grid strain or environmental concerns; the reports do not provide specific indications that such a measure will be enacted by June 30, 2027.