Will NVIDIA remain the world's largest company by market cap as of December 31, 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 77%.; As of October 12, 2026, available reports show Nvidia repeatedly became the world's most valuable company during 2026: its market cap exceeded $6 trillion in February, surpassed $5.5 trillion in May, regained the top spot on July 31 with $4.86 trillion, and surged by $442 billion in a single day after late-August earnings. PwC's July 2026 list (based on March 31 data) also confirmed Nvidia as the world's largest by market cap at $4.237 trillion. However, none of these reports provide market cap figures for December 31, 2026, so they cannot directly confirm Nvidia remains the most valuable company at the deadline. The key uncertainty is whether rivals like Apple or Microsoft will overtake it by year-end.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 57%.; As of March 31, 2026, Nvidia's market cap was $4.237 trillion, surpassing Apple ($3.726 trillion) to become the world's most valuable company in a PwC ranking; a February 2026 report claimed its market cap exceeded $5 trillion and that it was the first to break $6 trillion, but this conflicts with the PwC data. On July 18, 2026, Apple briefly overtook Nvidia, indicating competition for the top spot. These reports show Nvidia led for much of 2026, but no data for December 31, 2026 is provided, so it cannot be confirmed whether it will remain the world's most valuable company at year-end.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 76%.; As of March 31, 2026, Nvidia's market cap was $4.237 trillion, surpassing Apple ($3.726 trillion) to become the world's most valuable listed company (per PwC's list published in July 2026). Another report claims Nvidia's market cap exceeded $5 trillion and that it became the first company to surpass $6 trillion in early 2026, but no specific date is given. These reports show Nvidia was leading by mid-2026, but the question concerns market cap at the close on December 31, 2026, which is not covered by the evidence, so it cannot be confirmed whether Nvidia will remain the top company at that time.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 67%.; As of March 31, 2026, Nvidia topped PwC's global market cap ranking with about $4.24 trillion, surpassing Apple. Another report mentions a market cap exceeding $5 trillion, but without a specific date. These reports show Nvidia was the world's most valuable company at some points in 2026, but they do not provide data for December 31, 2026, the date required by the question, so they cannot confirm whether Nvidia will retain the top spot then.
6. Oct 16, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with our estimated probability of 73%.; Evidence shows Nvidia's market cap was about $5.4 trillion in early June 2026, about $5.6 trillion on October 11, 2026, and a July 2026 PwC list ranked it first globally at $4.24 trillion. These indicate Nvidia led globally for much of 2026, but the question requires Dec 31 closing market cap, which is not provided, so year-end top ranking remains unconfirmed.