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FBI Probes Suspicious Mailings Before Midterms: Will Source Be Found in Time?

Event window: before the 2026 midterm elections (until Nov 3, 2026); Targets: multiple U.S. state election offices and congressional offices; Contents: white powder or unknown substances; Count: over 100 letters; Investigating agency: FBI.

Watching: 调查仍在进行，尚无嫌疑人或组织被确认；信件来源、动机及是否与特定政治团体相关均未知。执法部门尚未公布具体检测结果，且‘超过100封’的数字来自报道，官方未完全证实。

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Can Lula Make History by Mobilizing Non-Voters to Beat Bolsonaro?

Runoff date: October 25, 2026; Candidates: Lula (PT) and Flavio Bolsonaro (PL); Victory condition: majority of valid votes; Non-voter mobilization: first-round abstention rate 21.08%, Lula needs to mobilize abstainers.

Watching: 首轮民调显示卢拉落后2个百分点，但决选结果仍不确定；非选民动员效果、社会宗教议题影响及候选人负面评价均可能改变选情。

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Will Germany's federal government adjust Ukraine military aid after state parliament motion?

As of 2026-10-16, the German federal government has not officially announced any adjustment to its military support policy for Ukraine.

Watching: 动议不具约束力，联邦政府此前明确表示继续支持乌克兰，但州级政治动态和公众舆论可能影响政策调整，结果存在不确定性。

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Can Talarico overcome narrowed lead to beat Paxton?

Election date: November 3, 2026; Candidates: Democrat James Talarico, Republican Ken Paxton; Outcome based on official certified election results.

Watching: 民调显示塔拉里科领先但优势缩小，具体差距和选举日结果存在不确定性；特朗普的警告和辩论结果可能改变选情。

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Pentagon livestream of Hasan execution: deterrent or division?

Pentagon plan; livestream execution; Nidal Hasan; deterrent effect; social division and violence cycles

Latest development: An Oct 16 report confirms Trump halted the live-streaming part while the execution proceeds, updating the earlier plan.

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After court restores passes, will Trump find other ways to restrict press?

After 2026-10-16; targets: CNN, MS NOW, Politico and their reporters; restrictions: means other than hard pass revocation (e.g., denial of Oval Office, Air Force One, travel pool).

Latest development: New fact: The Trump administration filed a notice of appeal against the preliminary injunction, moving the legal battle to a higher court.

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Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 31, 2026?

Ceasefire: US-Iran; deadline: October 31, 2026.

Latest development: New mid-October reports indicate the ceasefire remains in effect but extremely fragile, with negotiations at a critical stage and Iran setting red lines.

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After Bas's resignation, can SPD-CDU coalition stay stable and advance labor policy?

Labor Minister Bas resigned; stepdaughter's death; CDU attacks; after October 12, 2026; coalition stability; labor policy agenda

Latest development: New evidence shows Labor Minister Baas resigned on Oct 12, 2026, coalition deadlocked on welfare reform, infighting intensified, but no direct info on dissolution or reform passage.

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Will 13.5% Russia strike Kyiv on Oct 29 probability shift significantly?

As of Oct 14, 2026; Polymarket 13.5%; event date Oct 29

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Likelihood of US ending Iran naval blockade by Oct 15?

By October 15, 2026, the US announces an end to its naval blockade of Iran.

Watching: 关注美国官方声明或美军中央司令部关于解除封锁的公告。

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Will US-Iran reach Hormuz traffic deal by Oct 23?

By October 23, 2026, US and Iran reach a formal agreement on Strait of Hormuz traffic.

Watching: 美伊官方关于海峡通行协议的正式声明或签署消息。

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Will Reform Party's 50% probability shift with polling or coalition changes?

Estonia March 2027 election, Reform Party at 50% to win most seats, potential shifts before vote

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Russia strike Kyiv Oct 21 at 17%: de-escalation?

As of October 13, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv on October 21.

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Russia strike Kyiv Oct 22 at 16.5%: material shift?

As of October 13, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv on October 22.

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Will Vučić become Serbia's PM by June 30, 2028?

Serbian President Vučić, officially PM by June 30, 2028

Watching: 关注2026年10月25日议会选举结果及后续组阁进程，武契奇是否被正式提名为总理候选人并宣誓就职。

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Probability Russia strikes Kyiv on Oct 19?

October 19, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv.

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Russia strike Kyiv Oct 17 at 25%: understated?

As of October 13, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv on October 17, intercepted counts.

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Russia strike Kyiv Oct 16 at 21.5%: what risk?

October 16, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv.

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Thunberg 2027 Nobel Peace Prize at 4.5%: what factors explain?

As of October 2026; 2027 Nobel Peace Prize; Greta Thunberg; probability 4.5%

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Assange 2027 Nobel Peace Prize at 3.9%: is the market underestimating?

2027 Nobel Peace Prize; Julian Assange; current probability 3.9%

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WorldTracking

How would <170 Bab el-Mandeb transits affect supply chains and security?

Oct 19-25, fewer than 170 ships

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Will 230+ ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Oct 19-25?

Between Oct 19-25, 2026, will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?

Watching: 关注10月19-25日每日曼德海峡船舶通行量数据，特别是周度累计是否达到230艘。

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Flydubai co-pilot plot: will Middle East airlines tighten pilot vetting?

Flydubai co-pilot; alleged plot to crash into Ben Gurion Airport; pilot background checks; psychological screening; Middle Eastern airlines

Watching: 关注阿联酋民航总局（GCAA）、国际民航组织（ICAO）及中东主要航空公司是否发布新的飞行员审查或心理健康筛查政策。

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Does 17.5% invasion probability underestimate Mideast risk?

Market prices a 17.5% chance of US invasion of Iran before 2027.

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