WorldTracking
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
28.5%
Putin and Lavrov reiterated denials of military intent toward Europe, but battlefield clashes and diplomatic deadlock persist, leaving conflict risk unchanged.
Question tracking
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Questions in motion
WorldTracking
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5%
Diplomatic engagement and military standoff proceed in parallel, with no direct impact on the Iranian regime's internal stability; baseline likelihood unchanged.
WorldTracking
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Diplomatic maneuvering and military pressure continue in parallel, with no sign of a ground invasion; the previous judgment stands.
WorldTracking
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
83.5%
Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with new event unrelated to the race.
WorldTracking
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
7.5%
Regional security cooperation intensifies, but diplomatic normalization remains without direct progress.
Resolved questions
WorldResolved
Will Oman and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement on managing shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as defined by the rules, before September 14, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET?
The deadline has passed with no agreement announced; the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to freedom of navigation, but this does not alter the fact that the agreement failed to materialize.
No
WorldResolved
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Current likelihood drops to zero, the deadline has passed with no fee-charging event, and the factual basis for the question has completely evaporated.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Current likelihood drops to zero as the deadline passes without a US announcement to end the Iranian blockade, rendering the event impossible.
No
WorldResolved
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
Current likelihood has fallen to zero, with the ceasefire judged to have completely collapsed.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
The deadline has passed, current likelihood drops to zero, with no US announcement to end the Iranian blockade.
No
WorldResolved
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Current likelihood falls to zero with no new events, the judgment that the negotiation window is completely shut remains unchanged.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Current likelihood remains at 0%, with no new events in this period and the political preconditions for ending the blockade still absent.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?
Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
Current likelihood dropped to zero, with no relevant events occurring in the window.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
The event window closed on July 31, 2026, with current likelihood at zero and no US announcement ending the Iranian blockade.
No
WorldResolved
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
current likelihood has risen to 100% that the US will announce a halt to offensive operations, unaffected by recent military escalations.
Yes
WorldResolved
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
current likelihood hit 100%, meeting has occurred; confirmed by events this period.
Yes