After Bas's resignation, can SPD-CDU coalition stay stable and advance labor policy?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: Bärbel Bas resigned with immediate effect as Germany's labor minister and SPD co-leader on October 12, 2026, citing grief over her stepdaughter's death and continued public attacks, including from coalition partner CDU. SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil called the attacks indecent and proposed Alexander Schweitzer as her successor, announcing a party conference around the turn of the year to elect the entire SPD leadership. Chancellor Friedrich Merz accepted the resignation, said the coalition agreement remains intact, and backed Schweitzer for the ministry.
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 55%.; As of July 2026, Germany's governing coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD) under Chancellor Merz announced an economic reform package containing 34 measures covering taxes, pensions, and the labor market, with income tax reforms planned from January 2027, reducing taxes by about €10 billion annually. The package was announced by the coalition, but the evidence does not specify whether it has been passed as a major bill in the Bundestag, nor does it provide information on the coalition's stability after October 12, 2026. Thus, the evidence shows the coalition was active in July and advancing labor policy, but cannot confirm subsequent stability or legislative passage.
3. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 55%.; As of October 12, 2026, the available evidence shows that the governing coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD announced a reform package on July 2, 2026, containing 34 measures covering taxes, pensions, and the labor market, with income tax reforms planned from January 2027 and annual tax cuts of about 10 billion euros. These facts indicate progress on the labor policy agenda, but the evidence does not specify whether the package has been passed into law by the Bundestag, nor does it provide direct information on coalition stability after October 12, 2026. Therefore, the reports cannot confirm that the coalition will remain intact through December 31, 2026, or that a major labor policy law has been enacted.
4. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 54%.; As of October 12, 2026, the available evidence shows that Germany's ruling coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD) announced a reform package on July 2, 2026, containing 34 measures covering taxes, pensions, and the labor market, with income tax reforms planned from January 2027, reducing taxes by about 10 billion euros annually. These measures indicate progress on labor policy, but the evidence does not specify whether the package has been passed by the Bundestag, nor does it provide direct information on the coalition's stability after October 12, 2026. Therefore, this report cannot confirm whether the coalition will remain intact by the deadline or whether relevant legislation has been formally enacted.
5. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 50%.; As of October 13, 2026, the evidence shows that the German governing coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD) announced a 34-measure reform package on July 2, 2026, covering taxes, pensions, and the labor market, with income tax reforms planned for January 2027. This indicates progress on labor policy, but the evidence does not establish whether the coalition remained stable through December 31, 2026, nor whether the package was passed as a major bill in the Bundestag. Thus, the available evidence is insufficient to determine both conditions.
6. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 51%.; As of July 2026, Germany's ruling coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD) announced a 34-measure economic reform package covering taxes, pensions, and the labor market, with tax cuts planned for January 2027. This indicates progress on the labor policy agenda, but the evidence does not show that the package has been enacted into law by the Bundestag, nor does it address the coalition's stability after October 12, 2026. Thus, these reports alone cannot establish whether the coalition will remain intact through end-2026 or whether a major labor policy bill will pass by the deadline.
7. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 57%.; As of October 14, 2026, the available evidence shows that the governing coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD announced a 34-measure reform package called 'Boost for the Economy and Employment' on July 2, 2026, covering taxes, pensions, and the labor market, including a gradual increase of the retirement age to 70. This indicates concrete action on labor policy. However, the evidence does not mention whether the coalition has remained intact after October 12, 2026, nor whether the Bundestag has passed any major labor law. Thus, these reports alone cannot confirm coalition stability or legislative passage; the key uncertainty lies in future legislative outcomes and coalition endurance.
8. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 50%.; As of October 14, 2026, the available evidence shows that the German governing coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD) announced a 34-measure reform package on July 2, 2026, covering taxes, pensions, and labor market, with income tax reform planned for January 2027. These facts indicate progress on labor policy agenda, but the evidence does not clarify whether the package has been passed by the Bundestag, nor does it provide information on coalition stability or subsequent policy developments. Therefore, this report cannot confirm whether the coalition will remain stable by December 31, 2026, or whether a major labor law will be enacted.
9. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 51%.; As of October 15, 2026, the available evidence shows that the governing coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD announced a 34-measure economic reform package on July 2, 2026, covering taxes, pensions, labor market, and other areas, explicitly aimed at 'boosting the economy and employment.' This directly supports the condition that at least one major labor policy bill was passed by the Bundestag, as the package has been publicly announced and includes labor market measures. However, the evidence does not specify whether the package has been formally submitted to or passed by the Bundestag, nor does it indicate whether the coalition remains intact after October 12, 2026. Therefore, the reports alone cannot fully establish coalition stability or final legislative passage.
10. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 52%.; As of October 15, 2026, the available evidence shows that the governing coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD announced an economic reform package on July 2, 2026, containing 34 measures covering taxes, pensions, and the labor market, with some measures aimed at reducing burdens on low- and middle-income earners. These reports indicate concrete action on labor policy, but they do not provide direct information on the coalition's continued stability or subsequent legislative progress. Therefore, the current evidence is insufficient to confirm whether the coalition will remain stable through December 31, 2026, or whether a major labor policy bill will pass the Bundestag.
11. Oct 16, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with our estimated probability of 79%.; On Oct 12, 2026, SPD co-chair and Labor Minister Baas resigned citing personal grief and coalition disputes; the coalition is deadlocked on welfare reform, Merz's approval is low, and AfD support is rising. These facts pressure coalition stability, but evidence does not show dissolution or reform failure. Key uncertainty is whether the coalition can remain stable and pass major labor reforms after Oct 12, 2026.