Will Reform Party's 50% probability shift with polling or coalition changes?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: Parliamentary elections to elect the Riigikogu of Estonia are scheduled to take place on March 7, 2027. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Riigikogu as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Riigikogu will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party tha
2. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 63%.; The supplied evidence shows that the Reform Party won the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election with 31.5% of the vote, formed a coalition government in July 2024 with the Social Democrats and Eesti 200, and reorganized the government with Eesti 200 after the Social Democrats left in March 2025. An August 2025 report indicates Prime Minister Michal (Reform Party) has record-low approval ratings. These facts suggest recent coalition changes and declining prime ministerial support, but no specific polling trends or coalition adjustments ahead of the 2027 election are provided, so the evidence cannot establish whether the forecast probability will fluctuate significantly.