FinanceTracking
Will the Clarity Act become U.S. law in 2026?
5.9%
The bill's 'dead' status is maintained as regulators press ahead with 'Plan B'; there is no sign of the legislative path reopening this year.
Question tracking
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Questions in motion
FinanceTracking
During the observation periods defined by the rules, will the Fed lower the upper bound of its federal funds target range by the October 2026 meeting and by the December 2026 meeting?
- Rate ceiling cut by Dec. meeting
- Rate ceiling cut by Oct. meeting
News evidence continues to point toward rate hikes or unchanged rates; the likelihood of a rate ceiling cut remains zero.
FinanceTracking
How many 25-basis-point rate cuts will the Fed make in 2026, including emergency cuts and the December meeting?
- Zero rate cuts
- Two rate cuts
- Three rate cuts
- Five rate cuts
Expectation of zero rate cuts remains extremely solid, with the hiking cycle narrative continuing and no signals of rate cuts emerging.
FinanceTracking
Which will complete its IPO first before December 31, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. ET: Anthropic or OpenAI?
Anthropic's IPO timeline remains in the November window, but the possibility of a delay until after the midterm elections is cited by more sources, increasing uncertainty.
FinanceTracking
Will WTI crude oil break above $105 or fall below $95 in September?
- Touch $90
- Hit $130
- Break above $105Closed
- Fall below $95Closed
Oil prices are seesawing around the $90 mark, with no new price flashes altering the settled 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes.
FinanceTracking
Will Anthropic complete its IPO before December 31, 2026?
77.5%
IPO preparations advance, November window holds firm, but no definitive date breakthrough
FinanceTracking
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
74%
Strong demand signals from Nvidia's clients persist, but without a direct market-cap comparison against Apple, the baseline likelihood remains unchanged at 74%.
FinanceTracking
Will Anthropic complete its IPO and begin public trading in 2026, and when will it do so?
- IPO by Dec 31, 2026
- IPO by Oct 31, 2026
- IPO by Sep 30, 2026
The November IPO window is further solidified, making an October debut highly unlikely and ruling out September entirely.
FinanceTracking
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 meeting?
94.6%
New evidence is unrelated to monetary policy; rate hike expectation unchanged
Resolved questions
FinanceResolved
During the observation period defined by the rules for the week of September 14, 2026, will the active-month WTI crude oil futures contract record one-minute candlestick extremes at or below $100 and $95?
The intraday price break below $95 is now fully substantiated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains absent; the previous judgment is maintained.
Hit or broke below $100
FinanceResolved
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its September 2026 FOMC meeting?
The 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is a settled fact, with market attention shifting to the subsequent rate path for the rest of the year.
Rate hike by October meeting
FinanceResolved
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Expectations for no rate change have hit absolute zero. The information vacuum and baseline likelihood bottoming out together confirm this scenario has been completely priced out.
No
FinanceResolved
Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reach or exceed 5.0% before 2027?
Triggered and maintained: All 11 reports in this period continue to confirm the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breached 5.0% during September 15 trading, with the baseline likelihood rising to 100%.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
The August window has closed with Bitcoin failing to reach $82,500; the event is definitively resolved as not occurring.
No
FinanceResolved
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?
August has ended with Ethereum not dipping to $2,400, confirming a 'No' outcome, and the current likelihood remains at 100%.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?
Current likelihood hit 100%, yet the news vacuum remains absolute and only about 7 days remain.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?
Current likelihood remains at 100%, with the target being reached treated as a certainty.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Current likelihood hit 100%, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
current likelihood hits 100% as the judgment window closes, confirming NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its July 2026 meeting?
current likelihood has fully priced in the Fed holding rates steady at the July meeting, with the probability hitting 100%, and no new events this period challenged that certainty.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
current likelihood fell a further 0.1 pp to 0.0%, with the probability of a rate hike now completely zero.
No
FinanceResolved
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
current likelihood has risen to 100%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July now seen as a complete certainty.
Yes