FinanceTracking
NVIDIA largest company by market cap on Dec 31?
NVIDIA becomes world's largest company
70%
Observation: Baseline likelihood rose from 66.5% to 70%, extending last period's recovery
Question tracking
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Tracked questions
FinanceTracking
Fed 50bp hike probability very low: could it reverse?
current likelihood for a 50+ bps hike after the October 2026 Fed meeting is very low, but inflation or jobs surprises could quickly reverse expectations; evidence shows the probability of a 25 bps hike in October has risen to about 50%.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
FinanceTracking
Is near-zero Fed 50bps cut probability overconfident?
current likelihood for >50bp cut after Oct 2026 is very low, reflecting expectations of sticky inflation or resilience, but evidence doesn't establish overconfidence; an unexpectedly larger cut could trigger global asset price ripple effects.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
FinanceTracking
CoreWeave bond yields top 15%: what's next for its AI debt model?
CoreWeave uses long-term customer contracts as collateral to raise debt for AI data centers; 2026 revenue surged but losses widened, and bond yields near 15% raised concerns about the sustainability of its high-debt growth model.
Watching: CoreWeave的违约概率和债券价格受AI算力需求、客户集中度及融资市场情绪影响，未来走势存在高度不确定性；公司可能采取的措施（如资产出售、战略投资）及其效果均未明确。
FinanceTracking
Equity fund threshold cut to 50M yuan: what opportunities for small fund firms?
CSRC proposes lowering equity fund establishment threshold from 200 million to 50 million yuan, easing small fund firms' product launches and expanding investor choices, while raising mini-fund risk concerns.
Watching: 草案尚在征求意见阶段，最终规则可能调整；门槛降低的实际效果取决于市场环境和基金公司策略，且固定收益类基金门槛未变，影响范围有限。
FinanceTracking
China's Sept exports surge 36.3%: how sustainable is the AI-driven boom?
Evidence shows AI-related products (e.g., integrated circuits) were a major driver of September export growth, but no exact share is given; sustainability depends on price rises and base effects.
Latest development: New September export report identifies AI-related products as a key driver, but no specific share is provided.
FinanceTracking
After $1.2B fine, will BofA's compliance fixes work?
Bank of America was fined $1.2 billion for AML and sanctions violations; it has invested billions in remediation, but effectiveness in preventing future violations remains subject to regulatory assessment.
Latest development: New evidence confirms Bank of America has invested billions in compliance remediation and is implementing regulator-required measures, but no specific assessment of effectiveness is provided.
FinanceTracking
Does 6.7% drop after denial reflect turnaround doubts?
Starbucks' 6.7% intraday drop after denying Chipotle acquisition mainly reflects fading M&A speculation and deal concerns, not direct evidence of lost confidence in its transformation strategy.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
FinanceTracking
Polymarket 80.5% Fed hold Oct: why so confident?
Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at the October meeting, as inflation remains elevated, employment is strong, and futures pricing indicates a high probability of no change.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
FinanceTracking
Signals from 0.55% Fed cut odds and impacts?
Extremely low market odds for an October cut reflect sticky inflation and strong jobs; if no cut occurs, higher-for-longer rates could pressure global risk assets and intensify capital outflows from emerging markets.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
FinanceTracking
IMF warns: How will uneven AI, energy shocks, and record debt affect global growth?
IMF's latest forecast sees AI investment lifting global growth to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, but warns energy shocks, AI pullback, and high debt pose downside risks; Asia growth may slow to 4.4% next year.
Latest development: New IMF October 2026 WEO forecasts: global growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027; China 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027; Asia growth may slow to 4.4% next year.
FinanceTracking
Which completes IPO first before Dec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET: Anthropic or OpenAI?
Anthropic's IPO timeline still points to November, but valuation expectations have been cut from ~$2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, and New York City's comptroller has publicly urged a delay, raising near-term uncertainty.
Latest development: Reuters exclusively reported investors tempering Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over slowing revenue growth
FinanceTracking
Will Anthropic complete IPO before Dec 31, 2026?
IPO completed before 2027
73%
Observation: Reuters reports investors cut Anthropic's IPO valuation expectations to about $1.5 trillion from $2 trillion over slowing revenue growth
FinanceTracking
Semiconductor selloff: AI bubble burst or short-term correction?
短期调整，市场在三个月内回升至抛售前水平
不确定，证据不足以判断
AI投资泡沫破裂，市场动荡标志着长期下行趋势的开始
FinanceTracking
Will WTI crude fall below $70 in remaining October 2026 window?
Event probability
35%
FinanceTracking
Does low WTI $80 probability reflect overconcern or deeper drop?
油价面临更深度的回调：WTI原油价格在2026年12月31日前跌破80美元/桶，表明市场低概率未能充分反映供需失衡，油价深度回调。
市场对供需失衡的过度担忧：WTI原油价格未在2026年12月31日前跌破80美元/桶，表明市场低概率反映了过度担忧，油价未深度回调。
FinanceTracking
Will Anthropic IPO and trade publicly in 2026, and when?
IPO by December 31
IPO by October 31
IPO by September 30Closed
Observation: Bloomberg reported Anthropic expects to launch its IPO roadshow in early November with a valuation of up to $2 trillion
FinanceTracking
Will WTI crude futures surpass $147.27 all-time high by Dec 31, 2026?
Event probability
4%
Watching: 关注WTI原油期货主力合约在2026年12月31日前是否出现超过147.27美元/桶的收盘价。
FinanceTracking
Will Fed lower federal funds rate upper bound by Oct and Dec 2026 meetings?
Rate cut by December meeting
Rate cut by October meeting
Observation: CITIC Securities expects the Fed to hold rates in October and hike 25 bp in December, citing higher-than-expected September CPI and renewed monthly core inflation gains.
FinanceTracking
How would unexpected Dec cut alter 2027 rate path?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 关注12月FOMC会议是否降息，以及随后点阵图、经济预测和官员讲话对2027年利率路径的暗示。
FinanceTracking
Clarity Act becomes U.S. law in 2026?
Signed into law in 2026
5.9%
Observation: The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act in a 49-50 vote, leaving the bill stalled.
FinanceTracking
How many 25bp Fed rate cuts in 2026, incl. emergency and December?
Zero rate cuts
Two rate cuts
Three rate cuts
Five rate cuts
Observation: The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, its first hike since 2023, with the dot plot signaling at least one more increase this year.
Resolved questions
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Parnu vs Nomme Kalju: Does cancellation resolving 'Yes' cause overpricing?
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ETH 1h candle 99.95% Up: result confirmed?
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