Will WTI crude futures surpass $147.27 all-time high by Dec 31, 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
2. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 96%.; As of October 14, 2026, available evidence shows WTI crude oil futures trading well below the historical high of $147.27. Real-time quotes in late July 2026 were around $85 per barrel, with a July 24 closing price of $92.19. A September 2026 forecast projects November and December 2026 highs of $101.08 and $107.35, respectively, both below $147.27. However, these reports do not cover actual trading from October to December 2026, so an extreme price spike before the deadline cannot be ruled out based solely on this evidence.
3. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 96%.; As of mid-October 2026, the available evidence shows WTI crude oil futures prices far below the historical high of $147.27 per barrel. Closing prices in late July 2026 ranged from $78.95 to $92.19, January 2026 prices were in the $57–$60 range, and September 2026 forecasts suggest November highs around $101.08 and December highs around $107.35, all below $147.27. None of these reports indicate that prices have reached or exceeded that level, nor do they project prices approaching it in the coming months. However, these reports only cover through September or October 2026, and forecast data are not actual trading prices, so the possibility of an extreme price spike before December 31, 2026 cannot be entirely ruled out.