Assange 2027 Nobel Peace Prize at 3.9%: is the market underestimating?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
2. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 95%.; The only available evidence is a report about a 2026 Nobel Peace Prize prediction list, which does not mention Julian Assange. Published on October 4, 2026, before the current assessment date, the report focuses on candidates like the International Space Station and Trump, providing no information about Assange's chances for the 2027 prize. Thus, this evidence neither confirms nor denies whether Assange will win the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, nor does it assess whether the market underestimates his probability. The key uncertainty is the absence of specific nominations, committee dynamics, or statements regarding Assange; future clarity would require explicit information from the Nobel Committee or reliable sources.
3. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 96%.; The sole report, published on October 4, 2026, covers a Nobel Peace Prize prediction list but does not mention Julian Assange. The list, released on September 22 by acting director Haakon Jarlov of the Oslo Peace Research Institute, focuses on candidates like the International Space Station and Donald Trump, with no reference to Assange. Thus, this evidence neither supports nor refutes Assange's chances, and provides no information on his nomination, review, or market assessment. The key uncertainty is the absence of Assange-specific evidence, making it impossible to determine whether the market underestimates his likelihood.
4. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 96%.; The available evidence indicates that the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is about to be announced, with Trump popular in betting markets but considered unlikely by experts; Assange sued the Nobel committee, arguing the 2025 award to Machado deviated from Nobel's will. These reports do not mention whether Assange has been nominated or shortlisted for 2027, nor provide substantive assessment of his chances. Thus, this report cannot confirm whether the market underestimates his likelihood; the key uncertainty lies in 2027 nominations and committee deliberations.