Will Texas enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Texas enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 72%.; In September 2026, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a halt to the approval of new data center construction permits pending a review of grid connection and water usage concerns. This executive directive, implemented by the state environmental quality commission, constitutes a state-level freeze but does not constitute a statewide moratorium in the sense of a legally binding law or executive order. The supplied evidence does not indicate that this directive has been converted into such a moratorium, nor does it mention any legislative action. Therefore, as of the report dates, it remains uncertain whether Texas will enact such a moratorium by the end of 2028.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 73%.; In September 2026, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a halt to data center construction permits pending grid and water audits. This executive directive, implemented by the state environmental quality commission, is an administrative measure, not a law passed by the legislature. The supplied evidence does not indicate that a moratorium has been enacted as a statute or executive order with statewide legal effect. Thus, these reports do not establish whether Texas will pass a statewide moratorium by the end of 2028.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 76%.; In September 2026, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a halt to approvals of new data center construction permits pending a review of grid connection and water usage. This executive directive, implemented by the state environmental quality commission, constitutes a state-level freeze but is not a statewide law or executive order enacted by the legislature or governor. The reports do not clarify whether this moratorium is legally binding, applies statewide, or whether such legislation will pass by the end of 2028. Thus, the evidence does not directly establish that the statewide moratorium in question will be enacted by the deadline.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 77%.; In September 2026, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a halt to new data center construction permits pending a review of grid connection and water usage. This executive directive, implemented by the state environmental quality commission, is a state-level freeze but not a legally binding statewide moratorium enacted by the legislature or governor. The evidence does not indicate that this directive has been converted into such a moratorium, nor does it mention any legislative action. Thus, whether a statewide moratorium will be enacted by end-2028 remains uncertain, and future formal enactment is the key signal.