Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Missouri enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 87%.; As of October 12, 2026, the supplied evidence contains no legislative or executive action on a statewide data center moratorium in Missouri. The evidence primarily concerns Maine: its legislature passed a moratorium, but the governor vetoed it, citing a specific project exemption. An August 2026 report mentions Missouri legislators passing consumer protection bills in response to AI data center power demand, but does not mention a moratorium. Thus, these reports do not establish whether Missouri will enact a statewide moratorium by June 30, 2027; the key uncertainty is future legislative or executive action.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 88%.; The available evidence primarily concerns Maine's data center moratorium, not Missouri. Maine's governor vetoed a statewide data center ban that would have lasted until November 1, 2027. Another report mentions Missouri legislators passing consumer protection bills in response to AI data center power demand, but it does not mention any moratorium. Thus, these reports do not establish that Missouri will enact a statewide moratorium by June 30, 2027.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 88%.; The supplied evidence focuses on Maine's data center moratorium, not Missouri's. Maine's governor vetoed that state's statewide data center construction ban, which would have lasted until November 1, 2027. An August 2026 report mentions Missouri legislators passing consumer protection bills in response to AI data center electricity demand, but it does not mention any statewide moratorium. Thus, these reports do not establish that Missouri has enacted a moratorium by June 30, 2027, nor do they provide evidence of progress or obstacles. The key uncertainty is whether Missouri will follow Maine's legislative path, but the evidence does not confirm it.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 88%.; The supplied evidence mainly concerns Maine, not Missouri: Maine's governor vetoed a statewide data center moratorium, and its legislature had passed a similar bill. For Missouri, only an August 2026 report mentions that state legislators passed consumer protection bills addressing AI data centers' electricity demand, but it does not mention any statewide moratorium proposal or enactment. Thus, these reports do not establish that Missouri has enacted a moratorium, nor do they provide a clear signal of legislative progress. The key uncertainty is whether Missouri will act by June 30, 2027, and the current evidence lacks direct information on that.