Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Oklahoma enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 82%.; As of October 2026, the supplied evidence does not show that Oklahoma has enacted a statewide data center moratorium. A July 2026 report lists Oklahoma among states with 'state-level legislation under consideration,' proposing to restrict renewable energy priority for AI data centers rather than imposing a direct moratorium. An August 2026 report notes New York's statewide pause but does not mention Oklahoma. These reports provide no evidence of Oklahoma enacting a moratorium, nor do they clarify legislative progress or timelines. Thus, the evidence is insufficient to support enactment by end-2028, but future enactment cannot be ruled out.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 82%.; As of October 2026, Oklahoma has not enacted a statewide data center moratorium. The evidence shows Oklahoma is listed among states restricting renewable energy priority for AI data centers, raising costs, but no statewide moratorium is mentioned. Meanwhile, New York has signed the first statewide freeze, and Maine's statewide moratorium bill was vetoed. These reports do not establish whether Oklahoma has passed or is considering a statewide moratorium. Thus, the evidence cannot confirm that Oklahoma will enact such a moratorium by end-2028; the key uncertainty is whether Oklahoma will move from indirect restrictions to an explicit moratorium.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 82%.; The supplied evidence lists Oklahoma as a state that restricts renewable power priority for AI data centers and raises costs, but does not mention any statewide data center moratorium there. Other states, such as New York, have enacted statewide freezes, and Maine's similar bill was vetoed, but these do not involve Oklahoma. As of October 2026, there is no evidence that Oklahoma has enacted such a moratorium, nor is its legislative progress specified. Thus, these reports cannot establish whether Oklahoma will pass a moratorium by the end of 2028; the key uncertainty is future state-level legislative or executive action.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 79%.; As of October 2026, the supplied reports indicate that Oklahoma has proposed a data center construction freeze bill, but none mention that the state has enacted a statewide moratorium. Similar measures in other states (e.g., Maine, New York) are either pending or awaiting signature, and 69 counties/municipalities nationwide have enacted moratoriums, but these are local. The reports do not clarify Oklahoma's likelihood of passing a statewide moratorium by end-2028, nor do they provide a specific legislative timeline. Thus, the evidence is insufficient to confirm a statewide moratorium, with key uncertainty lying in future legislative actions.