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FinanceTracking

Does low WTI $80 probability reflect overconcern or deeper drop?

As of Oct 12, 2026; 17% probability

Our assessment

油价面临更深度的回调：WTI原油价格在2026年12月31日前跌破80美元/桶，表明市场低概率未能充分反映供需失衡，油价深度回调。
52%+33.0 pp vs previous
市场对供需失衡的过度担忧：WTI原油价格未在2026年12月31日前跌破80美元/桶，表明市场低概率反映了过度担忧，油价未深度回调。
48%-33.0 pp vs previous

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 06:11 PM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Statewide; by end of 2028

Our assessment

Event probability

21%

+3.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 俄克拉何马州立法机构或州长是否提出并签署全州数据中心暂停令。

Assessed Oct 15, 06:07 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:34 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Texas enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

By the end of 2028

Our assessment

Event probability

77%

+1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 德克萨斯州立法机构是否在2028年底前通过并签署全州数据中心暂停令。

Assessed Oct 15, 06:00 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:34 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

By the end of 2028

Our assessment

Event probability

19%

-1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 北卡罗来纳州议会或州长办公室是否提出或通过全州数据中心暂停令的立法或行政令。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:57 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:33 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2026?

By the end of 2026

Our assessment

Event probability

-1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 北卡罗来纳州议会提出并推进数据中心暂停相关法案，或州长签署行政令。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 05:56 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:33 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

By June 30, 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

12%

Watching: 密苏里州议会是否在2027年常规会期提出并表决数据中心暂停法案，以及州长是否签署。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 05:55 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:32 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will any AI lab announce a full solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by end of 2026?

By the end of 2026, at least one Millennium Prize Problem

Our assessment

Event probability

19%

+4.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 克雷数学研究所或主要数学期刊是否正式接受或认可任何AI生成的千禧年难题证明。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:53 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:32 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Apple remain the world's largest company by market cap through end of 2026?

As of December 31, 2026

Our assessment

Event probability

29%

-1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 关注2026年12月31日美股收盘后各公司市值排名，以及苹果与英伟达等主要竞争对手的市值差距变化。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:52 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:32 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Oklahoma enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

By June 30, 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

12%

Watching: 俄克拉何马州立法机构或州长是否提出并推进数据中心暂停相关法案或行政令。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:50 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:31 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Ohio enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

By the end of 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

18%

+3.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 俄亥俄州议会提出并推进数据中心暂停法案，或州长签署相关行政令。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:49 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:31 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

By the end of 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

14%

-2.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 北卡罗来纳州议会是否提出并推进全州数据中心暂停法案，以及州长是否签署。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:47 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:31 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

By the end of 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

12%

+1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 密苏里州立法机构是否提出并推进数据中心暂停法案，以及州长是否签署。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 05:43 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:31 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Ohio enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Ohio enacts statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027

Our assessment

Event probability

17%

+1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 俄亥俄州立法机构是否提出或通过数据中心暂停法案，或州长是否签署相关行政令。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:40 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:30 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Will Texas enact moratorium on new large data centers by end of 2027?

By end of 2027, Texas enacts statewide moratorium on new large data centers (over 100 MW interconnection capacity per facility)

Our assessment

Event probability

13%

Watching: 得州立法机构是否在2027年常规会期提出并推进暂停大型数据中心的法案。

Assessed Oct 15, 05:37 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:29 AM UTC

View evidence and history

Question trackingTracking

Can Netanyahu form coalition after Oct 27 election?

After the Oct 27, 2026 Israeli election, Netanyahu becomes PM again.

Our assessment

Event probability

19%

-5.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 关注10月27日选举结果、各党派席位分布及总统授权组阁进程。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 03:57 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:28 AM UTC

View evidence and history

WorldTracking

Likelihood of US ending Iran naval blockade by Oct 15?

By October 15, 2026, the US announces an end to its naval blockade of Iran.

Our assessment

Event probability

86%

+23.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 关注美国官方声明或美军中央司令部关于解除封锁的公告。

Assessed Oct 15, 03:46 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 02:08 PM UTC

View evidence and history

WorldTracking

Will US-Iran reach Hormuz traffic deal by Oct 23?

By October 23, 2026, US and Iran reach a formal agreement on Strait of Hormuz traffic.

Our assessment

Event probability

84%

+71.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 美伊官方关于海峡通行协议的正式声明或签署消息。

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 03:43 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:26 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Does Apple's 88% chance of a 2026 touchscreen MacBook signal a stance shift?

Observation ends Jan 2, 2027 UTC

Our assessment

苹果在2026年发布触屏MacBook，且macOS原生支持触控，并明确将macOS与iOS生态进一步融合（如统一应用商店、跨平台应用无缝运行等），彻底改变交互边界并放弃抵制。
64%
苹果未在2026年发布触屏MacBook。
20%
苹果在2026年发布触屏MacBook，但触控仅作为辅助输入，macOS与iOS边界保持清晰，未明确放弃抵制立场。
16%

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 03:42 PM UTC

View evidence and history

WorldTracking

Will Reform Party's 50% probability shift with polling or coalition changes?

Estonia March 2027 election, Reform Party at 50% to win most seats, potential shifts before vote

Our assessment

Event probability

63%

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 03:13 PM UTC

View evidence and history

Question trackingTracking

2026 midterms: Probability Democrats win 6+ House seats in Tennessee?

2026 midterm elections; Democrats; Tennessee; House seats; 6 or more

Our assessment

Event probability

-1.0 pp vs previous

Watching: 关注田纳西州各选区选举结果，特别是民主党在第五、第六、第七选区的表现。

Assessed Oct 15, 01:45 PM UTCChecked Oct 16, 04:43 AM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Can global AI safety rules be effectively implemented?

Microsoft president calls for urgent regulation, UK leads, but divergent stances and limited resources

Our assessment

Event probability

35%

-7.0 pp vs previous

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 12:36 PM UTC

View evidence and history

TechnologyTracking

Is a 26% chance of Anthropic's IPO day market cap between $2.0T and $2.25T credible?

IPO before 2028, as of October 2026

Our assessment

Event probability

45%

+1.0 pp vs previous

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 12:23 PM UTC

View evidence and history

WorldTracking

Russia strike Kyiv Oct 21 at 17%: de-escalation?

As of October 13, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv on October 21.

Our assessment

否，主要反映其他因素（如市场操纵、流动性不足、信息不对称等）
53%+4.0 pp vs previous
是，主要反映对冲突降级或军事重点转移的预期
47%-4.0 pp vs previous

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 11:38 AM UTC

View evidence and history

WorldTracking

Russia strike Kyiv Oct 22 at 16.5%: material shift?

As of October 13, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv on October 22.

Our assessment

Event probability

50%

+3.0 pp vs previous

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

Assessed Oct 15, 11:37 AM UTC

View evidence and history

Tracked questions

Does low WTI $80 probability reflect overconcern or deeper drop?

Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Will Texas enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2026?

Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Will any AI lab announce a full solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by end of 2026?

Will Apple remain the world's largest company by market cap through end of 2026?

Will Oklahoma enact a statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Will Ohio enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Will Ohio enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Will Texas enact moratorium on new large data centers by end of 2027?

Can Netanyahu form coalition after Oct 27 election?

Likelihood of US ending Iran naval blockade by Oct 15?

Will US-Iran reach Hormuz traffic deal by Oct 23?

Does Apple's 88% chance of a 2026 touchscreen MacBook signal a stance shift?

Will Reform Party's 50% probability shift with polling or coalition changes?

2026 midterms: Probability Democrats win 6+ House seats in Tennessee?

Can global AI safety rules be effectively implemented?

Is a 26% chance of Anthropic's IPO day market cap between $2.0T and $2.25T credible?

Russia strike Kyiv Oct 21 at 17%: de-escalation?

Russia strike Kyiv Oct 22 at 16.5%: material shift?