TechnologyTracking
Can Bee AI devices win user privacy trust?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 报道未提及具体隐私政策细节、数据加密标准或第三方审计情况，用户信任程度尚不明确。
Question tracking
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Tracked questions
FinanceTracking
NVIDIA largest company by market cap on Dec 31?
NVIDIA becomes world's largest company
70%
Observation: Baseline likelihood rose from 66.5% to 70%, extending last period's recovery
TechnologyTracking
If Google's magic state cultivation scales, can hardware needs drop 40x?
Google demonstrated magic state cultivation on Willow, cutting error rate ~40x with 99.99% fidelity, but only using 54 qubits; large-scale extension and 40x hardware reduction remain unverified.
Watching: 谷歌仅使用54个量子比特进行演示，更大规模下的性能未知；40倍错误率降低是否直接转化为硬件需求减少40倍尚不明确。
TechnologyTracking
China's export control revisions: how will AI, biomedicine, and solar tech exports be affected?
On Oct 16, 2026, MOFCOM and MOST sought public comments on revising the export control catalog, proposing to add 40 AI, biopharma, and solar technologies and implement interim registration management.
Watching: 修订尚在征求意见阶段，最终目录内容和临时登记管理的具体操作细则未公布，对技术出口的实际影响存在不确定性。
WorldTracking
Can Talarico overcome narrowed lead to beat Paxton?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 民调显示塔拉里科领先但优势缩小，具体差距和选举日结果存在不确定性；特朗普的警告和辩论结果可能改变选情。
TechnologyTracking
Can Anthropic's independent evaluation pledge deliver?
Anthropic has granted METR employee-level access, but no report has been published; independence remains uncertain due to confidentiality redactions and commercial interests.
Watching: METR 尚未发布任何基于该访问权限的评估报告，其实际独立性和披露程度未知；Anthropic 的删减权范围（如模型架构细节）可能涵盖关键安全信息，但具体执行情况不明。
TechnologyTracking
Gemini 4 Argon doubles price after launch—how will AI market competition shift?
Gemini 4 Argon launched globally on Oct 13 with pricing at one-fifth of rivals, doubling after Nov 30, likely intensifying price competition and reshaping the AI market.
Watching: 报道未说明价格翻倍后用户是否会流失，也未提及谷歌是否计划推出替代定价或促销活动。此外，性能对比基于特定基准，实际应用中的表现可能因任务而异。
WorldTracking
Pentagon livestream of Hasan execution: deterrent or division?
Latest reports say Trump halted the live broadcast of the execution, but the death sentence remains; deterrence effect lacks evidence and may fuel violence.
Latest development: An Oct 16 report confirms Trump halted the live-streaming part while the execution proceeds, updating the earlier plan.
TechnologyTracking
Kling 4.0 launch: how will its open API reshape the video generation market?
Kling AI released Kling 4.0 on Sept 28, 2026, supporting 30-second native video; Flash version began limited testing, full version planned for October, API details not disclosed.
Watching: Kling 4.0的API具体开放时间、定价策略、实际生成质量（如30秒片段的连贯性）以及企业采用率均未公布，且竞争对手（如Runway、Pika）可能推出类似功能，市场影响存在变数。
TechnologyTracking
Can Anthropic's internal access for METR set a new standard for AI safety evaluation?
Anthropic granted six METR evaluators employee-level access; METR can publish independently but with redaction limits. Whether this becomes an industry standard remains uncertain.
Watching: METR评估的实际效果未知，Anthropic的删节权可能限制透明度，其他公司是否跟进尚不确定。
TechnologyTracking
What financial or operational concerns drive CoreWeave's 28% bankruptcy probability?
The market's elevated bankruptcy probability for CoreWeave reflects concerns over high leverage, debt costs exceeding returns, large negative free cash flow, and customer concentration risks.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Press secretary claims attorney without bar—impact on trust?
Zacharia claimed to be a lawyer without a license, prompting complaints and media scrutiny that may erode public trust in White House information credibility, though no direct polling data exists.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Will Vučić become Serbia's PM by June 30, 2028?
Event probability
62%
Watching: 关注2026年10月25日议会选举结果及后续组阁进程，武契奇是否被正式提名为总理候选人并宣誓就职。
WorldTracking
Probability Russia strikes Kyiv on Oct 19?
Event probability
83%
WorldTracking
Russia strike Kyiv Oct 17 at 25%: understated?
Event probability
60%
WorldTracking
Russia strike Kyiv Oct 16 at 21.5%: what risk?
市场预期俄罗斯将采取行动
市场担忧冲突升级
市场反应信息不确定性
其他因素
WorldTracking
Thunberg 2027 Nobel Peace Prize at 4.5%: what factors explain?
无法确定主要因素，或多种因素共同作用且难以区分主次。
诺贝尔委员会倾向于选择其他类型候选人（如国际法、人权、冲突解决领域），而非气候活动家。
2026年获奖者Navi Pillay代表国际法与人权方向，委员会可能延续该方向，降低Thunberg获奖概率。
地缘政治因素或诺贝尔委员会内部考量（如避免争议、奖项声誉）导致低概率。
WorldTracking
Assange 2027 Nobel Peace Prize at 3.9%: is the market underestimating?
Event probability
4%
WorldTracking
How would <170 Bab el-Mandeb transits affect supply chains and security?
低于170艘
至少170艘
WorldTracking
Will 230+ ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Oct 19-25?
Event probability
34%
Watching: 关注10月19-25日每日曼德海峡船舶通行量数据，特别是周度累计是否达到230艘。
FinanceTracking
Will WTI crude futures surpass $147.27 all-time high by Dec 31, 2026?
Event probability
4%
Watching: 关注WTI原油期货主力合约在2026年12月31日前是否出现超过147.27美元/桶的收盘价。
WorldTracking
Flydubai co-pilot plot: will Middle East airlines tighten pilot vetting?
Event probability
59%
Watching: 关注阿联酋民航总局（GCAA）、国际民航组织（ICAO）及中东主要航空公司是否发布新的飞行员审查或心理健康筛查政策。
WorldTracking
Does 17.5% invasion probability underestimate Mideast risk?
Event probability
56%
Question trackingTracking
When will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen?
2027年12月31日前未彻底开放
2026年10月8日至2026年12月31日期间彻底开放
2027年1月1日至2027年3月31日期间彻底开放
2027年4月1日至2027年6月30日期间彻底开放