WorldTracking
Can Talarico overcome narrowed lead to beat Paxton?
After Talarico's flu absence narrowed his lead, can he defeat Paxton in the November election?
Watching: 民调显示塔拉里科领先但优势缩小，具体差距和选举日结果存在不确定性；特朗普的警告和辩论结果可能改变选情。
Current read
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Starting public context: Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico returned to the campaign trail after a nine-day absence due to the flu, which had rattled the race and sparked conservative speculation, including false rumors amplified by Elon Musk that he was in Ohio or a mental facility. Talarico dismissed the theories as "silly season," said "I just had the flu," and challenged Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton to a debate. Former President Donald Trump called for a Paxton-Talarico debate and warned he would "never forgive" Texas if Talarico wins. Polls show Talarico ahead but his lead narrowing.
How we read it
Starting public context
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico returned to the campaign trail after a nine-day absence due to the flu, which had rattled the race and sparked conservative speculation, including false rumors amplified by Elon Musk that he was in Ohio or a mental facility. Talarico dismissed the theories as "silly season," said "I just had the flu," and challenged Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton to a debate. Former President Donald Trump called for a Paxton-Talarico debate and warned he would "never forgive" Texas if Talarico wins. Polls show Talarico ahead but his lead narrowing.