Probability Russia strikes Kyiv on Oct 19?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this
2. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 81%.; As of October 14, 2026, the supplied reports indicate that Russia conducted multiple air and missile strikes on Kyiv between October 6 and 9, 2026, including a large-scale attack on October 6-8 and a drone strike on October 9, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. These reports show recent ongoing attacks but do not provide specific strike records after October 10. Thus, the evidence supports a high likelihood of an attack on Kyiv before October 19, but it does not confirm that at least one attack will definitely occur by the deadline.
3. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 83%.; As of mid-October 2026, multiple reports document large-scale Russian air and missile strikes on Kyiv. On October 5, air raid sirens in Kyiv lasted over 9 hours, with more than 50 missiles and nearly 500 attack drones launched. An October 6 report mentions 1,700 aerial bombs dropped on Kyiv, and an October 12 report describes another large-scale missile strike. This evidence establishes that at least one Russian air or missile attack on Kyiv occurred before the question's deadline, so the outcome is already resolved as 'Yes'. The reports do not detail attacks after October 19, but the prior strikes satisfy the resolution criteria.