WorldTracking
Will 230+ ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Oct 19-25?
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19 and October 25, 2026?
Watching: 关注10月19-25日每日曼德海峡船舶通行量数据，特别是周度累计是否达到230艘。
Current read
The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 66%.
Our assessment
否
是
Evidence context
The supplied evidence shows that Bab el-Mandeb transits in mid-September 2026 were well below the target level: Kpler recorded only 21 ships on September 14 versus a normal level of about 28, a roughly 25% weekly drop; Houthi figures cite 408 ships from September 11-21, averaging about 41 per day, far below the 230-per-week threshold. Additionally, only 6 ships transited on September 10, and several shipping firms were evaluating rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. These data indicate current transit volumes are far below 230 per week, but the reports do not provide actual figures for the week of October 19-25, so they cannot directly confirm whether that week's total will reach or exceed 230.
Related facts and sources
Kpler data show 21 ships transited Bab el-Mandeb on September 14, 2026, versus a normal level of about 28, a roughly 25% weekly decline, indicating current volumes are far below the 230-per-week threshold.
Houthi figures cite 408 ships transiting from September 11-21, averaging about 41 per day, far below the 230-per-week threshold; only 6 ships transited on September 10.
The reports do not provide actual transit figures for the week of October 19-25, so they cannot directly confirm whether that week will reach or exceed 230 ships; future data is needed.
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 66%.; The supplied evidence shows that Bab el-Mandeb transits in mid-September 2026 were well below the target level: Kpler recorded only 21 ships on September 14 versus a normal level of about 28, a roughly 25% weekly drop; Houthi figures cite 408 ships from September 11-21, averaging about 41 per day, far below the 230-per-week threshold. Additionally, only 6 ships transited on September 10, and several shipping firms were evaluating rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. These data indicate current transit volumes are far below 230 per week, but the reports do not provide actual figures for the week of October 19-25, so they cannot directly confirm whether that week's total will reach or exceed 230.