WorldTracking
How would <170 Bab el-Mandeb transits affect supply chains and security?
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-25, and how might a decline in this critical shipping lane affect global supply chains and regional security?
Current read
The most likely outcome is "低于170艘", with a our assessmentestimate of 98%.
Our assessment
低于170艘
至少170艘
Evidence context
Available evidence indicates that since September 2026, after Houthi forces seized key coastal positions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, daily transits fell sharply from about 29 to 6 vessels, a drop of nearly 80% (evidence 1, 2, 3). These reports were published between October 4 and 9, before the October 19-25 window in question, and do not provide specific transit counts for that period. Thus, the evidence supports an expectation of well below 170 vessels, but cannot directly confirm the actual statistics for the target week.
Related facts and sources
Reports from October 4 and 8, 2026, both state that after Houthi forces captured the port of Mukha, daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell from about 29 to 6 vessels, a drop of nearly 80%.
An October 9 report says that on October 8, only single-digit vessels passed through the strait, compared to hundreds per day two years earlier.
None of these reports provide transit data for October 19-25, so they cannot directly confirm whether the total vessel count for the target week was below 170.
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- — The most likely outcome is "低于170艘", with a our assessmentestimate of 98%.; Available evidence indicates that since September 2026, after Houthi forces seized key coastal positions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, daily transits fell sharply from about 29 to 6 vessels, a drop of nearly 80% (evidence 1, 2, 3). These reports were published between October 4 and 9, before the October 19-25 window in question, and do not provide specific transit counts for that period. Thus, the evidence supports an expectation of well below 170 vessels, but cannot directly confirm the actual statistics for the target week.