Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

Earlier updates

1. Aug 10, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood holds steady with no new information to drive a reassessment.; No significant events or reports directly related to WTI crude oil price movements emerged in the past 24 hours. In the absence of new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data, the assessment of the likelihood of oil hitting a high of $85 in August remains unchanged.
2. Aug 10, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rose sharply, but with no new events to support it, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. Although the baseline likelihood reading rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points, the absence of new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data makes it impossible to verify or adjust for this movement. The synthesized read therefore holds steady with the prior judgment that no new information has driven a reassessment.
3. Aug 10, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged up slightly, but with no new events to support it, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading rose by 5 percentage points, but this movement lacks any new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to substantiate it. The synthesized read therefore remains unchanged from the prior judgment, as no new information warrants a reassessment.
4. Aug 11, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rose sharply, but with no events to support the move, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. The baseline likelihood reading rose sharply by 11 percentage points, but the move lacks supporting evidence from new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data, making verification or adjustment impossible. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment: no new information warrants a reassessment.
5. Aug 11, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged down slightly, but with no events to support the move, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. The baseline likelihood reading dipped by 2 percentage points, but this shift lacks supporting evidence from new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to verify or adjust against. The synthesized read holds steady at the prior judgment, as no new information warrants a reassessment.
6. Aug 11, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood continued to fall, but with no events to support the move, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell by 6.5 percentage points, but this move lacks any supporting evidence from new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to verify or adjust against. The synthesized read holds at the prior judgment: no new information warrants a reassessment.
7. Aug 11, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood continued to decline, but with no events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell by 6 percentage points, but the move lacks supporting evidence from new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data, making verification or adjustment impossible. The synthesized read holds at the previous judgment: no new information warrants a reassessment.
8. Aug 11, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged down slightly with no new events in the period; the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell by only 0.5 percentage points, a minimal fluctuation unsupported by any new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data that could be verified or adjusted against. The synthesized read holds to the prior judgment: no new information warrants a reassessment.
9. Aug 12, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rose sharply, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading surged by 25 percentage points, a sharp swing, but without new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to verify or adjust against, the synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment—no new information has emerged to drive a reassessment.
10. Aug 13, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood fell sharply, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell sharply by 15 percentage points, but without new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to corroborate the move, no verification or adjustment can be made. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment, as no new information warrants a reassessment.
11. Aug 13, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged lower, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell by 4 percentage points, but without new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to corroborate the move, no verification or adjustment can be made. The synthesized read holds steady from the prior judgment: no new information warrants a reassessment.
12. Aug 13, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood continued to fall, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell a further 6.5 percentage points, but without fresh supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to corroborate the move, the shift cannot be verified or adjusted against. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment: no new information has emerged to drive a reassessment.
13. Aug 14, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood continued to fall sharply, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell another 11 percentage points, but without fresh supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to anchor the move, the shift cannot be verified or adjusted. The synthesized read holds steady: no new information has arrived to warrant a reassessment.
14. Aug 14, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rebounded sharply, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading rebounded by 17 percentage points, but without new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to corroborate the move, the shift cannot be verified or adjusted. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment, reflecting an absence of new information to drive a reassessment.
15. Aug 15, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged down slightly, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell by 4 percentage points, but without new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to corroborate the move, the shift cannot be verified or adjusted. The synthesized read holds steady from the prior judgment: no new information warrants a reassessment.
16. Aug 15, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood continued to fall, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading fell a further 5.5 percentage points, but without fresh supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data, this movement cannot be verified or adjusted against. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment: no new information warrants a reassessment.
17. Aug 15, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged up slightly, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading rebounded by 3.5 percentage points, but without fresh supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data, this movement cannot be verified or adjusted. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment: no new information warrants a reassessment.
18. Aug 16, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged higher, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. The baseline likelihood reading rose 2.5 percentage points, but without fresh supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to corroborate the move, the shift cannot be verified or adjusted against. The synthesized read holds steady: no new information warrants a reassessment.
19. Aug 16, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood held flat with no new events in the period; the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. The baseline likelihood reading remained completely flat, showing no movement. With no fresh supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to draw on, the synthesized read holds steady at the prior judgment—there is simply no new information to warrant a reassessment.
20. Aug 17, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rose notably, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. Although the baseline likelihood reading rose by 7 percentage points, the absence of fresh supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data makes it impossible to identify a concrete driver behind the move. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment, as no new information warrants a reassessment.
21. Aug 17, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rose sharply, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. While the baseline likelihood reading rose by 12 percentage points, the absence of new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data makes it impossible to identify a concrete driver behind the move. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment, as no new information warrants a reassessment.
22. Aug 17, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood continued to rise, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices emerged during this period. Although the baseline likelihood reading rose by another 5.5 percentage points, the absence of new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data makes it impossible to identify a specific driver behind the move. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment, as no new information warrants a reassessment.
23. Aug 17, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood hit 100%, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.; No news reports or events directly related to WTI crude oil prices appeared during this period. Although the baseline likelihood reading rose further from 90% to 100%, there are no new supply-demand signals, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic data to confirm the specific drivers behind this movement. The synthesized read remains unchanged from the prior judgment — no new information warrants a reassessment.