Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Earlier updates

1. Jul 31, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a roughly 44.5% probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting, unchanged this period.; No new events influencing the Fed's interest rate decision were captured during this monitoring period. current likelihood remained stable, with the probability of no rate change holding steady at approximately 44.5%, unchanged from the start of the period. In the absence of new economic data or policy signals, likelihood expectations for the September meeting outcome did not shift.
2. Aug 1, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting has fallen to about 38.5%, down 6 percentage points from the prior period.; No new economic data or policy signals were captured during this monitoring window, yet likelihood expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady cooled notably. The probability of no change fell from roughly 44.5% in the prior period to 38.5%, a decline of 6 percentage points. In the absence of specific event-driven catalysts, this shift may reflect a likelihood reassessment of inflation stickiness or the economic outlook after digesting earlier information, though the precise driver remains unclear.
3. Aug 2, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting remains steady at 38.5%, unchanged from the prior period.; The monitoring window again captured no new economic data or policy signals, leaving likelihood expectations for a Fed rate hold in September at a standstill. The probability of no change remained at 38.5% for a second consecutive period, suggesting the read are holding their positions in the absence of fresh information. The downward drift in expectations observed in the prior period did not continue, indicating the synthesized read has entered a wait-and-see phase for the next catalyst.
4. Aug 3, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting has edged up to 40.5%, a 2 percentage point increase from the prior period.; After two consecutive periods stuck at 38.5%, likelihood expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September ticked up slightly to 40.5%. The move was not driven by any new economic data or policy signals—the monitoring window remained completely devoid of relevant events. In an information vacuum, the read likely made minor adjustments to the slight selling pressure seen earlier, resulting in a modest rebound in the probability reading. Overall, the synthesized read remains in a wait-and-see mode, lacking any clear directional consensus.
5. Aug 4, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting has continued to edge up to 42.5%, a further 2 percentage point increase.; Expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September extended their mild recovery from the prior period, with the current likelihood rising another 2 percentage points to 42.5%. The monitoring window again contained no relevant economic data releases or policy signals, leaving the information environment in a continued vacuum. In the absence of new catalysts, this shift in the reading appears to reflect a further fine-tuning of the earlier wait-and-see sentiment rather than a reassessment based on substantive events. The overall picture remains one of awaiting clearer signals, with no directional consensus yet formed.
6. Aug 5, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting has surged to 48.5%, a 6 percentage point jump in a single day.; Expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September saw a sharp jump during this monitoring period, with the current likelihood surging from 42.5% to 48.5%—a 6 percentage point move in a single day, a stark contrast to the previous gradual uptrend. Yet, no economic data releases or policy signals emerged during this window, leaving the information environment in a continued vacuum. Without new catalysts, this pronounced swing lacks an identifiable event-driven trigger, appearing more like a concentrated release of prior wait-and-see sentiment in thin conditions. While the reading is now approaching the 50% threshold, the foundation for a directional consensus remains fragile.
7. Aug 6, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting has climbed further to 53.5%, a 5 percentage point gain on the day, breaking through the 50% threshold.; Expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September extended the prior day's strong momentum, with the current likelihood pushing further from 48.5% to 53.5%, a 5 percentage point gain that officially breaches the 50% mark. Two consecutive days of sharp upward movement have rapidly lifted this probability from 42.5% to a majority level, yet the information backdrop remains a complete vacuum, with no economic data releases or policy signals emerging. This persistent one-sided drift in the absence of news lacks any identifiable event-driven catalyst, appearing more like the inertial release of pent-up wait-and-see sentiment in a low-liquidity environment. While the reading has achieved a breakout, the durability of a move unsupported by fundamentals remains an open question.
8. Aug 7, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting has fallen back to 48.5%, a 5 percentage point drop on the day, erasing all of the previous day's gains.; Expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady after the September 2026 meeting reversed quickly after briefly breaching the 50% threshold, with the current likelihood falling from 53.5% to 48.5%, a 5 percentage point drop that fully erased the previous day's gains. This pullback returns the probability to a tug-of-war range, and the prior day's breakout in an information vacuum has proven unsustainable. Once again, no economic data releases or policy signals emerged during this period. Two consecutive days of sharp two-way swings occurring against a backdrop of fundamental silence suggest the current reading reflects short-term sentiment oscillation rather than any directional consensus.
9. Aug 7, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting has rebounded sharply to 61.5%, a 13 percentage point jump on the day, reversing the previous day's decline.; Expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September rebounded sharply during this period after a brief pullback the previous day. The current likelihood surged from 48.5% to 61.5%, a 13 percentage point jump that not only fully recovered the lost ground but also reached a new recent high. This movement mirrors the previous day's decline, with two consecutive days of sharp two-way swings occurring against a backdrop devoid of any economic data releases or policy signals, suggesting that short-term sentiment shifts remain the dominant driver of probability fluctuations in the absence of fundamental news.
10. Aug 8, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting has edged up to 62.5%, a 1 percentage point gain on the day, extending the previous day's rebound.; Expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September saw their momentum slow this period, edging up just 1 percentage point to 62.5% following the previous day's sharp rebound. This modest uptick occurred against a backdrop devoid of any economic data releases or policy signals, a stark contrast to the prior day's dramatic swing. With the fundamental information vacuum persisting, the current likelihood is consolidating near its recent high, suggesting short-term sentiment has entered a wait-and-see phase after the prior day's strong rally.
11. Aug 9, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting remains steady at 62.5%, with no shift in assessment amid a lack of new information.; Assessment of the Fed's September rate decision came to a complete standstill during this period. With no economic data releases, policy speeches, or relevant events, the current likelihood remained locked at 62.5%. This contrasts with the previous day's slight uptick, suggesting short-term expectations have entered a state of total stasis as the fundamental information vacuum persists.
12. Aug 10, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting edged down to 61.5%, with expectations softening slightly during an information vacuum.; The assessment of the Fed's September rate decision remained in a holding pattern this period, though the likelihood of no change slipped slightly from 62.5% to 61.5%. With no economic data releases, policy speeches, or relevant events, this minor adjustment reflects a touch of uncertainty creeping into the wait-and-see stance amid a persistent information vacuum. The prevailing expectation remains one of inaction, but its conviction has softened marginally from the prior day.
13. Aug 11, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting fell further to 58.5%, with expectations continuing to soften during a prolonged information vacuum.; During this period, the judgment on the Fed's September rate decision continued its previous downward trend, with the likelihood of no change falling further from 61.5% to 58.5%. Similar to the prior cycle, no economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events occurred. Amid a continued vacuum of fundamental information, the uncertainty brewing in the wait-and-see sentiment continued to fester, further weakening the support for expectations of a hold.
14. Aug 12, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting rebounded to 65.5%, a notable eventless recovery during an information vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision reversed notably this period, with the likelihood of no change rebounding from 58.5% at the end of the previous cycle to 65.5%, fully erasing the prior period's losses. As before, no economic data, policy speeches, or related events emerged during this window. In the continued absence of fundamental information, this rebound lacked a clear news catalyst and appears more like a technical self-correction after consecutive declines, suggesting that confidence in the 'no change' baseline scenario had not truly crumbled.
15. Aug 13, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting continued to climb to 69.5%, extending an eventless rebound during an information vacuum.; During this period, the judgment on the Fed's September rate decision extended the previous period's rebound, with the likelihood of no change climbing further from 65.5% to 69.5%. As before, no economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events occurred. In an environment of persistent fundamental information vacuum, this upward move lacks clear news catalysts and appears to be a continuation of the self-correcting momentum following earlier easing. Two consecutive periods of eventless rebound have pushed the likelihood of the 'on hold' baseline scenario close to 70%.
16. Aug 14, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting continued to climb to 73.5%, extending an eventless rebound during an information vacuum.; During this period, the judgment on the Fed's September rate decision extended the previous period's rebound, with the likelihood of no change climbing further from 69.5% to 73.5%. As before, no economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events emerged during this window. In an environment of persistent fundamental information vacuum, this upward movement lacks clear news catalysts and appears to be a continuation of the self-correcting momentum after expectations had loosened earlier. Three consecutive periods of eventless rebound have pushed the likelihood of the 'hold' baseline scenario above seventy percent.
17. Aug 15, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting edged up to 74.5%, extending a slow, eventless drift higher during an information vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision continued its prior upward trend this period, with the likelihood of no change ticking up from 73.5% to 74.5%. As in previous periods, no economic data releases, policy speeches, or related events occurred. Amid a persistent vacuum of fundamental information, this slight increase lacks a clear news catalyst and appears to be an inertial continuation of a self-correcting momentum following an earlier loosening of expectations. After multiple consecutive periods of eventless gains, the baseline scenario of holding rates steady now approaches a three-in-four likelihood.
18. Aug 16, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting dipped slightly to 73.5%, showing minor softening during an information vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision saw a slight pullback this period, with the likelihood of no change easing from 74.5% to 73.5%. Consistent with several prior periods, there were no economic data releases, policy official remarks, or related events. Amid a continued fundamental information vacuum, this minor decline lacks a clear news catalyst and appears more like a natural exhaustion of momentum following multiple periods of eventless drift higher. Despite the softening, the base-case scenario of holding rates steady remains near three-quarters, with no material change to the overall picture.
19. Aug 17, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting edged back up to 74.5%, a slight correction during a continued information vacuum.; During this period, the judgment on the Fed's September rate decision saw a slight rebound, with the likelihood of no change recovering from 73.5% to 74.5%, essentially erasing the previous period's dip. Consistent with several prior periods, there were again no economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events. In an environment of persistent fundamental information vacuum, this minor uptick lacks a clear news catalyst and appears more like a natural correction following the prior slight softening, indicating that the baseline expectation of holding steady remains firmly rooted. The overall landscape has not materially changed, and no change remains the overwhelming consensus expectation.
20. Aug 18, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood indicates the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting fell to 71.5%, a moderate decline during an information vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision saw a moderate decline this period, with the likelihood of no change falling from 74.5% to 71.5%, erasing all of the previous period's gains and hitting a recent low. Consistent with the past several periods, no economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events emerged. In the continued absence of fundamental information, this decline lacks a clear news catalyst and appears more like an inertial drift following the prior period's slight rebound, suggesting that while the baseline expectation of holding steady remains dominant, confidence is slowly eroding. The overall landscape has not materially shifted, but the persistent softness in direction is noteworthy.
21. Aug 19, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood held steady at 71.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed interest rates after the September meeting remaining stable during a continued information vacuum.; Judgment on the Fed's September rate decision came to a complete halt this period, with the likelihood of no change frozen at 71.5%. Consistent with several prior cycles, no economic data releases, policy speeches, or relevant events emerged, leaving the fundamental information vacuum intact. With no new catalysts whatsoever, the prior mild downward drift has paused, and the baseline expectation has entered a relatively stable wait-and-see phase. The overall picture remains unchanged—holding steady is still the dominant view, but it is driven by a total absence of news rather than any positive signal.
22. Aug 20, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged up to 72.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting firming slightly amid a continued news vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision extended its quiet streak this period, with the likelihood of no change ticking up from 71.5% to 72.5%. Consistent with prior cycles, no economic data releases, policy speeches, or relevant events surfaced, leaving the fundamental information vacuum intact. In the absence of any new catalysts, this slight firming appears less a response to positive signals and more a natural consolidation of the baseline expectation after earlier mild downward pressures faded. The overall picture remains unchanged—standing pat is still the dominant read—but the driver is not fresh evidence; it is the complete silence on the news front.
23. Aug 21, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood fell to 70.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting softening slightly amid a continued news vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision continued its quiet trend this period, with the likelihood of no change slipping slightly from 72.5% to 70.5%. As in several prior periods, no economic data releases, policy speeches, or related events emerged, leaving the fundamental information vacuum intact. In the absence of any new catalysts, this minor softening does not stem from negative signals but rather appears to be a natural loosening of the baseline expectation after the previous mild upward pressure faded. The overall landscape remains unchanged—holding steady is still the dominant read—but that read is driven not by fresh evidence but by the complete silence on the news front.
24. Aug 22, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood fell further to 68.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting continuing to soften slightly amid a persistent news vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision continued its quiet trend this period, with the likelihood of no change easing further from 70.5% to 68.5%. Consistent with several prior periods, no economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events emerged, leaving the fundamental information vacuum intact. In the absence of any new catalysts, this slight softening does not stem from negative signals but rather appears to be a natural loosening of the baseline expectation after earlier mild upward pressure faded. The overall landscape remains substantively unchanged—holding steady is still the prevailing view—but what drives this judgment is not new evidence, but the complete silence on the news front.
25. Aug 23, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood held steady at 68.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting completely stalled amid a continued news vacuum.; Judgment on the Fed's September rate decision came to a complete standstill this period, with the likelihood of no change frozen at 68.5%. For several consecutive periods now, there have been no economic data releases, policy speeches, or related events—the fundamental information vacuum persists. Unlike the previous period, which saw a slight natural softening in the absence of catalysts, even that drift has now disappeared, leaving expectations entirely immobilized. The overall picture remains substantively unchanged: holding rates steady is still the dominant view, but that view rests entirely on the silence of the news flow, with no fresh support whatsoever.
26. Aug 24, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged down to 67.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting continuing to drift slightly lower amid a persistent news vacuum.; Judgment on the Fed's September rate decision remained in a holding pattern this period, with the likelihood of no change slipping slightly from 68.5% to 67.5%. This marks yet another period without any economic data releases, policy speeches, or relevant events—the information vacuum persists. Unlike the previous period when expectations were completely frozen, this period saw a roughly 1 percentage point drift, though the move lacks any specific catalyst and appears to be a natural erosion of conviction during a prolonged news drought. "No change" remains the dominant expectation, but the evidentiary basis for this judgment has not been strengthened in any way.
27. Aug 25, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood fell further to 65.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting continuing to drift lower amid a persistent news vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision continued its quiet trend this period, with the likelihood of no change slipping further from 67.5% to 65.5%. For multiple consecutive periods, there have been no economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events, and the fundamental information vacuum persists. Compared to the roughly 1 percentage point drift last period, this period saw a 2 percentage point decline, but this movement similarly lacks any specific catalyst and appears more like a natural drift in judgment amid a prolonged absence of news. 'No change' remains the dominant expectation, but the evidentiary basis for this view has not been strengthened in any way.
28. Aug 26, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged up to 67.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting seeing a slight repair amid a persistent news vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision continued its quiet trend this period, with the likelihood of no change rebounding from 65.5% to 67.5%. This marks yet another period without any economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events, extending the fundamental information vacuum. Compared to the 2-percentage-point decline last period, this period saw a 2-point rebound, but the move similarly lacks any specific catalyst and appears to be natural drift in judgment during a prolonged news drought. "No change" remains the prevailing expectation, but the evidence base supporting this view has not been strengthened in any way.
29. Aug 27, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood held steady at 67.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting stalling in place amid a complete news vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision came to a complete standstill this period, with the likelihood of no change frozen at 67.5%. This marks yet another cycle without any economic data releases, policy speeches, or related events—the fundamental information vacuum persists. Unlike the previous period's slight 2-percentage-point rebound, even that catalyst-free drift has now vanished, leaving the entire judgment window utterly stagnant. With no new information to process, 'no change' remains the dominant expectation, though the evidentiary basis for this view has neither strengthened nor weakened.
30. Aug 28, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged up to 68.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting continuing to firm slightly amid a persistent news vacuum.; The judgment on the Fed's September rate decision extended its quiet streak this period, with the likelihood of no change ticking up from 67.5% to 68.5%. The fundamental information vacuum persisted for yet another cycle, with no economic data releases, policy official remarks, or related events surfacing. Unlike the previous period's complete standstill, this cycle saw a one-percentage-point natural drift upward—a micro-adjustment that reflects the slow erosion of uncertainty as time passes, rather than any substantive signal. With the September meeting drawing closer and no new information to disrupt the picture, the expectation of a hold is becoming increasingly entrenched.
31. Aug 28, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood fell sharply to 59.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting weakening notably in the absence of new information.; This period saw a sharp reversal in the judgment on the Fed's September rate decision, with the likelihood of no change plunging from 68.5% to 59.5%, erasing all the gains accumulated over multiple prior periods. The nearly 9-percentage-point drop occurred against a backdrop of complete news vacuum, with no economic data releases, policy official speeches, or related events. Unlike the previous period's catalyst-free drift upward, this significant pullback suggests that as the meeting draws nearer and fundamental information remains absent, the previously firm expectation of a hold was built on less solid ground than it appeared, and uncertainty is regrouping.
32. Aug 28, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood fell further to 49.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting dropping below the halfway mark amid a continued information vacuum.; During this period, the likelihood of the Fed holding rates steady after the September meeting extended its decline, falling another 10 percentage points to 49.5%, completely erasing all earlier gains. Similar to the previous period, this adjustment occurred in a vacuum with no new economic data, policy signals, or related events to drive it. Two consecutive periods of sharp declines amid an information void suggest that as the September meeting window approaches, confidence in the 'no change' baseline scenario is rapidly unraveling, with uncertainty replacing the previously stable expectation as the dominant sentiment.
33. Aug 29, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rebounded to 55.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting recovering amid a continued information vacuum.; The likelihood of the Fed holding rates steady after the September meeting reversed its previous decline this period, climbing 6 percentage points to 55.5% and reclaiming the majority threshold. Consistent with the prior two periods, this rebound occurred in a vacuum devoid of any new economic data, policy signals, or relevant events. After two consecutive periods of sharp declines without news support, this period's reversal suggests expectations around the September policy path are highly unstable; in the absence of substantive information, assessments of the baseline scenario are prone to two-way swings.
34. Aug 30, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood fell to 51.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting coming under renewed pressure amid a continued information vacuum, narrowing its edge.; The likelihood of no change in Fed rates after the September meeting failed to hold onto the previous period's rebound, falling 4 percentage points to 51.5%, barely above the halfway mark. Consistent with the past several periods, this pullback occurred in a vacuum devoid of any new economic data, policy signals, or relevant events. Three consecutive periods of sharp two-way swings without any news support suggest that expectations around the September meeting's policy path are highly unstable, with assessments of the baseline scenario prone to repeated reversals in the absence of substantive guidance.
35. Aug 31, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood plunged to 44.5%, with expectations for no change in Fed rates after the September meeting losing all advantage and shifting to a clear disadvantage amid a continued information vacuum.; During this period, the likelihood of no change in Fed rates after the September meeting extended and accelerated its previous downward trend, falling another 7 percentage points to 44.5%, decisively breaching the 50% threshold. Consistent with prior cycles, this significant decline occurred in a vacuum devoid of any new economic data, policy signals, or relevant events. Four consecutive cycles of large, directional swings without news support suggest that expectations around the September policy path have shifted from oscillation to a downward momentum, with the baseline scenario being steadily sold off in the absence of substantive guidance.