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US ends Iran blockade by Aug 9?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?
Closing recap
Across 3 public assessments, the state moved from “Current likelihood remains very low (~5.5%), unchanged” to “Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal”. One development: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have maintained their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February, insisting on US…. Final assessment: No new events emerged during this period, leaving the situation completely stalled. With no positive signals that could prompt the US to announce an end to the blockade, and the hostile conditions that previously collaps…
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? 0%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal.
Final result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?Closed
No new events emerged during this period, leaving the situation completely stalled. With no positive signals that could prompt the US to announce an end to the blockade, and the hostile conditions that previously collapsed the likelihood still in place, the current assessment sees no room for realization.
Key developments
- No relevant events occurred during this period; the situation is in an information vacuum.
How we read it
No new evidence events occurred in this period; the information environment is completely static.
The previous judgment had already pushed the likelihood to near zero due to Iran's ongoing blockade and tanker attacks, and there is currently no signal to reverse this trend.
The baseline likelihood has fallen from 0.3% to 0.0%, consistent with the current stalled state of no events and no progress.
Earlier updates
- — Current likelihood remains very low (~5.5%), unchanged.; During this period, US sanctions against Iran continued, with no signal of any blockade being lifted. In late July, the Treasury Department announced new sanctions on entities across multiple countries for their involvement with Iran's Mahan Air and IRGC networks. Secretary Bessent's statement emphasized the goal of disrupting Iranian military financial networks. This event runs entirely counter to the prospect of announcing an end to the blockade, reinforcing the current very low likelihood. With no evidence supporting a lifting of the blockade and existing actions hardening the adversarial posture, the likelihood remains unchanged.
- — Current likelihood has dropped to near zero (~0.3%), a significant decline.; The assessed likelihood collapsed further from an already very low level this period. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, coupled with the latest attack on a UAE tanker, has completely eliminated any near-term possibility of the US announcing an end to the blockade. Iran has explicitly tied the strait's reopening to US concessions, including ending aggression and lifting sanctions, which the US opposes. This sharp escalation runs entirely counter to the outcome in question, driving the current likelihood to near zero.
- — Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal.; No new events emerged during this period, leaving the situation completely stalled. With no positive signals that could prompt the US to announce an end to the blockade, and the hostile conditions that previously collapsed the likelihood still in place, the current assessment sees no room for realization.