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Fed raises rates at Sept 2026 FOMC meeting?
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its September 2026 FOMC meeting?
Closing recap
Across 7 public assessments, the state moved from “Markets strongly expect the Fed to raise rates at this week's September FOMC meeting, with multiple indicators showing a…” to “The 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is a settled fact, with market attention shifting to the subsequent ra…”. One development: The Fed announced a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, its first increase in 2026. Final assessment: Latest reports confirm the Fed unanimously decided on a 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, raising the benchmark rate to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first increase in three years. All three maj…
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows Rate hike by October meeting 100%, Rate hike by September meeting 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Reports cited by the final assessment
- 美联储加息25个基点生效，美股收盘下跌
On September 17, the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike took effect, leading to a decline in US stock markets on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average preliminarily closed down 1.2%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.01%. Among individual stocks, Intel (INTC.O) rose 4% and SpaceX (SPCX.O) gained 5%, while Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Boeing (BA.N) each declined nearly 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.55%, with iQIYI (IQ.O) rising 8% and Alibaba (BABA.N) falling 2%. The report attributes the market downturn directly to the Fed's rate hike taking effect.
- 美联储确认加息25个基点后，美股收盘下跌
On September 17, the Federal Reserve implemented a widely anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate hike, leading to a decline in U.S. equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.01%. Among individual stocks, Intel (INTC.O) rose 4% and SpaceX (SPCX.O) gained 5%, while Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Boeing (BA.N) each dropped nearly 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.55%, with iQIYI (IQ.O) up 8% and Alibaba (BABA.N) down 2%. The report attributes the market movements to the Fed's rate hike decision.
- 美联储三年来首次加息；美股收盘下跌
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, with Warsh reiterating that inflation remains too high and has persisted for too long. All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21%, hitting its lowest closing level since mid-June; the S&P 500 dropped 0.44%; and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.01%. Cryptocurrency-related stocks broadly declined, with Circle falling more than 6%, Robinhood dropping over 5%, Coinbase declining more than 4%, Bitmine slipping over 3%, and Strategy falling more than 2%. In contrast, SpaceX shares rose more than 5% as Elon Musk once again signaled a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX.
Final result
The 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is a settled fact, with market attention shifting to the subsequent rate path for the rest of the year.
Final result
Rate hike by October meetingClosed
Rate hike by September meetingClosed
Latest reports confirm the Fed unanimously decided on a 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, raising the benchmark rate to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first increase in three years. All three major US stock indices closed lower after the decision took effect, in line with market expectations. The dot plot shows a vast majority of officials anticipate further hikes this year, cementing a hawkish policy stance. Baseline likelihoods for rate hikes at both the September and October meetings have reached 100%, indicating the market has fully absorbed the outcome. With the decision now a settled fact and consistent with the prior overwhelming market consensus, no additional news evidence adjustment is warranted.
Key developments
- The Fed unanimously decided on a 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, raising the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%.
- The dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials anticipate at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026.
- All three major US stock indices closed lower after the rate hike took effect, with the Dow falling 1.2%.
How we read it
Multiple reports consistently confirm the Fed voted to raise rates by 25 bp at the September FOMC meeting, and the decision has officially taken effect.
The baseline likelihood for a September rate hike has reached 100%, perfectly aligning with the confirmed fact, leaving no uncertainty.
Forward-looking information such as the dot plot indicates room for further hikes this year, explaining why the baseline likelihood for an October hike also remains at a high of 100%.
Earlier updates
- — Markets strongly expect the Fed to raise rates at this week's September FOMC meeting, with multiple indicators showing a probability exceeding 90%.; As the Fed's September FOMC meeting begins this week, a flood of direct news reports indicates a strong market consensus for a rate hike. From the CME FedWatch tool to major bank analyses and trader pricing, the probability of a hike is widely cited between 90% and 95%. This expectation is underpinned by inflation pressures from rising oil prices and climbing 10-year Treasury yields. The baseline likelihood of 88.5% is broadly consistent with the overwhelming evidence presented in the news, so no additional news evidence adjustment is necessary.
- — Market expectations for a Fed rate hike at the September FOMC meeting are near-unanimous, with bond trader confidence at historically extreme levels.; Ahead of the September FOMC meeting, new direct news reports have further solidified rate hike expectations. One report notes that bond traders' conviction in a Wednesday hike is at a level that hasn't been wrong in decades, with analysts warning that holding rates steady would be almost unprecedented. Another report mentions growing certainty of a rate increase, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2007. The baseline likelihood for a September hike has risen to 89.5%, closely aligning with the overwhelming news evidence, so no additional news evidence adjustment is warranted.
- — Despite a senior White House adviser publicly opposing a rate hike, market expectations for a Fed rate hike at the September FOMC meeting remain extremely solid, with the baseline likelihood edging lower but staying elevated.; Hours before the FOMC decision, new direct news continued to reinforce rate hike expectations, though a dissenting voice emerged from the White House. Multiple reports cited CME FedWatch data showing a 92.4% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September. Concurrently, bond traders are betting on a hike at historically extreme levels, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2007. However, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Waller explicitly stated that a Fed rate hike would be a mistake, adding a note of uncertainty to the near-unanimous market consensus. The baseline likelihood for a September hike dipped slightly from 89.5% to 86%, but the news evidence remains overwhelmingly in favor of a hike, so no additional news evidence adjustment is warranted.
- — The Fed announced a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations.; The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike on September 17, its first increase of 2026, directly resolving the tracked question. The latest dot plot shows that an overwhelming majority of officials anticipate further rate increases this year, signaling a hawkish shift in the policy outlook. The baseline likelihood for a September hike has surged to 99.95%, with the October meeting probability reaching the same level, reflecting the market's full absorption of the decision. As the outcome is now settled and consistent with prior overwhelming expectations, no additional news evidence adjustment is necessary.
- — The Fed implemented a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, shifting market focus to the future rate path.; On September 17, the Fed's 25-basis-point rate hike took effect, sending all three major US stock indices lower and marking the first rate increase of 2026. The latest dot plot showed an overwhelming majority of officials expect further hikes this year, signaling a decisive hawkish pivot. Baseline likelihoods for a September hike remain at 99.95%, with the October meeting probability at an equally elevated level, indicating the market has fully absorbed the decision. As the outcome is now settled and aligns with the prior overwhelming market consensus, no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
- — The 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is a done deal, shifting market focus entirely to the October and subsequent rate path.; On September 17, the Fed's 25-basis-point rate hike took effect, sending all three major US stock indices lower and marking the first rate increase of 2026. The latest dot plot showed an overwhelming majority of officials projecting further hikes this year, confirming a decisive hawkish pivot. Baseline likelihoods for a September hike held at 99.95%, with the October meeting probability at an equally elevated level, indicating the market has fully priced in the outcome. With the decision settled and aligned with prior overwhelming expectations, no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
- — The 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is a settled fact, with market attention shifting to the subsequent rate path for the rest of the year.; Latest reports confirm the Fed unanimously decided on a 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, raising the benchmark rate to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first increase in three years. All three major US stock indices closed lower after the decision took effect, in line with market expectations. The dot plot shows a vast majority of officials anticipate further hikes this year, cementing a hawkish policy stance. Baseline likelihoods for rate hikes at both the September and October meetings have reached 100%, indicating the market has fully absorbed the outcome. With the decision now a settled fact and consistent with the prior overwhelming market consensus, no additional news evidence adjustment is warranted.