US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?

Earlier updates

1. Jul 29, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a very low 7.5% probability of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026, with no change during this period.; Evidence from this period shows the US-Iran conflict is ongoing and even escalating, contradicting any expectation of an announced end to the blockade. Iran-backed forces launched attacks on Saudi Arabia, while US and Israeli leaders met to coordinate military strategy against Iran. These developments reinforce the status quo, explaining why current likelihood remained static at a low 7.5%.
2. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026, fell from 7.5% to 3.2%, a drop of 4.4 percentage points.; Evidence this period shows a sharp escalation in US-Iran military confrontation, directly driving a significant drop in current likelihood. The US and Saudi Arabia conducted joint airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, and Iran's IRGC retaliated by attacking Jordan. These events indicate the conflict is expanding, not de-escalating, which runs counter to the preconditions for announcing an end to the blockade. the synthesized read responded by likelihood the probability down from 7.5% to 3.2%, reflecting a minimal likelihood of the event occurring before the deadline.
3. Jul 31, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026, fell from 3.2% to 1.8%, a drop of 1.4 percentage points, making it extremely unlikely.; Evidence in this period further confirms the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict, driving current likelihood even lower. President Trump explicitly rejected Iran's peace framework counterproposal, signaling a diplomatic failure. Simultaneously, an attack attributed to Iran or its proxies struck a US-owned LNG vessel at an Egyptian port, indicating the conflict is spreading regionally. These events run counter to the diplomatic breakthrough needed to announce an end to the blockade, leading the synthesized read to further reduce the already slim probability to 1.8%.
4. Aug 1, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026, has fallen further from 1.8% to 0.5%, with the event window now closed and the likelihood effectively at zero.; With the July 31, 2026 deadline now passed, the time window for this tracked question has officially closed. No evidence events indicating an end to the blockade emerged during this period, leading the synthesized read to complete its final clearing, with the probability plummeting from 1.8% to 0.5%. This price movement was driven purely by the expiration of time, confirming the previous judgment's conclusion that the outcome was extremely unlikely.
5. Aug 1, 2026 UTC — The event window closed on July 31, 2026, with current likelihood at zero and no US announcement ending the Iranian blockade.; This tracking window covers the initial hours after the July 31, 2026 deadline. No reports emerged of a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade, and the event window is now formally closed. current likelihood completed its final clearing, dropping from 0.5% to 0.0%, confirming the event did not occur within the specified timeframe.