RBA raises rates by 25 bps at Sept 2026 meeting?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Aug 27, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 32%, no new developments; No new events directly relevant to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase remains around 32%, unchanged from the start of the window. With no fresh economic data, central bank commentary, or external shocks, the basis for assessment is unchanged.
2. Aug 27, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 37%, no new developments; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25 basis point increase rose from 32% to around 37%, but this movement lacks support from new economic data, central bank official remarks, or significant external shocks. The analytical basis remains unchanged.
3. Aug 27, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 35.5%, no new developments; No new events related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase edged down from around 36.6% to 35.5%, a move of just 1.1 percentage points, with no new economic data, central bank commentary, or major external shocks to support it. The basis for assessment remains materially unchanged.
4. Aug 28, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 38.3%, no new developments; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase rose from around 35.5% to 38.3%, a shift of 2.8 percentage points. In the absence of new economic data, central bank commentary, or major external shocks, this movement lacks a clear news-driven catalyst, leaving the assessment basis materially unchanged.
5. Aug 29, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 38.4%, no material change; Only one event appeared during this monitoring period, a social protest unrelated to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike edged up from 38.3% to 38.4%, a negligible shift of 0.1 percentage points. The Sydney Marathon boycott falls within the realm of sports and social activism, carrying no economic data, monetary policy signals, or central bank commentary. It exerts no identifiable influence on rate expectations. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period.
6. Aug 30, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 33.7%, no new events, reading drifted lower; No economic data, policy signals, or RBA official remarks relevant to the interest rate decision appeared during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase fell from 38.4% to 33.7%, a decline of 4.7 percentage points. With no new evidence events, the move primarily reflects a reassessment of existing information rather than any fresh development. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors supporting a rate hike.
7. Aug 31, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 35.5%, no new events, reading edged up slightly; No economic data, policy signals, or official remarks related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision appeared during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase edged up from 33.7% to 35.5%, a rise of 1.8 percentage points. With no new evidence events, the move lacks a clear information driver and appears to be a narrow fluctuation within the existing information set. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors strengthening or weakening the case for a rate hike.
8. Sep 1, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 38.9%, no new events, reading continued to rise; No economic data, policy signals, or official remarks directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase rose further from 35.5% to 38.9%, up 3.4 percentage points. In the absence of new evidence events, this movement lacks a clear information driver and appears to reflect inertial fluctuation within existing information. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors strengthening or weakening the case for a rate hike.
9. Sep 2, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 50.7%, no new events, reading rose sharply; No economic data, policy signals, or official remarks directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase rose sharply from 38.9% to 50.7%, an increase of 11.8 percentage points. In the absence of any new evidence events, this notable movement lacks a clear information driver and appears to reflect inertial fluctuation or noise within existing information. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors supporting or weakening the rate-hike expectation.
10. Sep 2, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 59.2%, no new events, reading continued to rise; No new evidence related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase rose further from 50.7% to 59.2%, an increase of 8.5 percentage points. Two consecutive periods of significant movement without any new information suggest the current reading reflects inertial reassessment of existing information rather than changes driven by substantive policy signals or economic data. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors supporting or weakening the rate-hike expectation.
11. Sep 2, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 53%, no new events, reading fell; No new evidence related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase fell from 59.2% to 53%, a decline of 6.2 percentage points. Three consecutive monitoring periods have now seen notable swings without any new information entering the picture, suggesting the current reading reflects inertial reassessment of existing information rather than substantive policy signals or economic data. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors supporting or weakening the case for a rate hike.
12. Sep 2, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 49%, no new events, reading continues to fall; No new evidence related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase fell further from 53% to approximately 49%, a decline of about 4 percentage points. Over four consecutive monitoring periods without any new information, the cumulative drop has exceeded 10 percentage points. The reading has now fallen below the 50% threshold, suggesting that in the absence of supportive signals, the reassessment of existing information is tilting toward no rate hike. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors supporting or weakening the case for a rate increase.
13. Sep 3, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 66%, no new events, reading rebounds sharply; No new evidence related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. However, the current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase rebounded sharply from around 49% to approximately 66%, a rise of about 17 percentage points, completely reversing the downward trend of the previous four monitoring periods. Such a significant recovery in the absence of any new information suggests that existing information is being reassessed, providing renewed support for a rate hike. The basis for judgment remains consistent with the previous period, but the directional assessment has shifted from leaning against a hike to leaning in favor of one.
14. Sep 3, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 60%, no new events, reading falls back; No new evidence related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase fell from around 66% to roughly 60%, a decline of about 6.5 percentage points, partially reversing the sharp rebound seen in the previous period. With no fresh information entering the picture, the support that existing data provided for rate-hike expectations has weakened somewhat. The analytical basis remains unchanged, but the directional signal is tilting toward neutral.
15. Sep 4, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 57%, no new events, reading continues to edge lower; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase fell further from around 60% to roughly 57%, a decline of about 2.5 percentage points, extending the cooling trend seen in the prior window. With two consecutive periods now lacking fresh information, the previously accumulated expectation of a rate hike continues to erode, and the analytical basis remains entirely unchanged.
16. Sep 5, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 57%, no new events, reading continues to edge lower; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase edged down from roughly 57.15% to about 56.95%, a decline of just 0.2 percentage points, extending the cooling trend seen previously. With no fresh information entering the picture across multiple consecutive monitoring windows, the previously accumulated expectation of a rate hike continues to loosen, and the analytical basis remains unchanged in any substantive way.
17. Sep 6, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 58%, no new events, reading edges slightly higher; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase rebounded from roughly 56.95% to 58.35%, a rise of 1.4 percentage points. With no fresh information injected across multiple consecutive monitoring windows, this modest bounce appears more like a technical adjustment than a fundamentals-driven reassessment. The analytical basis remains unchanged.
18. Sep 7, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 59%, no new events, reading ticks slightly higher; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase edged up from roughly 58.35% to about 58.8%, a mere 0.4 percentage point move. With multiple consecutive windows lacking fresh information, this tiny drift likely reflects ongoing digestion of existing information rather than any directional signal. The basis for assessment remains unchanged.
19. Sep 8, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 58%, no new events, reading edges slightly lower; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase edged down from roughly 58.8% to about 58.45%, a decline of roughly 0.3 percentage points. With multiple consecutive monitoring windows lacking substantive new information, this minor fluctuation likely reflects the ongoing digestion of existing information rather than any shift in directional signals. The basis for the assessment remains unchanged.
20. Sep 9, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 66%, no new events, baseline reading surged; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. However, the current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase jumped sharply from roughly 58.5% to around 66%, a rise of 7.5 percentage points. In the absence of fresh information, this significant move suggests the underlying assessment is being reappraised, though the driver remains unclear. With no traceable evidence events, it is impossible to confirm whether the uptick stems from a reinterpretation of the macro backdrop or other external factors.
21. Sep 9, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 72%, no new events, baseline reading continued to climb; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase rose further from around 66% to approximately 71.7%, a gain of 5.7 percentage points. With no new information injected across two consecutive monitoring windows, this sustained upward movement suggests the analytical foundation is being reassessed, though the driver remains unclear. Without traceable evidence events, it is impossible to confirm whether this shift stems from a reinterpretation of the macro backdrop or other external factors.
22. Sep 10, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 80%, no new events, baseline reading surged significantly; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase climbed further from around 72% to approximately 80%, a rise of 8.5 percentage points. With no new information injected across three consecutive monitoring windows, this sustained and accelerating upward movement suggests the assessment basis is being reassessed, though the drivers remain unclear. Without traceable evidence events, it is impossible to confirm whether this shift stems from a reinterpretation of the macro backdrop or other external factors.
23. Sep 11, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood around 82%, no relevant events, baseline reading edged up slightly; The only event captured in this monitoring period was a sports news item entirely unrelated to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate increase rose slightly from around 80% to approximately 82%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points. With no substantive economic information across multiple consecutive monitoring windows, this modest upward drift continues the prior trend, though the drivers remain opaque. Without traceable economic or policy evidence, it is impossible to confirm whether this movement reflects an ongoing reassessment of the macro backdrop or other external factors.
24. Sep 12, 2026 UTC — No relevant news events; market reference price continued to climb to 86.6%; No news events relevant to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision appeared during this monitoring period. The public baseline reference price for a 25-basis-point increase rose further from approximately 82.3% to 86.6%, a gain of 4.3 percentage points. This upward drift extends the trend observed over several consecutive windows that lacked substantive economic or policy information, though the drivers remain unclear. Without traceable evidence, it is impossible to determine whether the move reflects a continued reassessment of the macro backdrop or other external factors.
25. Sep 13, 2026 UTC — No relevant news events; market reference price edged down to 83.9%; No news events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The public baseline reference price for a 25-basis-point increase retreated to 83.9% from the previous window's 86.6%, a decline of 2.7 percentage points. Amid a continued absence of substantive economic or policy information, this modest pullback reversed the upward trend seen over several prior windows, though the driver remains unclear. Without traceable evidence, it is impossible to determine whether the move reflects a reassessment of the macro backdrop or other external factors.
26. Sep 13, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; market reference price rebounded to 88.9%; No news events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The public baseline reference price for a 25-basis-point increase rebounded to 88.9% from 83.9% in the previous window, a 5-percentage-point gain that largely erased the prior decline. With no traceable news or policy signals, this price movement lacks a clear news-driven catalyst, and its underlying rationale cannot be inferred from the available information.
27. Sep 14, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; market reference price slightly retreated to 85.7%; No news events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The public baseline reference price shows the baseline likelihood of a '25 bps increase' retreated from 88.9% in the previous window to 85.7%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points, partially giving back earlier gains. In the absence of traceable news or policy signals, this price movement lacks a clear news-driven catalyst, and its underlying logic cannot be inferred from available information.
28. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; judgment maintained; No news events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The baseline likelihood edged down from 85.7% to 84.4%, a decline of 1.3 percentage points, extending the mild pullback seen in the previous window. In the absence of traceable news or policy signals, this price movement lacks a clear news-driven catalyst, and the reasoning behind it cannot be inferred from available information.
29. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; judgment maintained; No news events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The baseline likelihood edged up from 84.4% to 85.3%, a 0.9 percentage-point move within a narrow range. In the absence of traceable news or policy signals, this price fluctuation lacks a clear news-driven catalyst, and its underlying logic cannot be inferred from available information.
30. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; judgment maintained; No news events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The baseline likelihood rose from 85.3% to 87.85%, a 2.5 percentage point increase, but this movement lacks traceable news or policy signal drivers. With no new evidence to assess, the previous judgment of no new evidence is maintained.
31. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — No material news; judgment maintained; Only one event with a high signal score but empty title and summary was captured during this monitoring period, from which no substantive information related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision can be extracted. The baseline likelihood edged up from 87.85% to 89.3%, a 1.5 percentage point increase, but this movement lacks any identifiable news or policy signal. With no new valid evidence, the previous judgment of no new evidence is maintained.
32. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; judgment maintained; No news events related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September interest rate decision were captured during this monitoring period. The baseline likelihood rose from 89.3% to 92.35%, an increase of about 3 percentage points, but this movement lacks any identifiable news or policy signal to drive it. With no new valid evidence, the previous judgment of no new evidence is maintained.
33. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; judgment maintained; No news events related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September interest rate decision were captured during this monitoring period. The baseline likelihood edged up from 92.35% to 92.9%, a move of less than one percentage point with no identifiable news or policy signal behind it. With no new material evidence, the previous judgment of no new evidence is maintained.
34. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; judgment maintained; No news events related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision were captured during this monitoring period. The baseline likelihood rose from 92.9% to 94.6%, a shift of 1.7 percentage points, but this movement lacks an identifiable news or policy signal driver. With no new substantive evidence, the previous judgment of no new evidence is maintained.
35. Sep 22, 2026 UTC — No directly relevant evidence; judgment maintained; The sole event captured this period concerns South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's planned bilateral summit with Australian leaders during his US visit, but the reporting focuses on diplomacy and investment, with no mention of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy. The baseline likelihood held steady at 94.6%. With no news signal directly relevant to the September rate decision, the previous judgment of no new evidence is maintained.
36. Sep 23, 2026 UTC — New evidence strongly supports a rate hike, consistent with the current baseline; A highly relevant piece of direct evidence was captured this period. Multiple major banks and money markets are pricing a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its September meeting. RBA Governor Bullock also stated that upside inflation risks "appear to be materializing." This news signal aligns with the 94.6% baseline likelihood in both direction and strength, so the baseline judgment is maintained without an additional adjustment.
37. Sep 24, 2026 UTC — New evidence is mixed but insufficient to alter rate hike expectations; Four events were captured this period, but none directly challenge the market's strong expectation of a rate hike. The most relevant economic data point was Australia's August unemployment rate, which unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, exceeding the 4.5% forecast, even as job creation far surpassed estimates. At first glance, this could weaken the case for tightening, but the robust employment growth and rising participation rate suggest the labor market remains tight, making it unlikely to deter the RBA from hiking. Other events, including an AI security incident and a commercial deal, are unrelated to monetary policy. With the baseline likelihood at 94.6% and no clear counter-signal, the existing judgment is maintained.
38. Sep 25, 2026 UTC — New evidence is unrelated to monetary policy; rate hike expectation unchanged; None of the three events captured in this period provide new information that would influence the RBA's September meeting decision. The most relevant economic data—the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% in August—was already fully digested in the previous judgment cycle; its mixed signals (strong job growth alongside a higher jobless rate) failed to shake the market's strong consensus for a rate hike. The remaining two events are a commercial acquisition and geopolitical news, entirely unrelated to monetary policy. With the baseline likelihood steady at 94.6% and no new evidence to warrant an adjustment, the judgment is maintained.
39. Sep 26, 2026 UTC — New evidence is unrelated to monetary policy; rate hike expectation unchanged; The sole new event this period is the news of an OpenAI AI agent breaching Australia's Medicare system. This incident concerns cybersecurity and government system vulnerabilities, and has no bearing whatsoever on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. The baseline likelihood remains at 94.6%, and no new evidence supports any adjustment. As established in the previous judgment period, recent economic data has already been fully absorbed by the market, and this period's event is entirely irrelevant to monetary policy, so the judgment is maintained.
40. Sep 27, 2026 UTC — No new evidence; rate hike expectation unchanged; No new events related to Australian monetary policy emerged during this judgment period. The baseline likelihood remains at 94.6%, unchanged from the previous period. The prior judgment confirmed that recent economic data had been fully absorbed by the market, and the absence of any new information that could influence the rate decision means the assessment is maintained.
41. Oct 10, 2026 UTC — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.