Question trackingTracking
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 meeting?
Current read
Current likelihood around 35.5%, no new events, reading edged up slightly
Where the answer stands
- increase 25 bps
No economic data, policy signals, or official remarks related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision appeared during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase edged up from 33.7% to 35.5%, a rise of 1.8 percentage points. With no new evidence events, the move lacks a clear information driver and appears to be a narrow fluctuation within the existing information set. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors strengthening or weakening the case for a rate hike.
Key developments
- No new events or data releases related to Australia's interest rate decision during the monitoring period.
How we read it
No evidence events were matched this period; the information environment is identical to the previous period.
The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike rose from 33.7% to 35.5%, a move of only 1.8 percentage points, consistent with a narrow, information-free fluctuation.
Given the absence of new evidence, the previous period's assessment—that no new factors support a rate hike—remains valid.
Earlier updates
- — Current likelihood around 32%, no new developments; No new events directly relevant to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase remains around 32%, unchanged from the start of the window. With no fresh economic data, central bank commentary, or external shocks, the basis for assessment is unchanged.
- — Current likelihood around 37%, no new developments; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25 basis point increase rose from 32% to around 37%, but this movement lacks support from new economic data, central bank official remarks, or significant external shocks. The analytical basis remains unchanged.
- — Current likelihood around 35.5%, no new developments; No new events related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase edged down from around 36.6% to 35.5%, a move of just 1.1 percentage points, with no new economic data, central bank commentary, or major external shocks to support it. The basis for assessment remains materially unchanged.
- — Current likelihood around 38.3%, no new developments; No new events directly related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting interest rate decision emerged during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase rose from around 35.5% to 38.3%, a shift of 2.8 percentage points. In the absence of new economic data, central bank commentary, or major external shocks, this movement lacks a clear news-driven catalyst, leaving the assessment basis materially unchanged.
- — Current likelihood around 38.4%, no material change; Only one event appeared during this monitoring period, a social protest unrelated to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate decision. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike edged up from 38.3% to 38.4%, a negligible shift of 0.1 percentage points. The Sydney Marathon boycott falls within the realm of sports and social activism, carrying no economic data, monetary policy signals, or central bank commentary. It exerts no identifiable influence on rate expectations. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period.
- — Current likelihood around 33.7%, no new events, reading drifted lower; No economic data, policy signals, or RBA official remarks relevant to the interest rate decision appeared during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase fell from 38.4% to 33.7%, a decline of 4.7 percentage points. With no new evidence events, the move primarily reflects a reassessment of existing information rather than any fresh development. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors supporting a rate hike.
- — Current likelihood around 35.5%, no new events, reading edged up slightly; No economic data, policy signals, or official remarks related to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision appeared during this monitoring period. The current likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase edged up from 33.7% to 35.5%, a rise of 1.8 percentage points. With no new evidence events, the move lacks a clear information driver and appears to be a narrow fluctuation within the existing information set. The analytical basis remains unchanged from the previous period, with no new factors strengthening or weakening the case for a rate hike.