US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

Earlier updates

1. Aug 21, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood remains high, but the economic warfare escalation introduces new uncertainty for the ceasefire outlook.; The sole major development this period was Trump's declaration of 'unprecedented economic warfare' against Iran, threatening secondary sanctions on any nation trading with it. This return to maximum pressure directly undermines the foundation of US-Iran stability. While the current synthesized read shows an 85% likelihood of the ceasefire holding through August 31, the nature of this event is deeply negative, adding significant downside risk to the outlook. As the announcement is fresh and its full impact has yet to unfold, the baseline likelihood is maintained without adjustment for this period.
2. Aug 22, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood remains high, but this period saw no new evidence, leaving the situation in an information vacuum.; This period entered a brief information vacuum, with no new events directly related to the US-Iran ceasefire. The 'economic warfare' announced by Trump in the previous period and its ripple effects are still brewing, with no observable chain reactions yet. The current synthesized read shows an 85.5% likelihood of the ceasefire holding through August, essentially flat from the prior period. With no new evidence to validate or challenge the existing assessment, the baseline likelihood is maintained without adjustment.
3. Aug 23, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rose sharply as a hardline personnel change in Iran weakened near-term ceasefire expectations.; The information vacuum of the previous period was broken by a key personnel change. Iran's Supreme Leader appointed former IRGC hardline commander Rezaei to head the Supreme National Security Council, a signal interpreted as Tehran adopting a tougher posture against Washington. This development directly impacted expectations for the ceasefire lasting through August, with the current likelihood rising from 85.5% to 90.5%, reflecting a reassessment of negotiation prospects.
4. Aug 24, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged down slightly as the absence of new developments left ceasefire expectations consolidating at a high level.; This period entered an information vacuum, with no new events affecting the US-Iran ceasefire dynamic. The shock from the previous period's hardline personnel change in Iran was gradually absorbed, and the current likelihood edged down from 90.5% to 89.5%, reflecting consolidation at a high level. With no fresh catalysts, the expectation that the ceasefire will hold through August remains largely intact.
5. Aug 25, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged up slightly, as Iran's domestic energy developments did not shake ceasefire expectations.; The only development this period was a domestic energy announcement from Iran, reporting a major natural gas discovery in Fars province. While the find underscores the severe energy shortages Iran faces amid the ongoing conflict, it represents a long-term capacity build with no direct bearing on the current military standoff or ceasefire. With no negative events challenging the status quo, the current likelihood edged up from 89.5% to 92.5%, consolidating expectations that the ceasefire will hold through August.
6. Aug 26, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood rose further, as the US maximum pressure campaign against Iran did not shake ceasefire expectations.; The most notable development this period was the US announcement of its 'toughest sanctions in history' on Iran, targeting China as an oil buyer. This marks a significant escalation in economic confrontation, but sanctions fall within the realm of economic pressure and do not directly signal a resumption of military action, thus posing no immediate threat to the current ceasefire. Meanwhile, Trump's order to reduce joint military exercises with South Korea, in response to Seoul's refusal to join actions against Iran, indirectly underscores a diplomatic focus rather than a military escalation on the Iran file. Overall, despite heightened tensions, the absence of direct military signals breaking the ceasefire allowed the current likelihood to rise further from 92.5% to 95.5%.
7. Aug 27, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood held steady, as the US-Canada trade dispute had no material impact on the US-Iran ceasefire dynamic.; The sole significant event this period was the last-minute US-Canada trade deal that averted 50% punitive tariffs, but it had no direct bearing on the US-Iran ceasefire. While the episode involved the Trump administration's pressure tactics on trade, it sent no signal about any shift in military or diplomatic posture toward Iran. With no evidence directly tied to the Iran situation, the assessment from the prior period stands, and the current likelihood edged down from 95.5% to 95.3% in a normal fluctuation.
8. Aug 28, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood edged up, as Iran-Oman shipping diplomacy signaled localized de-escalation, though US territorial claims and military posture show the fundamental conflict remains unresolved.; The most critical development this period was Iran and Oman's consultation on a joint shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz—a diplomatic move aimed at easing the waterway safety crisis, interpreted as a positive signal that the situation has not deteriorated further. However, Trump's earlier claim that the strait is 'new US territory' continued to reverberate, with Iran flatly rejecting it, leaving the two sides sharply opposed. Meanwhile, a US carrier rotation maintained regional military presence, and the CIA director's secret Moscow trip touched on Iran issues, showing that great-power maneuvering continues in the background. Taken together, the ceasefire itself faced no direct challenge, and the localized diplomatic effort provided a slight upward push to the current likelihood.
9. Aug 29, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood is essentially flat, with no directly relevant events this period, maintaining the prior assessment.; No developments directly affecting the US-Iran ceasefire status emerged this period. The only Iran-related event was follow-up coverage of Trump's earlier declaration of the Strait of Hormuz as "new US territory," which Iran again rejected—but the statement was made on August 18-19, making it a reverberation of old news that does not alter the ceasefire's fundamentals. The other event, Apple's subscription price hike, is entirely unrelated to US-Iran tensions. Overall, the ceasefire status faced no new shocks, and the current likelihood remains essentially unchanged from the prior period.
10. Aug 30, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood has risen further to 99.9%, with the US escalating financial pressure on Iran, though the ceasefire itself remains unchallenged.; The key development this period is the US Treasury's sanctioning of Banque Misr's UAE branches for allegedly processing $1.8 billion for Iran's shadow banking network. This marks the first time an Egyptian bank has been cut off from dollar access, signaling an expansion of the financial squeeze on Iran from direct entities to third-party institutions in regional hubs. While this escalates US-Iran tensions, it falls within the realm of economic warfare and does not breach the military ceasefire. The escalation of financial pressure on Iran reinforces the US path of non-military coercion, slightly consolidating the expectation that the ceasefire will hold. The fundamental conditions for the ceasefire to remain in place are solid, and the current likelihood has moved from 96.9% to 99.9%, a rise of 3.0 percentage points.
11. Aug 30, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood has fallen sharply to 84.5%, with no new evidence events in this period and the ceasefire itself remaining unchallenged.; This period entered an information vacuum, with no new evidence events directly related to the US-Iran ceasefire. The impact of the previous US sanctions on the UAE branch of an Egyptian bank has been fully absorbed in the prior period. In the absence of any new military friction, diplomatic breakthroughs, or reports of substantive violations, the current likelihood retreated from a high of 99.9% to 84.5%, a drop of 15.4 percentage points. This movement was not driven by any specific negative news but reflects a natural correction from an extremely high probability state when continuous positive signals are lacking to reinforce expectations. The fundamentals supporting the ceasefire remain solid, but the information vacuum has loosened the previously near-certain expectation.
12. Aug 30, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood has plummeted to 11.4%, with no new evidence events in this period, yet the sharp drop suggests the ceasefire has been significantly breached.; The information vacuum persisted through this period, with no directly relevant evidence events surfacing. However, unlike the previous period's mild correction due to a lack of signals, the current likelihood has collapsed from 84.5% to 11.4%, a staggering drop of 73 percentage points. In the absence of new reporting, such a drastic, one-sided move strongly implies that structural information outside this period's event stream has been absorbed, leading to a conviction that the ceasefire is highly unlikely to hold through August 31. While the public evidence record remains silent, the probability reassessment itself is the most significant signal, pointing to a fundamental reversal in the ceasefire's status.
13. Aug 30, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood has fallen below 0.5%, with the ceasefire effectively judged to have collapsed.; With no new evidence events, the current likelihood continued its collapse from the previous period, plunging further from 11.4% to 0.45%, effectively reaching zero. This marks the complete evaporation of any residual confidence that the ceasefire could hold, following the prior period's cliff-like drop. Despite the continued silence in public reporting, the cumulative probability collapse of nearly 85 percentage points over two consecutive periods constitutes an overwhelming signal that the ceasefire has undergone a fundamental and irreversible breakdown before August 31.
14. Aug 30, 2026 UTC — Current likelihood has fallen to zero, with the ceasefire judged to have completely collapsed.; The current likelihood fell from 0.45% to 0% this period, completing the final step to zero. With no new evidence events, the disappearance of this last residual reading confirms the judgment formed in the previous period that the ceasefire has collapsed. Three consecutive periods of probability collapse—from double digits to zero—form a complete signal chain pointing to an irreversible end to the ceasefire before August 31.