Question trackingTracking
Can GOP both-chambers odds rise from 0.15%?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 关注Kalshi、Polymarket等预测市场及Nate Silver等模型对共和党保住两院概率的更新，以及重大事件（如经济数据、中东局势）是否引发概率跳升。
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Tracked questions
Question trackingTracking
Does Bolsonaro's 86.95% win odds ignore legal risks?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
WorldTracking
Why is divided Congress (Dem Senate, GOP House) probability below 1% in 2026?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
FinanceTracking
Clarity Act becomes U.S. law in 2026?
Signed into law in 2026
5.9%
Observation: The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act in a 49-50 vote, leaving the bill stalled.
FinanceTracking
How many 25bp Fed rate cuts in 2026, incl. emergency and December?
Zero rate cuts
Two rate cuts
Three rate cuts
Five rate cuts
Observation: The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, its first hike since 2023, with the dot plot signaling at least one more increase this year.
Resolved questions
FinanceResolved
Parnu vs Nomme Kalju: Does cancellation resolving 'Yes' cause overpricing?
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Probability of home team leading at halftime in Itagui Leones vs Boyaca Patriotas?
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No
WorldResolved
What could break US-Yemen ceasefire despite 93.5% odds?
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US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?
TechnologyResolved
Anthropic no Fable 5.2, 73.5% No—release slowdown?
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Tennis postponed, over 22.5 games at 99.5%—overlooks uncertainty?
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TechnologyResolved
CS2 match priced 99.95% over 2.5 maps, but did it occur?
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Egyptian PL halftime draw 99.95%: cancel resolves 'Yes' divergence?
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Rovereto first set near-100%: 50-50 if incomplete fair?
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WorldResolved
Will US-Iran ceasefire hold beyond Oct 15, 2026?
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Yes
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Table tennis Semrad Petr 99.5%: upset or 50-50 settlement?
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Bodrum over 2.5 goals 99.95%: official result confirmed?
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FinanceResolved
ETH 1h candle 99.95% Up: result confirmed?
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How uncertain is Saint Sinners vs maybe outcome?
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FinanceResolved
Is Bitcoin 5-min TWAP direction a reliable signal?
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Will Chicago record measurable rain on Oct 14, 2026?
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Yes
Question trackingResolved
Will it rain in New Orleans on October 14?
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No
Question trackingResolved
Could the default 'No rain' rule cause divergence from actual precipitation?
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No
Question trackingResolved
Does W35 Birmingham prediction hold after postponement?
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Will Karachi's high reach 39°C on Oct 15?
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No