TechnologyResolved
CS2 match priced 99.95% over 2.5 maps, but did it occur?
The Polymarket market for the CS2 Winners' match between 100 Thieves and Liquid on October 13, 2026, priced 'Over 2.5 maps' at 99.95%—but did the match actually take place as scheduled? If postponement or cancellation triggers a 50-50 resolution, what does that imply for the reliability of prediction markets on esports events?
Closing recap
Across 2 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows Games Total: O/U 2.5 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
Games Total: O/U 2.5Closed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners' match between 100 Thieves and Liquid in the Stake Pulse Beat III Group B, initially scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 9:15 AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against Liquid. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 13, 2026 at 9:15 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely ident
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.