Will Karachi's high reach 39°C on Oct 15?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, public baseline will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is re
2. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 89%.; As of October 14, 2026, the provided weather forecasts indicate that Karachi's maximum temperature on October 15 is expected to be 36°C (source 1), well below the 39°C threshold. Historical weather records show highs between 30-34°C in early October (source 2), further supporting that mid-October temperatures are unlikely to reach 39°C. However, these forecasts and records are not official station measurements (e.g., Jinnah International Airport) for October 15 itself, and forecasts can change, so the possibility of reaching 39°C cannot be entirely ruled out, but current evidence suggests a low likelihood.
3. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 85%.; The available evidence shows that daily maximum temperatures in Karachi in mid-October typically range from 31-34°C (historical records), and a 30-day forecast published on October 9 mentions a maximum of 38°C (on October 21) over the next 30 days, without mentioning 39°C for October 15. The 10-day forecast published on October 13 and the 15-day forecast published on October 12 do not explicitly provide the maximum temperature for October 15. Therefore, these reports do not directly establish that the maximum temperature on October 15 will reach or exceed 39°C, nor do they provide sufficient information to confirm that it will not. The key uncertainty is the actual observation on October 15.
4. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.