Question trackingResolved
Will Chicago record measurable rain on Oct 14, 2026?
Will Chicago record measurable precipitation (≥0.01 inches) on October 14, 2026?
Closing recap
Across 3 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows Will it rain in Chicago, IL on October 14? 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on October 14?Closed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 14, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.
- — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 70%.; A Chicago 10-day weather forecast published on October 6, 2026, shows October 14 as 'cloudy to overcast' with no mention of rain, but this is not an official station record and provides no precipitation amounts. Other evidence concerns Changchun, China, and is irrelevant to Chicago. Thus, the supplied evidence cannot confirm whether Chicago recorded at least 0.01 inches of precipitation on October 14, 2026.
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.