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What trends or uncertainties does Isamaa's 50% chance of winning most seats reflect?

Observation ends Nov 15, 2026 UTC

Watching: 爱沙尼亚各政党在2027年3月7日选举前的民调变化、联盟动态及选举规则调整。

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What political uncertainties does Social Democrats' 50% probability reflect?

2027 Estonian parliamentary election, Social Democratic Party at 50% to win most seats

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Does EKRE's 50% probability reflect voter dissatisfaction and nationalist appeal?

2027 Estonian election, EKRE at 50% to win most seats, considering immigration and nationalism stances

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Does 50% probability for Eesti 200 winning most seats reflect true voter support?

Estonia March 2027 parliamentary election, Eesti 200 at 50% to win most seats, five months before vote

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WorldTracking

Iranian regime falls before 2027?

Before January 1, 2027

Observation: Multiple cargo and container ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards claiming a ship carrying 2,500 containers sank after hitting a mine

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WorldTracking

US invades Iran before 2027?

before 2027

Observation: Multiple cargo and container ships have sunk near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards claiming a ship carrying 2,500 containers sank after hitting a mine

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WorldTracking

Saudi joins Abraham Accords pre-2027?

before 2027

Observation: Houthi missile strikes hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters and sparked a fire, while Saudi Arabia intercepted a missile targeting Riyadh

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WorldTracking

Dems win WI governor 2026?

2026, Wisconsin governor race

Observation: Georgia Senator Ossoff said during a debate he has zero interest in a presidential run and is focused on his Senate re-election, which is unrelated to the Wisconsin governor race.

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WorldTracking

Total ship transits through Strait of Hormuz, Oct 19-25, 2026

2026-10-19–2026-10-25 · ships

Watching: 关注每日船舶通航量报告（如Kpler、Windward）及累计数量是否达到40艘。

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FinanceTracking

Will Fed lower federal funds rate upper bound by Oct and Dec 2026 meetings?

Observation: by Oct 2026 and Dec 2026 meetings; lower upper bound of target range.

Observation: CITIC Securities expects the Fed to hold rates in October and hike 25 bp in December, citing higher-than-expected September CPI and renewed monthly core inflation gains.

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TechnologyTracking

Can AMD Helion's 32,768 cores surpass Nvidia GPU clusters?

Especially for agentic AI workloads

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WorldTracking

Russia strike Kyiv Oct 24 at 18%: two-week shift?

As of October 14, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv on October 24.

Watching: 预测市场概率的更新、俄罗斯军事动向、官方声明或实际袭击事件。

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WorldTracking

Russia strike Kyiv Oct 20 at 16.5%: significant shift?

October 20, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv.

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WorldTracking

Russia strike Kyiv Oct 18 at 13.5%: how will it shift?

As of October 14, 2026, probability Russia launches air or missile strike on Kyiv on October 18.

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TechnologyTracking

Will US federal action fully ban public access to major Chinese AI models by end-2026?

Observation ends Jan 2, 2027 UTC

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TechnologyTracking

Which company ranks first on Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at end of 2026?

As of Dec 31, 2026; Chatbot Arena text model leaderboard.

Observation: Two X polls both show Anthropic leading with ~50% of votes, followed by OpenAI at 22% and Google at 20%

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TechnologyTracking

If US confirms extraterrestrial life by Oct 31, 2026, how would it affect science policy and public perception?

Probability: ~1.25%; deadline: October 31, 2026; condition: US officially confirms extraterrestrial life.

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Question trackingTracking

Warnock's 1.8% chance for 2028 Dem nomination: real shift in primary landscape?

As of October 2026; probability: 1.8%; target: 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

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WorldTracking

In Mall of America plot, what responsibility do social media platforms bear for youth radicalization?

Case: Mall of America terror plot; suspect: 18-year-old allegedly influenced by ISIS online recruitment.

Watching: 后续可能出现的关于社交媒体平台责任的政策讨论或法律诉讼。

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If 'Leave' wins no divisions in Alberta referendum, does it show support decline?

Referendum date: October 19, 2026; condition: 'Leave' fails to win any electoral division.

Watching: 公投结果公布，特别是各选区“离开”选项的得票率和投票率数据。

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WorldTracking

How will international aviation security adapt to non-state threats after Houthi attacks on Saudi airports?

Houthi; missile attacks; Saudi international airports; civil aviation disruption; international aviation security mechanisms; non-state actors; civilian infrastructure

Watching: 国际民航组织、欧盟航空安全局等机构发布新的安全通告或政策调整。

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WorldTracking

2026 midterms: Does 50% probability for Democrats winning 4 Tennessee House seats signal political shift?

2026 midterm elections; Democrats; Tennessee; House seats; exactly 4; 50% probability

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FinanceTracking

How would unexpected Dec cut alter 2027 rate path?

As of Oct 2026; 95.65% no-cut chance

Watching: 关注12月FOMC会议是否降息，以及随后点阵图、经济预测和官员讲话对2027年利率路径的暗示。

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Can GOP both-chambers odds rise from 0.15%?

Three weeks before 2026 midterms, GOP controls both chambers at 0.15%.

Watching: 关注Kalshi、Polymarket等预测市场及Nate Silver等模型对共和党保住两院概率的更新，以及重大事件（如经济数据、中东局势）是否引发概率跳升。

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