During the observation periods defined by the rules, will the Fed lower the upper bound of its federal funds target range by the October 2026 meeting and by the December 2026 meeting?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — The Fed raised rates by 25 bp during the observation window, increasing the upper bound of the target range; no cut occurred.; During this observation period, multiple news sources unanimously reported that the Fed announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, raising the federal funds target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first rate increase since July 2023, directly indicating that the upper bound of the rate range was raised, not lowered. Baseline likelihoods show the market sees a very low probability of a rate cut by the October or December meetings, at 1.45% and 3.5% respectively, which is consistent with the current rate hike. As the news evidence clearly points to a hike, contradicting the cut outcomes, no news evidence adjustment to the baseline likelihoods is warranted.
2. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — The Fed raised rates by 25 bp in September, increasing the upper bound; the probability of a cut before the October or December meetings remains extremely low.; During this observation period, two financial media outlets confirmed the Fed's 25 bp rate hike on September 17, raising the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot showed the median 2026 terminal rate projection was revised up to 4.1%, and Chair Walsh signaled further tightening, directly contradicting any expectation of a rate cut. Baseline likelihoods show the market assigns only a 1.25% and 2.15% probability to a cut before the October and December meetings, respectively, edging slightly lower from the prior period. Since the news evidence clearly points to a hike rather than a cut, and the baseline already reflects this reality, no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
3. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — The Fed raised rates by 25 bp in September; the probability of a cut before the October or December meetings is extremely low, with no news evidence supporting a cut.; During this observation period, news evidence continues to confirm that the Fed raised rates by 25 bp on September 17, increasing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%. A Cailian Press report cited Fed official Schmid's comments confirming the hike as a step toward restoring the 2% inflation target. Bank of America strategists even warned that the market may be underestimating the terminal rate of this hiking cycle, with rates potentially rising above 5%. All direct evidence points to rate increases, the opposite of a cut. Baseline likelihoods show the market sees only a 1.2% and 3.1% probability of a rate cut by the October or December meetings, respectively, with minimal change from the prior period. No news evidence supports a cut, so no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
4. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — The Fed raised rates in September; the probability of a cut before the October or December meetings is extremely low, with no news evidence supporting a cut.; News evidence during this observation period continues to confirm that the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the upper bound of the federal funds target range to 4.00%. A research note from Northeast Securities highlighted that the dot plot shows officials generally expect one more rate hike in 2026, reinforcing the tightening bias. All direct evidence points to rate increases, the opposite of a cut. Baseline likelihoods show the market sees only a 0.95% and 4.15% chance of a cut before the October or December meetings, respectively. These figures changed minimally from the prior period, and no news evidence supports a cut, so no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
5. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — The Fed raised rates in September; the probability of a cut before the October or December meetings is extremely low, with no news evidence supporting a cut.; During this observation period, news evidence continues to confirm that the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari publicly supported the hike and hinted at the need for further increases, reinforcing tightening expectations. All direct evidence points to rate increases, the opposite of a 'cut'. Baseline likelihoods show the market sees only a 0.95% and 3.95% probability of a cut before the October or December meetings, respectively, with minimal change from the prior period. No news evidence supports a cut, so no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
6. Sep 22, 2026 UTC — The Fed raised rates in September; the probability of a cut before the October or December meetings is extremely low, with no news evidence supporting a cut.; During this observation period, news evidence continued to confirm the Fed's 25-basis-point rate hike in September, raising the upper bound of the federal funds target range to 4.00%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that supply shocks could force a painful trade-off between employment and inflation, reinforcing the hawkish rather than dovish narrative. All direct evidence points to rate increases or a sustained tightening bias, directly contradicting expectations of a cut. Baseline likelihoods show the market sees only a 0.95% and 3.90% probability of a rate cut by the October or December meetings, respectively, with minimal change from the prior period. No news evidence supports a cut, so no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
7. Sep 23, 2026 UTC — News evidence confirms the Fed held rates steady in September, not cut them; the probability of a cut before the October or December meetings is extremely low.; The sole direct news evidence in this observation period shows that the Fed decided to hold the lower bound of the federal funds rate at 3.75% at its September 16 meeting, contradicting the previous judgment's assumption of a rate hike. This latest resolution revises the core narrative of the prior period, indicating that monetary policy has entered a pause phase rather than continued tightening. Nonetheless, holding rates steady also does not support the expectation of a 'rate cut,' and direct evidence for a cut before the October or December meetings remains zero. The baseline likelihood shows the market sees only a 0.95% and 3.90% probability of a cut by the October or December meetings, respectively, unchanged from the prior period. With no news evidence supporting a cut, no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
8. Sep 24, 2026 UTC — News evidence continues to reinforce expectations of Fed rate hikes, not cuts; the likelihood of a lower rate ceiling before the October or December meetings is near zero.; During this observation period, multiple reports based on the CME FedWatch Tool showed market expectations for an October rate hike climbing from 54.2% to 69.7%, with the probability of a cumulative 50bp hike by December rising to 54.8%. Meanwhile, a new forecast from Citigroup explicitly predicts the Fed will hold rates steady in both October and December, delaying any rate cuts until 2027. This evidence uniformly points to a maintained or higher rate ceiling, directly contradicting the prospect of a lower upper bound. The baseline likelihoods show a 0.95% chance of a cut by October and 3.90% by December, both extremely low, and no news evidence supports a rate cut, so no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
9. Sep 25, 2026 UTC — News evidence confirms the Fed raised rates in September, increasing the rate ceiling; the likelihood of a rate cut before the October or December meetings remains zero.; During this observation period, the sole direct news report confirmed that the Fed raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, ending the rate-cutting cycle that began in September 2024. This fact directly contradicts the scenario of a lower rate ceiling and further reinforces expectations that rates will be held steady or increased. The baseline likelihoods show a 0.95% probability of a cut by October and 3.90% by December, both at extremely low levels, and no news evidence supports a rate cut, so no news evidence adjustment is warranted.
10. Sep 26, 2026 UTC — News evidence continues to point toward rate hikes or unchanged rates; the likelihood of a rate ceiling cut remains zero.; During this observation period, newly added news reports further solidified the judgment that the Fed will not lower the upper bound of its federal funds target range at the October or December meetings. Multiple reports citing CME FedWatch data showed market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in October as high as 67.5%, with a 32.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged. For the December meeting, the market even priced in a greater than 50% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. Additionally, a Citigroup report predicted the Fed would hold rates steady at both the October and December meetings. All direct news evidence shows no sign of a rate cut, completely contradicting the topic of a 'rate ceiling cut'. The baseline likelihoods show a 0.95% probability of a cut by October and 3.90% by December, both at extremely low levels, and no news evidence supports a cut, so no news evidence adjustment is necessary.
11. Sep 27, 2026 UTC — News evidence continues to point toward rate hikes or unchanged rates; the likelihood of a rate ceiling cut remains zero.; Newly added news reports during this observation period further solidify the judgment that the Fed will not lower the upper bound of its federal funds target range at either the October or December meetings. CME FedWatch data cited in multiple reports shows market expectations for a 25-basis-point hike in October are as high as 67.5%, with a 32.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged; for the December meeting, the market even anticipates a cumulative 50-basis-point hike with over 50% probability. Additionally, a Citigroup report forecasts the Fed will hold rates steady at both the October and December meetings. All direct news evidence shows no sign of a rate cut, completely contradicting the topic of a 'rate ceiling cut.' The baseline likelihoods show a 0.95% probability of a cut before October and a 3.90% probability before December, both at extremely low levels. With no news evidence supporting a cut, no news evidence adjustment is warranted.