Dems win WI governor 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Aug 13, 2026 UTC — The Democratic primary concluded with establishment candidate Crowley narrowly defeating a more left-wing rival, averting a potential general election risk; the current likelihood of a Democratic win holds at 76.5%.; Wisconsin's Democratic primary ended with a narrow victory for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who defeated self-described socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong by less than one percentage point. The outcome removes a significant liability for the party, as the establishment had campaigned heavily against Hong, arguing her past calls to defund the police would be a major vulnerability against the Republican nominee. Though the primary was fiercely contested, the ultimate nominee did not stray from the moderate lane, leaving the party's overall prospects of holding the governor's office largely intact.
2. Aug 14, 2026 UTC — With the primary settled, establishment candidate Crowley's nomination removes the general election risk posed by a left-wing rival, nudging the likelihood of a Democratic win up to 77.5%.; The Wisconsin governor's race continued to digest the primary results this period, with the likelihood of a Democratic win edging up from 76.5% to 77.5%. The shift reflects further consolidation around the primary outcome: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated progressive rival Francesca Hong by less than a percentage point, averting the risk that her past comments on defunding the police would become a general election liability against the Republican nominee. With no major new developments emerging, the current assessment reinforces the prior view rather than reassessing it based on fresh evidence.
3. Aug 15, 2026 UTC — The race has entered a quiet phase, with Democratic nominee Crowley maintaining his post-primary advantage and the current likelihood of a win holding steady at 77.5%.; The Wisconsin governor's race saw no notable developments in the past 24 hours, leaving the likelihood of a Democratic victory unchanged at 77.5%. Following the primary, Democrats have quickly coalesced around Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, while Republicans have yet to launch an effective attack or define their opponent through advertising. This news vacuum means the current assessment rests entirely on a confirmation of the existing landscape: Crowley, as an establishment candidate, holds a structural advantage over the Republican nominee in a high-turnout presidential election year.
4. Aug 16, 2026 UTC — The race remains quiet with no new developments, as the Democratic win likelihood edges down to 76.5%.; The Wisconsin governor's race extended its news vacuum over the past 24 hours, with no new campaign activities, polling data, or significant events emerging. The current likelihood of a Democratic win edged down slightly from 77.5% to 76.5%, a minor adjustment reflecting natural consolidation of the existing lead in the absence of fresh positive signals, rather than any fundamental shift in the race. Democratic nominee Crowley continues to hold a structural advantage over the Republican field, buoyed by post-primary party unity and expectations of high turnout in a presidential election year.
5. Aug 17, 2026 UTC — The race remains quiet with no new developments, as the Democratic win likelihood edges down to 75.5%.; The Wisconsin governor's race extended its news vacuum over the past 24 hours, with no new campaign activities, polling data, or significant events emerging. The current likelihood of a Democratic win edged down from 76.5% to 75.5%, a minor adjustment reflecting natural consolidation of the existing lead in the absence of fresh positive information, rather than any material shift in the race's fundamentals. Democratic candidate Crowley continues to hold a structural advantage over the Republican, buoyed by post-primary party unity and expectations of high turnout in a presidential election year.
6. Aug 18, 2026 UTC — The news vacuum persists, with the Democratic win likelihood ticking back up to 77.5%.; The Wisconsin governor's race remained in a news vacuum over the past 24 hours, with no new campaign activities, polling releases, or significant political events. The Democratic win likelihood rebounded from 75.5% to 77.5%, recovering the slight dip from the previous cycle. In the absence of new information, this fluctuation reflects a reaffirmation of the existing structural advantage rather than a change in the race's fundamentals. Democratic candidate Crowley continues to hold a lead over the Republican challenger, buoyed by post-primary party unity and favorable turnout expectations in a presidential election year.
7. Aug 19, 2026 UTC — The news vacuum persists, with the Democratic win likelihood holding steady at 77.5%.; The Wisconsin governor's race continued its news vacuum over the past 24 hours, with no new campaign activities, polling data, or significant political events emerging. The current likelihood of a Democratic win held steady at 77.5%, unchanged from the previous period. In the absence of new information, this stability suggests that the structural advantages built by Democratic candidate Crowley—post-primary party consolidation and favorable turnout expectations in a presidential election year—remain unchallenged and undiminished by any external factors.
8. Aug 20, 2026 UTC — The news vacuum continues, with the Democratic win likelihood holding steady at 77.5%.; The Wisconsin governor race saw absolutely no new campaign developments, polling releases, or relevant political events over the past 24 hours, extending the ongoing information vacuum. The Democratic win likelihood remains steady at 77.5%, showing no movement. This calm reflects the structural advantage that Democratic candidate Crowley built after the primary—including smooth party consolidation and favorable turnout expectations in a presidential election year—which remains unchallenged in the absence of new information.
9. Aug 21, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds steady at 77.5%, as a federal-level scandal shows no observable impact on the state race.; The Wisconsin governor's race itself remained in a news vacuum over the past 24 hours, but a national political event entered the frame: California Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for sexual misconduct allegations. While the story has drawn attention at the federal level and follows a pattern of lawmakers resigning under similar probes in 2026, there is no indication it has any connection to the Wisconsin race. The current Democratic win likelihood remains at 77.5%, unchanged, suggesting this distant scandal has not yet shaken Crowley's structural advantages in Wisconsin.
10. Aug 22, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood rises to 81.5%, though the shift is driven entirely by baseline data with no new evidence events this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured during this monitoring window, leaving the race itself in an information lull. The current Democratic win likelihood rose from 77.5% to 81.5%, a 4-percentage-point increase, but this shift is entirely attributable to baseline data updates rather than new campaign developments or political events. The scandal involving California Congressman Jimmy Gomez, noted in the previous period, saw no further fallout and no sign of spillover into the Wisconsin race. With no fresh evidence, Crowley's structural advantage remains the central basis for the current assessment.
11. Aug 23, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood fell from 81.5% to 78.5%, with no new evidence events this period; the shift is entirely driven by baseline data.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured in this monitoring window, as the race remains in a quiet period. The current likelihood of a Democratic win fell from 81.5% to 78.5%, a 3-percentage-point decline driven entirely by baseline data updates rather than new campaign developments or political events. The scandal involving California Congressman Gomez, noted in the previous period, saw no further fallout and no signs of spillover into the Wisconsin race. In the absence of new evidence, Crowley's structural advantage remains the core basis for the current assessment, though the slight baseline pullback suggests a modest cooling in the overall outlook.
12. Aug 24, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood rebounded from 78.5% to 80.5%, with no new evidence events this period; the shift is entirely driven by baseline data.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race appeared during this monitoring window, as the race remains in an information lull. The current Democratic win likelihood rebounded from 78.5% to 80.5%, a 2 percentage-point increase driven entirely by baseline data updates rather than new campaign developments or political events. In the absence of fresh evidence, Crowley's structural advantages remain the core basis for the current assessment, though the modest baseline uptick suggests a slight warming in the overall evaluation.
13. Aug 25, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 80.5%, with the period's sole event centered on the federal House race and having no direct bearing on the Wisconsin governor election.; One high-signal event was detected this period: a private meeting between House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Trump adviser Jared Kushner. The discussion centered entirely on the battle for control of the U.S. House and did not touch on the Wisconsin governor's race. The current likelihood of a Democratic win remains flat at 80.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new campaign developments at the state level, incumbent Governor Crowley's structural advantage continues to underpin the high likelihood reading, and the information environment this period offered no new evidence to alter that assessment.
14. Aug 26, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds steady at 80.5%, with no relevant events this period and the race remaining in a quiet state.; The monitoring window captured no events directly or indirectly related to the Wisconsin governor race, leaving the information environment entirely blank. The current likelihood of a Democratic win remains at 80.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new developments, the structural advantage enjoyed by incumbent Governor Crowley in seeking reelection continues to underpin the high likelihood assessment, and this period provides no evidence to either weaken or strengthen that judgment.
15. Aug 27, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds steady at 80.5%, with no relevant events this period and the race remaining in a quiet state.; No events directly or indirectly related to the Wisconsin governor's race were captured during this monitoring window, leaving the information environment completely blank. The current likelihood of a Democratic win remains at 80.5%, unchanged from the prior period. With no new developments, the inherent incumbency advantage of Governor Crowley's re-election bid continues to serve as the foundational logic underpinning the current high-likelihood assessment, and no evidence emerged this period to either weaken or strengthen that judgment.
16. Aug 28, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds steady at 80.5%, with no relevant events this period and the race remaining in a quiet state.; No events directly or indirectly related to the Wisconsin governor's race were captured during this monitoring window, leaving the information environment completely blank. The current likelihood of a Democratic win remains at 80.5%, unchanged from the prior period. With no new developments, the inherent incumbency advantage of Governor Crowley's reelection bid continues to serve as the foundational logic underpinning the current high likelihood assessment, and no evidence emerged this period to either weaken or strengthen that judgment.
17. Aug 29, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds steady at 80.5%, with no relevant events this period and the race remaining in a quiet state.; No events directly or indirectly related to the Wisconsin governor's race were captured during this monitoring window, leaving the information environment completely blank. The current likelihood of a Democratic win remains at 80.5%, unchanged from the prior period. With no new developments, the inherent incumbency advantage of Governor Crowley's re-election bid continues to serve as the foundational logic underpinning the current high-likelihood assessment, and no evidence emerged this period to either weaken or strengthen that judgment.
18. Aug 30, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds steady at 80.5%, with no relevant events this period and the race remaining in a quiet state.; No events directly or indirectly related to the Wisconsin governor's race were captured during this monitoring window, leaving the information environment completely blank. The current likelihood of a Democratic win remains at 80.5%, unchanged from the prior period. With no new developments, the inherent incumbency advantage of Governor Crowley's re-election bid continues to serve as the foundational logic underpinning the current high-likelihood assessment, and no evidence emerged this period to either weaken or strengthen that judgment.
19. Aug 31, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds steady at 80.5%, with no relevant events this period and the race remaining in a quiet state.; No events directly or indirectly related to the Wisconsin governor's race were captured during this monitoring window, leaving the information environment completely blank. The current likelihood of a Democratic win remains at 80.5%, unchanged from the prior period. With no new developments, the inherent incumbency advantage of Governor Crowley's re-election bid continues to serve as the foundational logic underpinning the current high-likelihood assessment, and no evidence emerged this period to either weaken or reinforce that judgment.
20. Sep 1, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood edges up to 81.5%, with no new events this period and the race remaining quiet.; The monitoring window again captured no developments related to the Wisconsin governor's race, leaving the information environment blank. The current likelihood of a Democratic win inched up from 80.5% to 81.5%. In the absence of new evidence, this slight uptick suggests the inherent advantage of incumbent Governor Crowley's reelection bid has been further solidified over time. With no new events to disrupt the picture, the core logic from the previous judgment—that Crowley's incumbency advantage underpins the high likelihood assessment—remains intact and unchallenged this period.
21. Sep 2, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 81.5%, with no new events this period and the race remaining quiet.; No developments related to the Wisconsin governor race appeared in this monitoring window, leaving the information environment blank. The current likelihood of a Democratic win held steady at 81.5%, unchanged from the prior period. In the absence of new evidence, this elevated reading reflects the inherent advantage of incumbent Governor Crowley's re-election bid. With no new events to challenge it, the logic underpinning the previous judgment—that Crowley's incumbency is the core pillar of the high likelihood assessment—remains intact and unchallenged this period.
22. Sep 3, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood edges up to 82.5%, as the Massachusetts primary result reinforces the incumbency-advantage logic.; The sole development this period came from Massachusetts, where 80-year-old incumbent Senator Markey decisively defeated challenger Moulton, who had centered his campaign on age and generational change. Though from a different state, the victory offers a national footnote: Democratic primary voters showed strong inertial support for an experienced incumbent, and the generational-change argument failed to gain traction. This signal aligns closely with the underlying logic of Governor Crowley's reelection bid in Wisconsin, further solidifying his structural incumbency advantage. The current likelihood reading consequently edged up 1 percentage point to 82.5%.
23. Sep 4, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 82.5%, with no new developments this period to challenge the incumbency-advantage logic.; This period entered a brief news lull, with no events captured that are directly related to the Wisconsin governor's race or sufficient to shift the national-level assessment. The 'incumbency advantage' narrative, reinforced by the earlier Massachusetts primary, remains fully intact in the absence of new information. The current likelihood reading held steady at 82.5%, reflecting that Governor Crowley's structural advantage as a reelection-seeking incumbent is temporarily stable.
24. Sep 5, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 82.5%, as the Missouri redistricting ruling has no direct bearing on the Wisconsin governor's race.; The only events captured this period both concern the Missouri Supreme Court's decision to block a GOP-drawn congressional map. While the ruling benefits Democrats in the national fight for House seats, it has no direct connection to the Wisconsin governor's race. Governor Crowley's incumbency advantage remains unchallenged by any state-level or nationally impactful developments. The current likelihood holds steady at 82.5%, reflecting an intact incumbency narrative in the absence of Wisconsin-specific campaign dynamics.
25. Sep 6, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 82.5%, with no relevant events driving any change this period.; No evidence events directly or indirectly related to the Wisconsin governor's race were captured during this monitoring window. With no new information entering the picture, the incumbency advantage narrative for Governor Crowley remains undisturbed, and the current likelihood reading holds steady at 82.5%. The quiet itself is informative — the race has yet to enter a phase of high-frequency engagement, and neither camp has released signals capable of shifting the fundamentals.
26. Sep 7, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood remains at 82.5%, with no new events injected this period.; No evidence events related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured during this monitoring window. With no new information entering the picture, the incumbency advantage narrative for Governor Crowley remains undisturbed, and the current likelihood reading holds steady at 82.5%. The race remains in a relatively quiet phase, with neither camp releasing signals that would shift the baseline assessment.
27. Sep 8, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood edges up to 83%, with no new events injected this period.; The monitoring window again captured no evidence events directly tied to the Wisconsin governor's race. In this information vacuum, the incumbency advantage narrative surrounding Governor Crowley continues to dominate the assessment, with the current likelihood reading ticking up 0.5 percentage points to 83%. The race remains in a relatively quiet phase, with neither camp releasing signals that would alter the baseline assessment.
28. Sep 9, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 83.5%, with no new events injected this period.; No evidence events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race appeared during this monitoring window. In the ongoing information vacuum, the incumbency advantage narrative for Governor Crowley continues to anchor the assessment, with the current likelihood reading edging up 0.5 percentage points to 83.5%. The race remains in a relatively quiet phase, with neither camp releasing signals that would shift the baseline assessment.
29. Sep 10, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood flat at 83.5%, with no new evidence events this period.; No evidence events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race appeared during this monitoring window. In the ongoing information vacuum, the incumbent advantage narrative for Governor Crowley continues to anchor the assessment, with the current likelihood reading holding steady at 83.5%. The race remains in a relatively quiet phase, with neither camp releasing signals that would shift the baseline assessment.
30. Sep 11, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood edges down to 82.5%, with the Fetterman controversy introducing slight uncertainty.; Pennsylvania Democratic Senator Fetterman's surprise video appearance at a Republican convention, where he praised a GOP colleague, drew sharp intraparty criticism. While not directly tied to the Wisconsin governor's race, the episode exposes Democratic fault lines on the eve of the midterms, potentially undercutting the party's unity narrative in key swing states. The current likelihood dipped 1 percentage point to 82.5%, reflecting mild negative noise from the incident, though Governor Crowley's incumbency advantage remains the dominant story.
31. Sep 12, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 82.5%, as Trump's national campaign pledge shows no direct impact on the Wisconsin governor race.; During this period, former President Trump made a national cash dividend pledge at the Republican midterm convention, but the event did not directly involve the Wisconsin governor race. Reports indicate the proposal's feasibility is widely questioned within the GOP and the media, with Vice President Vance appearing to walk it back. Lacking a direct link to the Wisconsin contest and with Governor Crowley's incumbency advantage narrative unchallenged, the public baseline reference price held steady at 82.5%.
32. Sep 13, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 82.5%, as Trump's national campaign pledge shows no direct impact on the Wisconsin governor race.; This period saw former President Trump propose a national cash dividend at the Republican midterm convention, but the event had no direct bearing on the Wisconsin governor's race. Reports indicate the pledge's feasibility faced broad skepticism within the GOP and the media, with Vice President Vance appearing to downplay the proposal. Given the absence of a direct link to the Wisconsin contest and no challenge to Governor Crowley's incumbency advantage narrative, the public baseline reference price remains unchanged at 82.5%.
33. Sep 14, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 82.5%, as Republican candidate Tiffany's plane incident does not constitute a major variable capable of shifting the race.; This period saw Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany involved in an emergency plane landing in Wisconsin, sustaining only minor injuries. While the incident drew widespread attention, the reporting focused on the accident itself and Tiffany's personal safety, without touching on policy debates, campaign dynamics, or shifts in voter sentiment. With no new evidence challenging Democratic incumbent Governor Crowley's position, the baseline reference price remains unchanged at 82.5%.
34. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 83.5%, as reports of Obama urging the party to focus on AI oversight do not directly touch the Wisconsin governor's race.; This period's main signal came from reports that former President Obama is urging Democrats to make AI oversight a central party priority. The development reflects federal-level policy positioning by Democratic leadership but does not touch on the specific dynamics of the Wisconsin governor's race, candidate contrasts, or voter sentiment. With no new evidence challenging Republican candidate Tiffany or shifting the state-level landscape, the baseline likelihood edged up 1 percentage point to 83.5%, and the news evidence itself does not warrant an adjustment.
35. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — Democratic win likelihood holds at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor's race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. In the absence of new evidence to support any adjustment to the current assessment of the race, the judgment from the prior period is maintained.
36. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new evidence to support any adjustment to the current assessment, the prior judgment state is maintained.
37. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new evidence to support any adjustment to the current assessment, the previous judgment state is maintained.
38. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new evidence to support any adjustment to the current assessment, the previous judgment is maintained.
39. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new evidence to support any adjustment to the current assessment of the race, the previous judgment state is maintained.
40. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new evidence to support any adjustment to the current race assessment, the previous period's judgment state is maintained.
41. Sep 22, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor's race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. In the absence of new evidence to support any adjustment to the current assessment of the race, the previous period's judgment state is maintained.
42. Sep 23, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous cycle. With no new evidence to support any adjustment to the current assessment, the prior judgment state is maintained.
43. Sep 24, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new directly relevant news events in this period.; No news events directly related to the Wisconsin governor race were captured in this period. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new evidence to support any adjustment to the current assessment of the race, the previous judgment state is maintained.
44. Sep 25, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, as the new event reflects national midterm dynamics without directly altering the Wisconsin governor race.; A news event emerged this period detailing a spending frenzy in the US midterm elections, showing Republicans significantly outspending Democrats in key Senate races. However, the report focuses on national Senate battles and provides no evidence directly relevant to the Wisconsin governor race. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new information specific to the state's gubernatorial contest, the prior judgment is maintained.
45. Sep 26, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with no new events occurring in this period.; No new events emerged during this period, providing no basis to alter the assessment of the Wisconsin governor race. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no new information to process, the prior judgment is maintained.
46. Sep 27, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 83.5%, with new event unrelated to the race.; A new event emerged this period, but it concerns a fraternity hazing investigation at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, entirely unrelated to the partisan competition or candidate dynamics of the 2026 governor race. The incident does not constitute evidence affecting Democratic or Republican electoral prospects. The baseline likelihood remains at 83.5%, unchanged from the previous period. With no election-relevant information to process, the prior judgment state is maintained.
47. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 80.5%, with new polling showing Latino voters shifting to Democrats but not directly addressing the Wisconsin governor race.; One new event emerged this period: multiple polls show Latino voters shifting sharply toward Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms, with 59% of Latino voters favoring Democratic candidates in the NBC/Telemundo poll, nearly double their 2024 support. This reflects a national trend that could indirectly benefit Democrats in Wisconsin, but it provides no direct evidence about the state's governor race. The baseline likelihood remains at 80.5%, unchanged from the previous period. Given the lack of Wisconsin-specific polling or candidate developments, the previous judgment is maintained.
48. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 80.5%, with no new evidence directly addressing the Wisconsin governor race this period.; Two events emerged this period, neither directly related to the Wisconsin governor race. The first concerned the Texas Senate campaign, where Democrat James Talarico returned to the trail after a flu absence and Trump called for a debate with Republican incumbent Ken Paxton; the second was Trump's diesel deal with Putin easing sanctions, drawing condemnation from Zelensky and criticism from US senators. Neither report provided direct information on the Wisconsin governor race, so the previous judgment is maintained. The baseline likelihood remains at 80.5%, unchanged from the prior period.
49. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable at 80.5%, with no new evidence directly addressing the Wisconsin governor race this period.; Neither of the two events this period directly bears on the Wisconsin governor race. The first concerns federal agents executing a search warrant at Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar's DC-area home in an immigration fraud probe, which she denies and calls an abuse of power; the second event carries no substantive content. Neither report provides direct information on the Wisconsin governor contest, so the previous judgment is maintained. The baseline likelihood holds at 80.5%, unchanged from the prior period.
50. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable around 81%, with no new evidence directly addressing the Wisconsin governor race this period.; The only event this period concerns Georgia Senator Ossoff stating he has no interest in a presidential run and focusing on his Senate re-election, which bears no direct relation to the Wisconsin governor race. The report provides no direct information on Wisconsin's gubernatorial contest, so the previous judgment is maintained. The baseline likelihood edged up from 80.5% to 81%, but this movement lacks direct news support and may reflect other market factors.
51. Oct 16, 2026 UTC — Judgment maintained, Democratic win likelihood stable around 80%, with no new evidence directly addressing the Wisconsin governor race this period.; No new events or news reports directly addressing the Wisconsin governor race arrived this period. The baseline likelihood edged down from 81% to 80.5%, but this movement lacks direct news support and may reflect other market factors. With no new direct evidence, the previous judgment is maintained.