TechnologyTracking
If US confirms extraterrestrial life by Oct 31, 2026, how would it affect science policy and public perception?
With only about a 1.25% probability that the US officially confirms extraterrestrial life by October 31, 2026, if such a declaration were to occur, how would it reshape global scientific policy and public perception of UFO phenomena?
Current read
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How we read it
Starting public context
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.