Question tracking
Get a current estimate, save it, and see how it changes with new information.
WorldTracking
Glucksmann won the center-left primary with 66.13%, vowing to break with Mélenchon and stop Le Pen, but left-wing infighting may split votes, favoring the far right.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The DOJ has opened an antitrust probe into five TV networks, but current evidence does not show self-censorship or harm to press freedom.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The ICE shooting in NYC sparked intense federal-local conflict, but reports so far show no legal balance shift; future litigation or legislation is needed.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
After state election losses, CDU internal divisions over the AfD 'firewall' policy have intensified, but no evidence shows an official federal-level policy change.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Ambassador Guilfoyle resigned amid allegations of soliciting $100,000 and promising government access; the State Department IG is investigating, but evidence does not show changes to ethics review standards or regulations.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The US sanctioned ICC officials with asset freezes and visa bans over its investigation of Israeli leaders, potentially weakening the Court's investigative capacity and raising concerns about long-term damage to international justice.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The Trump administration suspended Russian diesel sanctions to lower prices, drawing criticism from Germany, the EU, and Finland; reports do not establish a long-term shift in U.S. sanctions policy.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The Pentagon plans to livestream Hasan's December 3 execution by firing squad, but legal basis is unclear; UCMJ lacks livestream provisions, drawing bipartisan criticism and potential legal delays.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
If true, Apple-LG smart home device collaboration would intensify competition with Amazon Ring and Google Nest and potentially bolster Apple's HomeKit ecosystem, but official confirmation is lacking and impact magnitude remains unknown.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
SpaceX's acquisition of Grain Management, including 14MHz low-band spectrum, signals entry into mobile market, but its spectrum is far smaller than incumbents', so long-term competitive and pricing impacts remain uncertain.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Evidence shows accelerating decline of fuel-vehicle market, pushing traditional automakers to accelerate transition and reshaping employment, but lacks specifics on transition pace or net job changes.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The EU plans a four-year import quota on Chinese hybrids starting at 350,000 units with 6% annual growth, aiming to reduce the trade deficit, but reports do not provide actual data on deficit or consumer costs.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
GPT-6.1 Sol's default context rises to 500k; API pricing within 500k is unchanged, but inputs over 272k are billed at 2x input and 1.5x output for the whole request; latency impact remains unclear.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Long-context LLMs improve knowledge workers' efficiency in handling long documents and complex tasks, and foster new skills like context engineering, though direct evidence on specific job changes is lacking.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
FinanceTracking
Anthropic's IPO timeline still points to November, but valuation expectations have been cut from ~$2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, and New York City's comptroller has publicly urged a delay, raising near-term uncertainty.
Latest development: Reuters exclusively reported investors tempering Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over slowing revenue growth
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 基民盟退席后，齐格蒙德能否获得42票存在不确定性，取决于其他政党（如社民党、绿党、左翼党等）的投票行为以及是否出现倒戈议员。
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 事件细节仍存争议，吉尔福伊尔否认指控，且白宫公开要求辞职的具体原因未完全披露。后续调整方向取决于调查结果和政治考量。
WorldTracking
Military clash occurs
23.5%
Observation: Ukraine reported SpaceX suddenly imposed a 160 km/h speed limit on Starlink-connected drones, disrupting missions including interception of Russian Shahed drones
WorldTracking
The international community should promote independent investigations via the UN and IMO, enhance Black Sea shipping safety cooperation, explicitly prohibit attacks on civilian vessels, and consider preventive deployments or escorts.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
The EU AI Act has taken effect in stages; open-source models must meet transparency duties unless shown to pose no systemic risk. Future impact depends on enforcement and guidance.
Latest development: New evidence shows transparency rules for general-purpose AI models took effect on Aug 2, 2026, with enforcement possible; open-source models are covered.
TechnologyTracking
If no buyer emerges, Character.AI will wind down; user data fate is undecided, with export available and 40 state AGs demanding protection.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round ended with no majority winner; Lula and Bolsonaro advanced to a runoff, which will shape Brazil's political landscape and policy direction.
Latest development: Provides clear information on the first-round results and the runoff matchup.
TechnologyTracking
Microsoft Decision-1, post-trained on Alibaba's Qwen3.5-9B, leads in 36 tests including our assessmentBench, indicating Chinese base models' competitiveness in decision tasks, though benchmark authority and independent verification remain unconfirmed.
WorldTracking
The Hamburg trial of Ukrainian officer Serhiy K. over Nord Stream sabotage may strain German-Ukrainian relations and push Europe to strengthen accountability for critical infrastructure, but the impact depends on the verdict.
Watching: 审判结果、乌克兰是否最终被认定参与、以及德国政府是否会因外交压力调整司法进程均存在不确定性。