Clarity Act becomes U.S. law in 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — Ahead of the Senate vote, the bill's prospects have slightly improved due to Trump's concession on ethics provisions, but the final probability still indicates a low likelihood of passage.; The Clarity Act faces a pivotal procedural vote in the Senate, with its fate hanging in the balance. The latest positive development is that former President Trump has agreed to a new bipartisan ethics provision, seen as an effort to garner broader support, which led an analyst to upgrade a related company's rating. Based on this news evidence, the final probability has been adjusted from the previous 17.5% to 20.5%, a news evidence adjustment of +3.0 percentage points. However, multiple media outlets note significant uncertainty around the vote's outcome, suggesting this political concession has not yet been viewed as a decisive turning point.
2. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — On the day of the Senate vote, the bill's prospects have slightly improved due to Trump's concession on ethics provisions, but the probability of passage remains low.; The Clarity Act faces a critical procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday. The latest positive development is that former President Trump has agreed to a new bipartisan ethics provision, a move seen as a final effort to garner broader support. However, multiple media outlets still emphasize significant uncertainty surrounding the vote's outcome, indicating that this political concession is not yet viewed as a decisive turning point. The final probability has risen from the previous 20.5% to 24%, a change of +3.5 percentage points. This is composed of a 21% baseline likelihood and a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment, reflecting this marginal improvement amid an overall pessimistic outlook.
3. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — On the day of the Senate vote, the bill's passage probability has declined due to a baseline pullback, with no new substantive changes in the news evidence.; On the day of the Senate vote for the Clarity Act, its baseline likelihood fell from 21% to 17.5%, a drop of 3.5 percentage points. No new reports on the vote's progress or the bill's content emerged in this period; all six related articles were published in the prior judgment cycle. Consequently, the news evidence adjustment remains unchanged, and the probability decline is entirely driven by the baseline pullback, reflecting market caution ahead of the vote's outcome.
4. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — On the day of the Senate vote, the bill's passage probability has fallen further due to a sharp decline in the baseline likelihood, with no new supportive signals from the news evidence.; On the day of the Senate vote, the baseline likelihood for the Clarity Act plummeted from 17.5% to 12.5%, a drop of 5 percentage points. Newly added news in this cycle primarily confirms the vote is proceeding but offers no new evidence of passage. On the contrary, reports widely highlight the vote's uncertainty, with some analysis even suggesting a delay to 2027. Consequently, the news evidence adjustment remains unchanged, and the current probability is entirely driven by the baseline's pessimistic sentiment.
5. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — Ahead of the Senate procedural vote, bipartisan talks collapsed, leaving the bill's passage outlook bleak. News evidence uniformly shows hopes of securing 60 votes have faded, contradicting the baseline recovery.; On the day of the Senate vote, the baseline likelihood for the Clarity Act rebounded from 12.5% to 16.5%, a 4 percentage point increase. However, the news evidence added this cycle does not support this optimism. On the contrary, multiple reports explicitly state that hopes of securing the 60 votes needed to advance the bill have faded after Republicans rejected a Democratic counteroffer hours before the vote. Market reports also assessed the bill's chance of proceeding at only about 30%. Therefore, despite the baseline recovery, the news evidence adjustment remains negative, applying a -5 percentage point adjustment. Ultimately, the probability of the bill being signed into law in 2026 fell from the previous cycle's 12.5% to 11.5%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points, indicating a very low likelihood of enactment.
6. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — Ahead of the Senate procedural vote, news evidence uniformly shows the bill's chances of securing 60 votes are slim, contradicting the baseline likelihood's continued recovery.; On the day of the Senate vote, the baseline likelihood for the Clarity Act rose further from 16.5% to 20.5%, a 4 percentage point increase. However, the new news evidence this period does not support this optimism. Multiple reports explicitly state that hopes of securing the 60 votes needed to advance the bill have faded after Republicans rejected a Democratic counter-proposal hours before the vote. Market reports also assessed the bill's passage probability at only about 12%. Therefore, despite the baseline recovery, the news evidence adjustment remains negative, applying a -5 percentage point adjustment. Consequently, the probability of the bill being signed into law in 2026 rose from 11.5% in the last period to 15.5%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points, but this is entirely driven by the baseline, and the likelihood of it becoming law remains extremely low.
7. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — Ahead of the Senate procedural vote, news evidence uniformly shows the bill's chances of securing 60 votes are slim, contradicting the baseline likelihood's continued recovery.; On the day of the Senate vote, the baseline likelihood for the Clarity Act was 15.5%. Newly added news evidence this period continues to paint a bleak picture: multiple reports explicitly state that hopes of securing the 60 votes needed to advance the bill have been dashed after Republicans rejected a Democratic counter-proposal hours before the vote. Market reports also assessed the bill's passage probability at only about 12%. Therefore, the news evidence adjustment applied a -5 percentage point adjustment. Ultimately, the probability of the bill being signed into law in 2026 fell from 15.5% in the previous period to 10.5%, a drop of 5.0 percentage points, and its likelihood of becoming law remains extremely low.
8. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — The Senate procedural vote failed, effectively closing the bill's legislative path this year, aligning with the baseline likelihood's sharp decline.; During this period, the Clarity Act failed to secure the 60 votes needed to advance in a key Senate procedural vote, effectively ending its legislative path this year. Following the vote, the baseline likelihood plummeted from 15.5% to 7.0%, reflecting this decisive development. News evidence uniformly confirmed the vote's failure, noting that the bill's prospects were already dim after Republicans rejected a Democratic counter-proposal. As the news evidence and market movement are fully aligned and the event is conclusive, no additional news evidence adjustment is applied. The probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 has fallen to an extremely low level.
9. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — After the Senate vote failed, the bill's legislative path this year is effectively closed, with the baseline likelihood edging lower and no news evidence suggesting a reversal.; The CLARITY Act's failure in a key Senate procedural vote this period effectively ends its legislative path this year. Multiple news reports detailed the vote outcome, consistently noting it fell short of the 60 votes needed to proceed, making passage this year highly unlikely. The baseline likelihood dipped slightly from 7.0% to 6.55%, continuing its post-vote slump. While one report mentioned a motion to reconsider offering a narrow procedural path, this did not alter the consensus that the bill's prospects are dim. As the news evidence fully confirms the bill's failure and aligns with the baseline trend, no additional news evidence adjustment is made.
10. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — After the Senate vote failed, the bill's legislative path this year is effectively closed; the baseline likelihood rebounded slightly but lacks supporting news evidence, leaving the outlook bleak.; News evidence this period continues to confirm the failure of the Clarity Act's procedural vote in the Senate. Multiple outlets detailed the result (50 votes in favor, short of the 60-vote threshold) and agreed that its chances of passing this year have essentially vanished. Coinbase CEO Armstrong commented publicly for the first time, blaming the failure on politics and announcing a shift to working directly with regulators, further signaling that the industry has abandoned hope for legislation this year. Although the baseline likelihood ticked up from 6.55% to 7.95%, this move contradicts the pessimistic tone of the news evidence and lacks any new positive legislative development to support it, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period.
11. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — After the Senate vote failed, the bill's legislative path this year is effectively closed; the baseline likelihood is flat, with no new developments altering this assessment.; This period, news evidence continues to confirm the failure of the CLARITY Act's procedural vote in the Senate. Multiple outlets detailed the result (49 votes in favor, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold) and concur that its chances of passing this year have essentially vanished. Regulators (SEC and CFTC) swiftly rolled out interim rules after the vote, explicitly pivoting to independent action in the absence of legislation, further signaling that the industry and regulators have abandoned hope for a law this year. The baseline likelihood remains flat at 7.95%, consistent with the pessimistic tone of the news evidence and lacking any new positive legislative developments, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period.
12. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — After the Senate rejection, the bill's legislative path this year is effectively closed; the baseline likelihood continues to decline, with no new developments altering this assessment.; During this period, news evidence continues to confirm the failure of the Clarity Act's procedural vote in the Senate. Multiple outlets reported the vote result in detail and agreed that its chances of passing this year have essentially vanished. Regulators (SEC and CFTC) swiftly introduced alternative rules after the vote, clearly pivoting to independent action in the absence of legislation, further indicating that the industry and regulators have abandoned hope for a bill this year. The baseline likelihood fell from 7.95% to 6.1%, consistent with the pessimistic tone of the news evidence and lacking any new positive legislative developments, so no additional news evidence adjustment is applied this period.
13. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — After the Senate rejection, the bill's legislative path this year is effectively closed; the baseline likelihood fluctuated slightly, with no new developments altering this assessment.; During this period, news evidence continues to confirm the fact that the Clarity Act failed in the Senate procedural vote. Multiple reports mentioned the bill's failure to advance as background context when discussing crypto market performance, but no new developments emerged suggesting a potential restart of the legislative process. The baseline likelihood edged up from 6.1% to 6.35%, a fluctuation unsupported by any new positive legislative progress, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made for this period.
14. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — No new legislative progress after the Senate rejection; the path to passage this year remains effectively closed, with the baseline likelihood edging lower.; During this period, news evidence continues to confirm the Clarity Act's failure in the Senate procedural vote. Multiple reports mention the bill's stalled progress as background when discussing crypto market performance, but no new developments suggest the legislative process might restart. The baseline likelihood edged down from 6.35% to 5.9%, a fluctuation unsupported by any new positive legislative progress, so no additional news evidence adjustment is applied.
15. Sep 22, 2026 UTC — No new progress after the Senate rejection; Coinbase CEO declares the bill 'dead,' and the path to passage this year is effectively closed.; News evidence this period continues to confirm the Clarity Act's failure in the Senate procedural vote. The most direct statement came from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who declared the bill effectively 'dead' and noted the industry is pivoting to a regulatory path through the SEC and CFTC. Other reports focused on post-vote market reactions and analyst commentary, with no new developments suggesting a potential restart of the legislative process. The baseline likelihood remains at 5.9%, a level consistent with the extremely low probability of passage this year, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made.
16. Sep 23, 2026 UTC — The bill's 'dead' status is confirmed as regulators pivot to fill the void; the legislative path for this year remains effectively closed.; This period's news evidence further solidifies the judgment that the Clarity Act will not pass this year. Coinbase CEO Armstrong explicitly declared the bill 'dead,' and the latest reports show that regulators like the SEC and CFTC have urgently launched a 'Plan B' to fill the regulatory vacuum after the Senate setback, signaling that the industry's focus has shifted from legislation to administrative rulemaking. While some analysis suggests a theoretical path to revival if Republicans make major concessions on ethics provisions, the extreme time pressure from the Senate recess and the dwindling legislative calendar makes this highly unlikely. The baseline likelihood remains at 5.9%, consistent with the bill's minimal chances, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period.
17. Sep 24, 2026 UTC — The bill's 'dead' status is further confirmed as regulators accelerate 'Plan B'; the legislative path for this year remains effectively closed.; This period's news evidence further solidifies the judgment that the Clarity Act will not pass this year. Coinbase CEO Armstrong has explicitly declared the bill 'dead,' and the latest reports show that regulators like the SEC and CFTC have urgently initiated 'Plan B' to fill the regulatory vacuum after the Senate stall, signaling a shift in industry focus from legislation to administrative rulemaking. Although some analysis suggests a theoretical path to revival if Republicans make major concessions on ethics provisions, the time pressure is immense given the Senate recess and the dwindling days of the current congressional session. The baseline likelihood remains at 5.9%, consistent with the bill's extremely low probability of passage, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period.
18. Sep 25, 2026 UTC — The bill's 'dead' status is confirmed as regulators fully activate 'Plan B'; the legislative path for this year is completely closed.; This period's news evidence puts the final nail in the coffin for the Clarity Act. The Senate's 49-50 vote to defeat the bill is now an uncontested fact. The latest reports have completely shifted focus to regulators' 'Plan B,' with the SEC and CFTC rushing to issue alternative rules to fill the regulatory vacuum, signaling that the industry and policymakers have accepted the legislative failure. Although analysis suggests the bill could theoretically be revived if Republicans make major concessions on ethics provisions, the time pressure is extreme given the Senate recess and the dwindling days of the current congressional session. The baseline likelihood remains at 5.9%, consistent with the bill's very low probability of passage, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period.
19. Sep 26, 2026 UTC — The bill's 'dead' status is maintained as regulators press ahead with 'Plan B'; there is no sign of the legislative path reopening this year.; This period's news evidence further solidifies the judgment that the Clarity Act will not pass this year. Multiple reports confirm the 49-50 Senate vote and detail how the bill stalled due to partisan disagreements over ethics provisions and stablecoin rules. The market's focus has completely shifted to the SEC and CFTC's emergency 'Plan B' to fill the regulatory vacuum, indicating that the industry and policymakers have accepted the legislative failure. While some analysis suggests a theoretical path to revival if Republicans make major compromises, the time pressure is extreme given the Senate recess and the limited days left in the current congressional session. The baseline likelihood remains at 5.9%, consistent with the bill's very low probability of passage, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period.
20. Sep 27, 2026 UTC — The bill's 'dead' status is maintained as regulators press ahead with 'Plan B'; there is no sign of the legislative path reopening this year.; This period's news further solidifies the judgment that the Clarity Act will not pass this year. Multiple reports confirm the 49-50 Senate vote and detail how the bill stalled due to partisan disputes over ethics provisions and stablecoin rules. The market's focus has completely shifted to the SEC and CFTC's urgent 'Plan B' to fill the regulatory vacuum, indicating that the industry and policymakers have accepted the legislative failure. While some analysis suggests the bill could theoretically be revived if Republicans make major concessions, the time pressure is immense given the Senate recess and the dwindling days of the current congressional session. The baseline likelihood holds at 5.9%, consistent with the bill's extremely low probability of passage, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period.