Will US-Iran ceasefire hold beyond Oct 15, 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrenc
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 62%.; As of October 12, 2026, the evidence shows a US-Iran ceasefire was signed on June 15 but failed to hold, leading to renewed confrontation; on October 9, Trump said he would not launch military strikes on Iranian soil before the November 3 midterms, but the next day's situation is unclear. Another report mentions a June 10 memorandum extending the ceasefire by 60 days, with details pending negotiation. These reports indicate the ceasefire has been fragile, and the latest status (October 12) is not documented, so it cannot be confirmed that the ceasefire remains in effect after October 15, 2026.
3. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 67%.; As of October 14, 2026, the available evidence shows that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, initially reached as a 60-day memorandum of understanding on May 23, 2026, was extended by 60 days and scheduled for formal signing on June 19, but details remained under negotiation, and Iran's Supreme National Security Council explicitly stated that 'this does not mean the end of war.' These reports do not provide direct information on whether the ceasefire will remain in effect after October 15, nor do they mention any major military conflict or formal termination of the agreement. Therefore, this evidence cannot establish whether the ceasefire will hold past the deadline; the key uncertainty lies in subsequent negotiations and compliance by both sides.
4. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 67%.; As of October 13, 2026, reports indicate that the US-Iran ceasefire remains in effect but is described as "extremely fragile," with no comprehensive peace agreement reached and Iran's seven conditions not fully accepted by the US. These reports confirm the ceasefire's existence and persistence but provide no clear information on whether it will continue beyond October 15. Thus, the evidence supports the ceasefire's current validity but cannot establish its continuation past the deadline.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.