WorldResolved
US ceasefire against Iran continues through Aug 31?
Current likelihood has fallen to zero, with the ceasefire judged to have completely collapsed.
Question tracking
Ask a question. Follow the answer.
Get a current estimate, save it, and see how it changes with new information.
Tracked questions
Resolved questions
No
FinanceResolved
Bitcoin reaches $80,000 in August?
Current likelihood hit 100%, yet the news vacuum remains absolute and only about 7 days remain.
Yes
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by Aug 22, 2026?
The deadline has passed, current likelihood drops to zero, with no US announcement to end the Iranian blockade.
No
WorldResolved
US-Iran 60-day talks extended?
Current likelihood falls to zero with no new events, the judgment that the negotiation window is completely shut remains unchanged.
No
FinanceResolved
Bitcoin reaches $72,500 in August?
Current likelihood remains at 100%, with the target being reached treated as a certainty.
Yes
FinanceResolved
WTI hits $85 in August?
Current likelihood hit 100%, but with no new events in the period, the synthesized read remains unchanged.
Yes
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 15?
Current likelihood remains at 0%, with no new events in this period and the political preconditions for ending the blockade still absent.
No
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 9?
Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal.
No
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 7?
Current likelihood dropped to zero, with no relevant events occurring in the window.
No
Question trackingResolved
Spider-Man beats Endgame opening?
There is currently no meaningful information to assess the likelihood of the film breaking the record.
Yes
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Jul 31?
The event window closed on July 31, 2026, with current likelihood at zero and no US announcement ending the Iranian blockade.
No
FinanceResolved
NVIDIA top market cap on Jul 31?
current likelihood hits 100% as the judgment window closes, confirming NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap.
Yes
WorldResolved
US halts Iran ops by Jul 31?
current likelihood has risen to 100% that the US will announce a halt to offensive operations, unaffected by recent military escalations.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Fed holds rates after July 2026?
current likelihood has fully priced in the Fed holding rates steady at the July meeting, with the probability hitting 100%, and no new events this period challenged that certainty.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Fed hikes 25bps after July 2026?
current likelihood fell a further 0.1 pp to 0.0%, with the probability of a rate hike now completely zero.
No
WorldResolved
Trump meets Netanyahu by Jul 31?
current likelihood hit 100%, meeting has occurred; confirmed by events this period.
Yes
Question trackingResolved
LeBron on Heat in 2026-27?
current likelihood for "Yes" dropped from 0.05% to 0%, with the possibility now completely zero.
No
FinanceResolved
WTI hits $90 in July?
current likelihood has risen to 100%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July now seen as a complete certainty.
Yes
Question trackingResolved
2026 World Cup winner?
current likelihood shows Spain (100%) has won the championship, with Argentina (0%) defeated, settling the title race.
Spain