Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?

Earlier updates

1. Jul 25, 2026 UTC — current likelihood at 92.5% indicates a meeting is highly likely; no directly relevant events this period, probability unchanged.; During this monitoring period, the synthesized read's predicted probability of a Trump-Netanyahu meeting by July 31, 2026, remained stable at 92.5%, unchanged. While significant geopolitical events occurred, such as Trump threatening to bomb Iran's nuclear facility, none directly involved the scheduling of a U.S.-Israel leaders' meeting, thus having no impact on current likelihood. With only a week until the deadline, the synthesized read continues to expect the meeting to occur with very high certainty.
2. Jul 26, 2026 UTC — current likelihood rose to 94.75%, further increasing the likelihood of a meeting; no directly relevant events this period.; During this monitoring period, the synthesized read-implied probability of a Trump-Netanyahu meeting by July 31, 2026, rose from 92.5% to 94.75%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points. A major trade dispute emerged with the US threatening tariffs on the EU, but this event is unrelated to the US-Israel meeting arrangement and is therefore not the direct driver of the synthesized read movement. With less than a week remaining before the deadline, the continued upward trend in current likelihood further solidifies the expectation that a meeting is highly likely.
3. Jul 27, 2026 UTC — current likelihood rose to 96.4%, indicating a very high probability of a meeting; no directly relevant events this period.; During this monitoring period, the synthesized read's predicted probability of a Trump-Netanyahu meeting by July 31, 2026, rose from 94.75% to 96.4%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points. Although a major controversy emerged involving accusations against the Pentagon for concealing Iran war casualties, this event is not directly related to the scheduling of a US-Israel leaders' meeting and is therefore not the direct driver of the synthesized read movement. With less than a week remaining before the deadline, the continued rise in current likelihood further solidifies the expectation that a meeting is highly likely.
4. Jul 28, 2026 UTC — current likelihood rose to 99.5%, making a meeting near-certain; no directly relevant events this period.; During this monitoring period, the synthesized read-predicted probability of a Trump-Netanyahu meeting by July 31, 2026, surged from 96.4% to 99.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points. Although a major international event occurred—the dismissal of Ukraine's defense minister triggering mass protests—it is entirely unrelated to the scheduling of a US-Israeli leaders' meeting and thus not a direct driver of the synthesized read movement. With only three days remaining before the deadline, current likelihood approaching 100% indicates the synthesized read has essentially concluded the meeting is a certainty.
5. Jul 28, 2026 UTC — current likelihood hit 100%, meeting has occurred; confirmed by events this period.; This monitoring period saw the synthesized read probability for a Trump-Netanyahu meeting by July 31, 2026, rise from 99.5% to 100%, a 0.5 percentage point increase. This movement was driven by direct evidence: multiple outlets reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu traveled to Washington and met with President Trump at the White House on July 28, with both leaders confirming the visit. Additionally, Zelenskyy's meeting with Trump on the same day corroborates a schedule of high-level diplomacy at the White House. With only three days remaining before the deadline, current likelihood at 100% indicates the meeting is now a confirmed fact.