NVIDIA top market cap on Jul 31?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a very low probability (9%) with no change this period.; As of July 30, prediction current likelihood for NVIDIA becoming the world's largest company by market cap on July 31 remains steady at 9%, unchanged from the prior period. The sole relevant event this period was the detention of an NVIDIA employee in Taiwan for allegedly smuggling restricted AI chips to China. Despite the export control implications, the market did not adjust its short-term outlook on NVIDIA's market cap leadership, leaving pricing flat.
2. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a very low probability (11%), a slight increase of 2 percentage points from the previous period.; As of July 30, prediction current likelihood for NVIDIA becoming the world's largest company by market cap on July 31 edged up from 9% to 11%. No new relevant events occurred during this period. The slight movement in current likelihood lacks a clear news-driven catalyst, likely reflecting random walk in a low-liquidity environment or minor adjustments in short-term trader sentiment. The overall assessment remains consistent with the prior period: the probability of NVIDIA achieving this milestone in the short term remains very low.
3. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows a sharp jump in probability to 37%, a 26-percentage-point surge from the previous period, but still below 50%.; During the final hours of trading on July 30, the public signal's implied probability for NVIDIA becoming the world's largest company by market cap on July 31 surged from 11% to 37%. Although no specific news events were captured in this period, such a significant price movement strongly suggests that major positive rumors or undisclosed information were rapidly circulating in the market, driving aggressive bets from traders.
4. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows probability climbing further to 43%, a 6-point gain from the previous period, but still a clear gap from becoming the largest company.; In the final ten minutes before the close on July 30, prediction current likelihood for NVIDIA becoming the world's largest company by market cap on July 31 climbed further from 37% to 43%. Although no specific news events were captured in this period, the continued price increase suggests that the bullish rumors or undisclosed information hinted at in the previous period are still driving sustained buying, keeping market sentiment elevated.
5. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows probability climbing further to 49.55%, a 6.4-point gain from the previous period, approaching the 50% threshold.; In the final five minutes before the close on July 30, prediction current likelihood for NVIDIA becoming the world's largest company by market cap on July 31 climbed further from 43.15% to 49.55%. Although no specific news events were captured in this period, the continued price increase suggests that the bullish rumors or undisclosed information hinted at in the previous period are still driving sustained buying, keeping market sentiment elevated.
6. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows probability surging to 57.65%, an 8.1-point gain in five minutes, breaking through the 50% threshold.; In the final five minutes before the close on July 30, prediction current likelihood surged from 49.55% to 57.65%, decisively breaking through the 50% threshold. Although no specific news events were captured in this period, the sharp price increase indicates that market expectations for NVIDIA topping the global market cap on July 31 have shifted from wait-and-see to clear bullishness, with traders continuing to add positions based on undisclosed information or strong anticipation.
7. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows probability soaring to 70.65%, a 13-point surge in five minutes, with bullish sentiment intensifying sharply.; In the final five minutes before the close on July 30, prediction current likelihood surged again from 57.65% to 70.65%, a single-period jump of 13 percentage points. Although no specific news events were captured in this period, the consecutive price spikes indicate that market expectations for NVIDIA to top the global market cap on July 31 have shifted from bullish to highly confident, with traders betting on this outcome with unprecedented intensity.
8. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows probability retreating to 65.55%, giving back about a third of the previous period's gains, with bullish sentiment cooling slightly.; In the ten minutes following the market close on July 30, prediction current likelihood retreated from 70.65% to 65.55%, a drop of 5.1 percentage points. No news events were captured in this period, suggesting the pullback may stem from profit-taking after the prior rapid surge or a repricing of uncertainty ahead of the next day's open. Despite the decline, the current 65.55% pricing remains elevated, indicating the market still views NVIDIA topping the global market cap on July 31 as the likely outcome.
9. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows probability plunging to 37%, a drop of 28.5 percentage points from the previous period, with bullish sentiment completely reversed.; In the fifteen minutes after the market close on July 30, prediction current likelihood plummeted from 65.55% to 37%, a sharp drop of 28.5 percentage points. No news events were captured during this period, suggesting the violent swing may stem from one or more large sell orders or a fundamental shift in traders' expectations for NVIDIA's market cap performance the next day. The current 37% pricing indicates the market no longer views NVIDIA becoming the world's most valuable company on July 31 as the likely outcome.
10. Jul 30, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows probability surging to 68.7%, a rebound of 31.7 percentage points, with bullish sentiment sharply recovering.; Within five minutes after the market close on July 30, prediction current likelihood sharply rebounded from 37% to 68.7%, a surge of 31.7 percentage points, nearly erasing the previous period's losses. No news events were captured during this period, suggesting the violent reversal may stem from large buy orders or a market correction of the prior plunge. The current 68.7% pricing indicates the market once again views NVIDIA claiming the top global market cap spot on July 31 as the likely outcome.
11. Jul 31, 2026 UTC — current likelihood rises to 78.4%, up another 9.6 percentage points, with bullish sentiment continuing to strengthen.; Following the previous period's surge to 68.7%, prediction current likelihood continued to climb this period, reaching 78.4%—a gain of 9.6 percentage points. Although no relevant news events were captured, the sustained upward movement in pricing indicates that traders are further betting on NVIDIA claiming the top global market cap spot on July 31. With less than a day remaining until the judgment window closes, the 78.4% pricing reflects high market confidence in this outcome.
12. Jul 31, 2026 UTC — current likelihood hits 100% as the judgment window closes, confirming NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap.; On the final day of the judgment period, prediction current likelihood surged from 78.4% to 100%, a jump of 21.7 percentage points. No new events were captured during this window, but the pricing hitting its ceiling at the close signals that traders are fully convinced NVIDIA achieved the milestone on July 31. Combined with the already elevated 78.4% pricing from the prior period, the final outcome aligns with the persistently strengthening bullish expectations.