Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Earlier updates

1. Jul 18, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a very low 4.7% probability of a rate hike, with no new developments this period.; No new evidence or events related to a 25 bps rate hike after the Fed's July 2026 meeting emerged during this monitoring period. current likelihood remained stable at a low 4.7%, unchanged from the start of the period, indicating that likelihood participants overwhelmingly view this outcome as highly unlikely. In the absence of new information, this judgment rests entirely on the existing current likelihood.
2. Jul 19, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of a rate hike has fallen further to 3.8%, with no new developments this period.; During this monitoring period, there were still no new evidence or events related to a 25 bps rate hike after the Fed's July meeting. current likelihood slipped further from 4.7% at the end of the last period to 3.8%, indicating a continued weakening of likelihood expectations for this event. In the absence of new information, this judgment is based entirely on the minor movement in current likelihood.
3. Jul 21, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of a rate hike has rebounded slightly to 6.7%, but there are no new evidence events this period.; No new evidence or events related to a 25 bps rate hike after the Fed's July 2026 meeting emerged during this monitoring period. However, current likelihood rebounded from 3.8% at the end of the previous period to 6.7%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points. In the absence of new information, this judgment is based solely on the slight movement in current likelihood, indicating that while the probability remains low, likelihood sentiment has ticked up slightly.
4. Jul 21, 2026 UTC — current likelihood holds steady at 6.7%, with no new evidence events this period.; During this extremely short monitoring period, no new evidence or events related to a 25 bps rate hike after the Fed's July meeting emerged. current likelihood remained flat at 6.7%, unchanged from the end of the previous period. In the absence of new information, the assessment of a rate hike remains unchanged, with likelihood sentiment stable at a low level.
5. Jul 22, 2026 UTC — current likelihood surged 7.8 pp to 14.6%, yet no new evidence events emerged this period.; Despite the absence of any new evidence events, current likelihood for a 25 bps rate hike after the Fed's July meeting surged from 6.7% to 14.6%, a jump of 7.8 percentage points. This movement suggests a significant shift in likelihood participants' expectations, potentially driven by macroeconomic signals or trading activity not captured in this monitoring period. With no evidence events to link to, the specific driver behind this price action remains unclear.
6. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood surged another 10.2 pp to 24.7%, yet no new evidence events emerged this period.; For the second consecutive monitoring period, despite the absence of any new evidence events, current likelihood for a 25 bps rate hike after the Fed's July meeting surged further from 14.6% to 24.7%, a jump of 10.2 percentage points. This sustained price movement, unsupported by public information, indicates a sharp adjustment in likelihood participants' expectations, though the specific drivers remain unclear and may stem from trading behavior or macroeconomic signals outside the monitoring scope.
7. Jul 24, 2026 UTC — current likelihood edged down 0.3 pp to 24.5%, with no new evidence events this period.; For the third consecutive monitoring period, current likelihood for a Fed rate hike after the July meeting dipped slightly from 24.7% to 24.5%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points, yet no new evidence events emerged. This minor fluctuation suggests likelihood expectations have entered a relatively stable consolidation phase following the previous period's sharp surge. In the absence of public information, the specific drivers behind the synthesized read's current likelihood of around 24.5% remain unclear.
8. Jul 25, 2026 UTC — current likelihood rebounded 2 pp to 26.5%, with no new evidence events this period.; After three consecutive quiet periods, current likelihood for a Fed rate hike after the July meeting rebounded, rising 2 percentage points from 24.5% to 26.5%. Although no new evidence events emerged this period, the price movement reversed the slight decline of the previous period, suggesting a degree of self-correction in likelihood expectations in the absence of public information. The probability of a rate hike has returned to roughly one-quarter, though the specific drivers remain unclear.
9. Jul 26, 2026 UTC — current likelihood plunged 6.6 pp to 19.85%, with no new evidence events this period.; likelihood expectations for a Fed rate hike after the July meeting cooled dramatically this period, with likelihood plunging 6.6 percentage points from 26.45% to 19.85%, completely erasing the previous period's gains and hitting a recent low. With no new evidence events again this period, this sharp price movement suggests a violent reversal in likelihood sentiment without any public information driving it, pushing the probability of a hike below one-fifth.
10. Jul 27, 2026 UTC — current likelihood edged up 0.2 pp to 20.05%, with no new evidence events this period.; likelihood expectations for a Fed rate hike after the July meeting remained essentially flat this period, with likelihood ticking up a negligible 0.2 pp from 19.85% to 20.05%. With no new evidence events again this period, the minimal price movement lacks any discernible public information driver. the synthesized read continues to price a low probability of around one-fifth for a rate hike, consistent with the bearish sentiment at the end of the previous period.
11. Jul 28, 2026 UTC — current likelihood surged 8.2 pp to 28.25%, yet no new evidence events emerged this period.; Despite the continued absence of any new evidence events, current likelihood for a 25 bps rate hike after the Fed's July meeting jumped significantly, rising 8.2 percentage points from 20.05% to 28.25%. This move lacks a clear public information driver and may be attributed to shifts in likelihood liquidity or trader sentiment. While the probability of a hike remains relatively low, it has broken away from the roughly one-in-five level seen in the prior period, indicating a degree of spontaneous warming in likelihood sentiment.
12. Jul 29, 2026 UTC — current likelihood retreated 3.4 pp to 24.85%, with no new evidence events this period.; Amid a continued absence of new evidence events, current likelihood for a 25 bps rate hike after the July Fed meeting pulled back, falling 3.4 percentage points from 28.25% to 24.85%. This move retraces roughly 40% of the previous period's surge, indicating that the prior day's uptick in likelihood sentiment lacked staying power. The probability of a hike has returned to around one-in-four, reflecting two-way volatility in an information vacuum.
13. Jul 29, 2026 UTC — current likelihood plummeted 24.8 pp to 0.05%, with the probability of a rate hike now virtually zero.; In the absence of new evidence events, current likelihood for a 25 bps rate hike after the Fed's July meeting experienced a cliff-like collapse, plunging 24.8 percentage points from 24.85% to 0.05%. This extreme price movement suggests that despite no new fundamental information, likelihood participants may have engaged in massive position unwinding or expectation revisions ahead of the imminent Fed rate decision, completely reversing the prior roughly one-in-four probability of a hike.
14. Jul 29, 2026 UTC — current likelihood fell a further 0.1 pp to 0.0%, with the probability of a rate hike now completely zero.; With no new evidence events, current likelihood for a Fed rate hike after the July meeting continued its previous collapse, falling another 0.1 pp from 0.05% to 0.0%. current likelihood has now completely ruled out any possibility of a rate hike, confirming the total reversal of expectations that began in the prior period.