WTI hits $90 in July?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Jul 22, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a roughly 65.4% probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July, unchanged during this period.; During the monitoring window from July 21 to 22, no significant events were captured that could influence the trajectory of WTI crude oil prices. current likelihood remained stable at around 65.4%, unchanged from the prior period, indicating that traders' expectations for oil prices hitting the $90 mark have not shifted.
2. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a sharp increase in the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July, now at approximately 83.0%, up 17.6 percentage points from the prior period.; During the July 22-23 monitoring window, although no specific news events were captured, prediction current likelihood shifted dramatically. The probability of WTI crude hitting $90 surged from approximately 65.4% to 83.0%, indicating a strong bullish shift in market sentiment or supply/demand expectations not reflected in the captured news flow.
3. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July has climbed further to approximately 91.4%, up 8.5 percentage points from the prior period.; During the brief monitoring window on July 23, despite the absence of new news events, prediction current likelihood continued its strong bullish momentum. The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $90 rose further from approximately 83.0% to 91.4%, indicating that market confidence in the oil price reaching this high in July continued to strengthen even without new public information.
4. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July has retreated to approximately 87.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from the prior period.; During the brief monitoring window on July 23, prediction current likelihood experienced a minor pullback despite the absence of new news events. The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $90 fell from approximately 91.4% in the prior period to about 87.6%, suggesting that the previously strong bullish momentum has cooled somewhat, with some participants possibly taking profits in the absence of fresh information.
5. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July has slipped further to 85%, down another 2.6 percentage points.; During the second monitoring window on July 23, with no new relevant news events emerging, prediction current likelihood continued its retreat. The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $90 fell further from approximately 87.6% to 85%, suggesting that bullish sentiment continued to cool in the absence of fresh positive catalysts, with profit-taking pressure potentially intensifying.
6. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July has surged to 99.95%, a sharp increase of 15 percentage points.; In the third monitoring window on July 23, despite a continued absence of new relevant news events, prediction current likelihood underwent a dramatic reversal. The probability of WTI crude oil hitting $90 surged from the previous level of around 85% to a near-certain 99.95%, a single-period jump of 15 percentage points. This extreme price movement suggests market sentiment has shifted from cautious pullback to extreme optimism, likely driven by significant bullish information occurring outside the window, causing traders to rapidly price in the event's certainty.
7. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood holds steady at 99.95%, indicating a near-certainty that WTI Crude Oil will hit a high of $90 in July.; During the latest monitoring window, prediction current likelihood remained completely unchanged, holding at the extreme level of 99.95%. Concurrently, no new relevant news events emerged in this period. This indicates that after the previous period's dramatic sentiment reversal pushed the probability to near-certainty, there is currently no new information to alter this consensus. The market is in a fully-priced state, awaiting the end of July for final settlement.
8. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood remains at 99.95%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July still seen as a near-certainty.; During this monitoring period, prediction current likelihood remained completely static at the extremely high level of 99.95%, and no new relevant news events emerged. This indicates that since the previous period's dramatic shift in market sentiment pushed the probability to near-certainty, there is currently no new information to challenge this consensus. The market is in a fully-priced state, awaiting the end of July for final settlement.
9. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood remains at 99.95%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July still seen as a near-certainty.; During this monitoring period, prediction current likelihood remained completely unchanged at an extremely high 99.95%, and no new relevant news events emerged. This indicates that since the previous period when market sentiment pushed the probability to near-certainty, there is currently no new information to challenge this consensus. The market is in a fully priced state, awaiting the end of July for final settlement.
10. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood remains at 99.95%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July still seen as a near-certainty.; During this monitoring period, prediction current likelihood remained completely unchanged at an extremely high 99.95%, and no new relevant news events emerged. This indicates that since the previous period when market sentiment pushed the probability to near-certainty, there is currently no new information to challenge this consensus. The market is in a fully priced state, awaiting the end of July for final settlement.
11. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood remains at 99.95%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July still seen as a near-certainty.; During this monitoring period, prediction current likelihood remained completely unchanged at the extremely high level of 99.95%, with no new relevant news events emerging. This indicates that, after market sentiment pushed the probability to near-certainty in the previous period, there is currently no new information to challenge this consensus. The market is in a fully priced state, awaiting the end of July for final settlement.
12. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood remains at 99.95%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July still seen as a near-certainty.; During this monitoring period, prediction current likelihood remained completely unchanged at the extremely high level of 99.95%, and no new relevant news events emerged. This indicates that, after market sentiment pushed the probability to near-certainty in the previous period, there is currently no new information to challenge this consensus. The market is in a fully priced state, awaiting the end of July for final settlement.
13. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood has risen to 100%, with WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July now seen as a complete certainty.; During this monitoring period, prediction current likelihood ticked up from 99.95% to 100%, completely eliminating any remaining uncertainty. Although no new relevant news events emerged, the market, with July drawing to a close, chose to erase the last sliver of doubt, fully pricing in the event of WTI Crude Oil hitting a high of $90 in July.