Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its July 2026 meeting?

Earlier updates

1. Jul 18, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a very high probability (95.95%) that the Fed will leave rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting, with no new events this period to alter that judgment.; This is the initial judgment, and no relevant evidence events were captured in the current window. The sole anchor is the prediction current likelihood, which shows a 95.95% probability of 'no change' and remained flat during the period. The current judgment is therefore based entirely on this stable likelihood expectation.
2. Jul 19, 2026 UTC — current likelihood indicates a very high probability (95.95%) that the Fed will leave rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting, with no new events this period to alter that judgment.; This is the second judgment period, and no relevant evidence events were captured within the window. Prediction current likelihood remained unchanged, with the probability of 'no change in rates' stable at 95.95%. The current judgment is therefore identical to the previous one, with no movement.
3. Jul 21, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting has decreased but remains extremely high (92.65%).; No new evidence events emerged during this period. However, prediction current likelihood saw a slight shift, with the probability of 'no change in rates' falling by 3.3 percentage points from the previous period's 95.95% to 92.65%. While likelihood sentiment has cooled marginally, likelihood still strongly indicates that rates will be left unchanged.
4. Jul 21, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting is stable at 92.65%, unchanged from the previous period.; No new evidence events emerged during this period, and prediction current likelihood was completely stagnant. the synthesized read's likelihood for 'no change in rates' is identical to the end of the previous period, at 92.65%. With no new information to process, the synthesized read's judgment remained unchanged, continuing the high-certainty stance from the prior period.
5. Jul 22, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting dropped sharply from 92.65% to 85.05%, with rate-cut expectations heating up significantly.; Despite a complete absence of new evidence events in this period, the synthesized read prices experienced violent swings. The contract for 'leaving rates unchanged' plummeted by 7.6 percentage points from 92.65% to 85.05%, breaking the previous period's high-certainty standstill. This movement suggests that, without any public news catalyst, likelihood participants drastically reduced their bets on the Fed holding steady, likely driven by internal models, fund flows, or precautionary likelihood ahead of the upcoming meeting.
6. Jul 23, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting plunged further from 85.05% to 75.25%, with rate-cut expectations intensifying dramatically.; During this period, current likelihood for unchanged rates suffered an even sharper sell-off, plunging 9.8 percentage points from 85.05% to 75.25%. This dramatic move coincided with a major geopolitical shock: the collapse of US-Iran peace talks, which sent global oil prices surging past $105 per barrel. The oil spike intensified concerns over the inflation outlook and global economic stability, likely prompting the read to aggressively shift the Fed's policy path, betting that economic pressure will force a pivot to easing.
7. Jul 24, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting slipped further from 75.25% to 73.65%, with rate-cut expectations continuing to strengthen.; During this period, despite the absence of major new events, current likelihood for the Fed holding rates steady continued its previous downward trend, with the probability edging down 1.6 percentage points from 75.25% to 73.65%. This suggests that following the shock of the US-Iran talks breakdown and oil price surge in the prior period, likelihood concerns about the economic outlook are still simmering. the read continue to digest the geopolitical risks and lean towards bets that the Fed will be forced to pivot to an easing policy to counter potential economic headwinds.
8. Jul 25, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting slipped further from 73.65% to 73.25%, with rate-cut expectations continuing to edge higher.; During this period, the major geopolitical event of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers driving oil prices toward $100 intensified likelihood concerns about a rebound in inflation and the economic outlook. Consequently, current likelihood for the Fed holding rates steady continued its downward trend, with the probability edging down 0.4 percentage points from 73.65% to 73.25%. This indicates that the read are digesting the risk of a new supply shock and further betting that the Fed may be forced to pivot to an easing policy in the future to address potential economic pressures.
9. Jul 26, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting rebounded sharply to 78.55%, with rate-cut expectations cooling significantly.; Despite a lack of major new events in this period, current likelihood for the Fed holding rates steady saw a sharp reversal, with the probability rebounding by 5.3 percentage points from 73.25% to 78.55%. This move completely reversed the previous period's downward trend, suggesting the read may be reassessing the rate-cut bets previously driven by geopolitical risks, or are digesting other macro factors not captured in the news flow.
10. Jul 27, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting rose further to 80.05%, with rate-cut expectations continuing to fade.; During this period, current likelihood for the Fed holding rates steady extended the previous period's rebound, climbing another 1.5 percentage points from 78.55% to 80.05%. The primary driver was the news of a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused oil prices to plunge over 33%. This significantly eased the upside inflation risks previously associated with the geopolitical conflict, thereby reducing likelihood bets on Fed rate cuts.
11. Jul 28, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting fell sharply to 71.25%, with rate-cut expectations rising significantly.; During this period, current likelihood for the Fed holding rates steady reversed, with the probability plunging 8.8 percentage points from 80.05% to 71.25%. The primary backdrop for this move was Chinese memory chip giant CXMT's record-breaking IPO, which sparked concerns about liquidity drain and economic rebalancing, potentially heightening uncertainty about the economic outlook and reigniting rate-cut bets.
12. Jul 29, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting rebounded to 74.95%, up 3.7 percentage points from the prior period.; During this window, current likelihood for the Fed holding rates steady rebounded from 71.25% to 74.95%. The primary backdrop was a global semiconductor stock plunge that wiped out roughly $1.5 trillion in likelihood value on AI spending sustainability fears, intensifying risk-off sentiment about the economic outlook and partially reversing the rate-cut bets previously triggered by the CXMT IPO.
13. Jul 29, 2026 UTC — current likelihood shows the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting skyrocketed to 99.95%, surging 25 percentage points from the prior period, nearly fully priced in.; During this period, current likelihood for the Fed holding rates steady experienced a decisive surge, with the probability skyrocketing from 74.95% to a near-certain 99.95%. The primary driver of this dramatic shift was the sharp escalation of the US-Iran military conflict, with tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices above $90. The resulting inflationary risk from the energy price spike completely extinguished any residual likelihood expectations for a near-term rate cut, forcing likelihood to converge sharply towards 'no change'.
14. Jul 29, 2026 UTC — current likelihood has fully priced in the Fed holding rates steady at the July meeting, with the probability hitting 100%, and no new events this period challenged that certainty.; During this period, current likelihood for the Fed holding rates steady edged from 99.95% to 100%, fully locking in the expectation. With no new relevant events occurring in the window, this movement reflects the final convergence of current likelihood rather than a reaction to fresh information. The overwhelming expectation of 'no change,' driven last period by the US-Iran conflict and surging oil prices, was consolidated and confirmed.