WorldTracking
Russia strike Kyiv Oct 20 at 16.5%: significant shift?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Question tracking
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Tracked questions
WorldTracking
Russia strike Kyiv Oct 18 at 13.5%: how will it shift?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
WorldTracking
In Mall of America plot, what responsibility do social media platforms bear for youth radicalization?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 后续可能出现的关于社交媒体平台责任的政策讨论或法律诉讼。
WorldTracking
How will international aviation security adapt to non-state threats after Houthi attacks on Saudi airports?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 国际民航组织、欧盟航空安全局等机构发布新的安全通告或政策调整。
WorldTracking
2026 midterms: Does 50% probability for Democrats winning 4 Tennessee House seats signal political shift?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
WorldTracking
Why is divided Congress (Dem Senate, GOP House) probability below 1% in 2026?
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Resolved questions
WorldResolved
What could break US-Yemen ceasefire despite 93.5% odds?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?
WorldResolved
Will US-Iran ceasefire hold beyond Oct 15, 2026?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Yes
WorldResolved
After US-Yemen ceasefire expires Oct 12, will US strike break it?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Yes
WorldResolved
Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold beyond Oct 12, 2026?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Yes
WorldResolved
Oman and Iran announce Hormuz shipping agreement by Sept 14, 2026?
The deadline has passed with no agreement announced; the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to freedom of navigation, but this does not alter the fact that the agreement failed to materialize.
No
WorldResolved
Iran charges Hormuz fees by Aug 31?
Current likelihood drops to zero, the deadline has passed with no fee-charging event, and the factual basis for the question has completely evaporated.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by Aug 31, 2026?
Current likelihood drops to zero as the deadline passes without a US announcement to end the Iranian blockade, rendering the event impossible.
No
WorldResolved
US ceasefire against Iran continues through Aug 31?
Current likelihood has fallen to zero, with the ceasefire judged to have completely collapsed.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by Aug 22, 2026?
The deadline has passed, current likelihood drops to zero, with no US announcement to end the Iranian blockade.
No
WorldResolved
US-Iran 60-day talks extended?
Current likelihood falls to zero with no new events, the judgment that the negotiation window is completely shut remains unchanged.
No
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 15?
Current likelihood remains at 0%, with no new events in this period and the political preconditions for ending the blockade still absent.
No
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 9?
Current likelihood has dropped to zero, with no signs of reversal.
No
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Aug 7?
Current likelihood dropped to zero, with no relevant events occurring in the window.
No
WorldResolved
US ends Iran blockade by Jul 31?
The event window closed on July 31, 2026, with current likelihood at zero and no US announcement ending the Iranian blockade.
No
WorldResolved
US halts Iran ops by Jul 31?
current likelihood has risen to 100% that the US will announce a halt to offensive operations, unaffected by recent military escalations.
Yes
WorldResolved
Trump meets Netanyahu by Jul 31?
current likelihood hit 100%, meeting has occurred; confirmed by events this period.
Yes