Question trackingResolved
Draw near 0 but cancel=Yes: risk priced?
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FinanceResolved
Is Bitcoin still above $82,000?
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TechnologyResolved
If Demacia Cup postponed past Oct 26, resolves 50-50: market divergence?
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TechnologyResolved
Could SAW Youngsters' 93.5% win probability see an upset?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Counter-Strike: SAW Youngsters vs ILLYRIANS - Map 1 Winner
Question trackingResolved
Is Johnny Speeds' 99.95% map win a foregone conclusion?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs PRIVATE - Map 1 Winner
Question trackingResolved
Could 50-50 settlement rule cause pricing to diverge from actual outcome?
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TechnologyResolved
Will iPhone 18 officially go on sale in 2026?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will WTI crude break above $105 or fall below $95 in September?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?
TechnologyResolved
Which model tops arena.ai text arena Overall on Sep 21, 2026 12:00 ET?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
claude-fable-5.1-max
TechnologyResolved
OpenAI has best AI model at end of Sept 2026?
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No
TechnologyResolved
Anthropic has best AI model at end of Sept 2026?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Yes
FinanceResolved
RBA raises rates by 25 bps at Sept 2026 meeting?
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Yes
FinanceResolved
Will WTI active-month hit $100 or $95 one-minute extremes in week of Sep 14, 2026?
The intraday price break below $95 is now fully substantiated, but the core criterion of a 1-minute candlestick extreme record remains absent; the previous judgment is maintained.
Hit or broke below $100
FinanceResolved
Fed raises rates at Sept 2026 FOMC meeting?
The 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is a settled fact, with market attention shifting to the subsequent rate path for the rest of the year.
Rate hike by October meeting
FinanceResolved
Fed rates unchanged after Sep 2026?
Expectations for no rate change have hit absolute zero. The information vacuum and baseline likelihood bottoming out together confirm this scenario has been completely priced out.
No
WorldResolved
Oman and Iran announce Hormuz shipping agreement by Sept 14, 2026?
The deadline has passed with no agreement announced; the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to freedom of navigation, but this does not alter the fact that the agreement failed to materialize.
No
FinanceResolved
US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.0% before 2027?
Triggered and maintained: All 11 reports in this period continue to confirm the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breached 5.0% during September 15 trading, with the baseline likelihood rising to 100%.
Yes
TechnologyResolved
OpenAI's Astra debuts on Arena with score ≥1490?
GPT-6 Astra's Arena Leaderboard debut has still not occurred, with the market reference price dropping to zero and no new developments.
No
TechnologyResolved
OpenAI's Astra model released by Sept 30, 2026?
Astra has been officially released, and the current likelihood has risen to certainty.
Yes
WorldResolved
Iran charges Hormuz fees by Aug 31?
Current likelihood drops to zero, the deadline has passed with no fee-charging event, and the factual basis for the question has completely evaporated.
No
WorldResolved
US announces end of Iranian blockade by Aug 31, 2026?
Current likelihood drops to zero as the deadline passes without a US announcement to end the Iranian blockade, rendering the event impossible.
No
FinanceResolved
Bitcoin reaches $82,500 in August?
The August window has closed with Bitcoin failing to reach $82,500; the event is definitively resolved as not occurring.
No
Question trackingResolved
Djokovic wins 2026 Men's US Open?
The current likelihood has dropped to zero, with Djokovic's prospects of playing in and winning the tournament now completely closed off.
No
FinanceResolved
Ethereum dips to $2,400 in August?
August has ended with Ethereum not dipping to $2,400, confirming a 'No' outcome, and the current likelihood remains at 100%.
Yes