Question trackingResolved
Draw near 0 but cancel=Yes: risk priced?
In the October 12, 2026 AFC Champions League Elite match between Pakhtakor and Al Qadsiah, the market prices a draw at nearly zero (No at 99.95%), yet the rules state a canceled match would resolve to Yes. Does this imply cancellation risk is priced in, or is the market overlooking this possibility?
Closing recap
Across 2 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows Will Pakhtakor vs. Al Qadsiah end in a draw? 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
Will Pakhtakor vs. Al Qadsiah end in a draw?Closed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This event is for the upcoming AFC Champions League Elite game, scheduled for Monday, October 12, 2026 between Pakhtakor and Al Qadsiah.
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.